Bills 24, Buccaneers 18

The NFL trade deadline is fast approaching (it's tomorrow at 4pm eastern time) and the Buffalo Bills are considered to be buyers rather than sellers. I would certainly hope so. With their 2022 first round pick Kaiir Elam not dressing - a healthy scratch once again - for this past Thursday's game against the Bucs and with Tre White lost for the season, the most urgent need appears to be at cornerback. The NFL doesn't see nearly as much in-season trading (or even off-season trading for that matter) as we see in baseball or hockey but the Bills are really hoping to land some help in the defensive backfield. I've also seen reports that they are looking to bolster the running back position after Damien Harris went down against the Giants. It was rumoured last week that the Bills were leading contenders to land Derrick Henry from Tennessee but the Titans apparently informed Henry a couple of days ago that he will not be moved at the deadline. We'll see what happens but I'm not expecting anything earth shattering. I don't think it's too early any more to declare Elam a bust as a first round draft pick. Soon-to-be 36 year-old Josh Norman, who re-joined the team less then three weeks ago, dressed for the Bucs game while Elam sat. I can't think of a more difficult position to play in professional sports than NFL cornerback (with the possible exception of an NHL goaltender) but Elam seems not to have shown whatever Brandon Beane and the Bills scouting staff foresaw in him when they picked him 23rd overall in April, 2022. Maybe he just doesn't fit in Sean McDermott's defensive scheme. It's hard to say but he has had every opportunity to earn a starting job and just hasn't come through. Maybe he will excel with another team one day but I don't expect him to play much more for the Bills. I hope I'm wrong and that he figures it out and plays many years as a solid starting cornerback in Buffalo but the prospects of that seem remote today.

The game on Thursday against the Bucs was promising in many ways for Bills fans. The offensive game plan was more creative with some no huddle, some Josh Allen designed runs, good ball distribution to players not named Stefon Diggs and it generally looked less predictable and more dangerous. The Bills were clearly the better team on Thursday - I'll stop short of saying that they dominated the game - but, for the third straight game the Bills found a way to allow their opponent to whittle the game down to its last play or close to it before the outcome was decided. The Patriots came away with a win while the Giants and Bucs both had shots to win and each could have had yet another shot after their last ones had pass interference been called as it probably should have been in each case (the Giants should have benefitted from a second consecutive PI call). Pundits refer to this business of letting teams hang around until the end as the lack of ability to "close out games". Good teams seem to have it while bad teams do not. The Bills need to find it again. As I said last week, the Miami game  four weeks ago now feels like it's from another season.

The Bills upcoming schedule will not be kind to those of us who like to watch our teams play on Sunday at 1pm. Thursday's game was the first of three consecutive prime time games followed by four straight games in the 4.25pm Sunday time slot. The Bills will not play again on Sunday at 1pm until New Year's Eve when the Patriots come to Orchard Park. Successful teams with high profile quarterbacks get "rewarded" with these prime time and late afternoon Sunday games which look like fun when the schedule is released in April but in practice, for me anyway, they disrupt my sleep schedule and generally leave me feeling out of sorts. I realize that Patriots fans had to endure this throughout their twenty-year reign as perennial contenders. I wonder if they're happy with their mediocre team and mostly 1pm Sunday time slots. Maybe Tom Brady got out because he just wanted to get some more sleep.   

I watched most of the Bengals game in San Francisco yesterday. As an AFC contender, my default wish was that they would lose but if they had, they would be highly motivated to get back in the win column this week against the Bills. They certainly looked good against one of the better defences in the league and my confidence level in the Bills defence being able to slow them down isn't high at the moment. Mixon can run well and Jamar Chase is a top three receiver in the league. The only way I see the Bills winning in Cincinnati is by a score of something in the range of 41-38. The intangible emotional impact of Damar Hamlin's return to Paycor Stadium almost ten months to the day from his near-death experience is tough to quantify but if it provides an edge to either team, I give it to the Bills, especially if Hamlin is active for the game. Another Sunday Night Football appearance and another late night awaits next weekend. As the song says, I'll be waiting all day for Sunday night......but I'd rather just get it over with right after lunch.       

Patriots 29, Bills 25

Only two coaches in NFL history have more regular season wins under their belts than Patriots coach Bill Belichick. Those two are Don Shula and George Halas. Belichick hit a significant milestone yesterday by recording his 300th regular season win against the Bills in Foxborough, MA. He stands only 18 wins behind Halas and 28 behind Shula. If you had asked me before yesterday's game if current Patriots quarterback Mac Jones would be the one to deliver the 19 and/or 29 wins Belichick needed to move up in the pecking order of coaching wins, I would have said no. But after his performance yesterday, leading his team from behind on a game-winning drive to deliver the winning touchdown pass with seconds remaining - although it came against an injury-depleted Bills defence - I will now say that he just might be. Yesterday's game may be the break-out moment Jones and the Patriots' fan base needed to bolster his confidence and begin to regain the team's winning tradition. The NFL is a humbling league where you're only as good as your last game. Just ask Bills quarterback Josh Allen.  

For the first time since probably the 2019 season, the Bills now do not look like a team in serious contention for - or at least with a legitimate shot at - a Superbowl championship. There is obviously a long way to go and with the team now at 4-3, all is not lost but the trend is not encouraging. Josh Allen's "nothing to see here" answers about his throwing shoulder this past week may not have been entirely accurate as his throws certainly looked off at times yesterday - starting with his very first throw for an interception which set up the Patriots first touchdown and staked them to a 10-0 lead. His offensive line struggled in pass protection much of the day and that didn't help but Allen and the offence have seemed out of sorts over the past three weeks. They need to regain the swagger they had in the Miami game which now seems like it was from another season although it was only three weeks ago. With so many injuries on the defence, the generally healthy offence is supposed to pick it up. Instead, they are regressing. 

In the AFC, the Chiefs once again have the inside track on coveted number one seed after disposing of the Chargers yesterday. The Eagles who, along with the 49ers who play tonight in Minnesota, are the class of the NFC this morning. The Eagles did the Bills a huge favour last night by beating the Dolphins who fell to 5-2, only one game ahead of the Bills who hold the tie-breaker against them. The Dolphins five wins have come against teams with a combined record of 8-25 and they have lost both games against teams with winning records (the Bills and Eagles). Still on the schedule for the Bills this season are the Chiefs, Eagles and the Dolphins in Miami. So, the opportunities for the Bills to regain their championship form will certainly present themselves but look for them to drop out of the top ten in this week's power rankings - and for good reason. 

Continuing with last week's thread on the college football schedule, Michigan faced its cross-state rivals Michigan State on Saturday with the Paul Bunyan Trophy at stake. This was the 116th meeting between the two schools which first faced each other in 1898 and have played every season since 1945. This year's game was in East Lansing and the Wolverines found themselves in unfamiliar territory, favoured by only 24 points. The game looked more like a football practice as the Wolverines won 49-0. I guess Jim Harbaugh has been much better at recruiting the best players in the state (and beyond) than have the Spartans. The  Wolverines won't be shellac-ing anyone this week as they have a bye before returning home to Ann Arbor on November 4th against the Purdue Boilermakers. The spread in that game should be at least 30 points as the uncompetitive college football schedule rolls on. 

Next up for the Bills is a home game three days from now - Thursday Night Football - against the Tampa Bay Bucanneers. If I could pick one of 31 NFL teams with which the Bills have the most "opposite of a rivalry", it  would be the Bucs. This is the 13th meeting all-time between the teams and only the third time the Bucs have ever travelled to Orchard Park. The Bucs lead the all-time series 8-4 but the Bills have won both games in Buffalo - in 2009 and in 2017. The Bills are 7.5 point favourites. I'm too old to be driving home (safely) at 2.30am and based on what's available on the secondary market, ticket demand for this game is weak. If anyone wants to go and see NFL football from the best seats in the house, let me know.      

Bills 14, Giants 9

Throughout Tyrod Taylor's three seasons as Bills starting quarterback, he earned the reputation as a very competent game manager: he is a good athlete who can scramble to sustain drives, his ball security is almost always impeccable and he can make some of the throws which an NFL quarterback needs to make. But at particularly crucial times, his arm strength and accuracy would often fail him. I have oodles of respect for Taylor as the man who was under centre when the Bills 17 year playoff drought ended in Sean McDermott's first season six years ago. Last night in Orchard Park, Taylor made just enough plays to give his team a good chance to win but on the final play of a long and frustrating game, he was unable to deliver the pass to tight end Darren Waller. He has parlayed his talent and consistency into an impressive NFL career (mostly as a back-up) but has not been able to make key plays at critical times. Last night, in addition to coming up short at the end of the game, his audible on what turned out to be the final play of the first half cost his team a chance at crucial points which probably would have changed the trajectory of the game. Giants coach Brian Daboll, a hot-head at the best of times, was in full melt-down as the teams went to their locker rooms with the Giants leading 6-0. 

The Giants, now 1-5, played as if their season was on the line - which it was. Wink Martindale, the 89 year-old former disc jockey and game show host turned defensive coordinator (how can two somewhat famous people with the same last name end up with the same nickname?) dialed up a solid defensive game plan which kept the Bills scoreless through three quarters. But he got little support from Taylor and the offence which could not find the endzone all night. The Giants effort and grit was impressive in a losing cause. It was clear that Daboll and Taylor really wanted this one - not only to try to salvage their season but on account of their respective histories in Buffalo. It must have been a bitter way to lose.

For the Bills part, they looked out of sync on offence for most of the game before finally finding the endzone twice in the fourth quarter. Josh Allen took some big hits including one where his helmet hit the turf, earning him banishment to the blue tent for two plays. He also wrenched his throwing shoulder although he finished the game and post-game X-rays were negative. We will hear more about this shoulder in the next couple of days. The Bills tight-end depth helped as little-used Quinton Morris, targeted for the first time all season, caught what turned out to be the game-winning score on a classic Josh Allen high risk thread-the-needle throw on a scramble with less than four minutes remaining. 

A word on college football: Having attended a game at the Big House in Ann Arbor 20 years ago, I am a casual to sometimes serious fan of the Michigan Wolverines. Through seven weeks of the season, Jim Harbaugh's team has maintained its number two national ranking in the AP poll. How the poll voters can really know how good the Wolverines really are is beyond me as they have won all of their games by a combined score of 276 to 47. They have been double digit favourites in every game including this past Saturday where the spread was posted at 33 against the Indiana Hoosiers who as far as I know are quite good at basketball. Michigan won 52-7. In short, the college football schedule is a mystery to me with so many lop-sided games, especially in the first few weeks of the season. The Wolverines have feasted on the likes of East Carolina, Bowling Green and UNLV - with all of these game played at the Big House before crowds of more than 108,000. I don't know who benefits from these mis-matches. Certainly not the Michigan fans unless they value being able to leave before halftime to beat the traffic. Aside from the season finale against Ohio State, the Wolverines will not face any legitimate competition at all this season with the exception of a trip to State College PA to pay the Nittany Lions on November 11th. I guess there just aren't enough quality teams for the NCAA to present a competitive schedule in September and October as the top 10 programs in the country sign all of the top national recruits every year. Maybe the time has come for a high school draft. College football remains popular with television ratings up this year but I can only imagine how much more compelling the games would be with more competitive balance throughout the season.

Up next for the Bills is a trip to Foxborough to play the sad-sack Patriots who sit at 1-5 as their fans question whether Bill Belichick is still a good coach and if Mac Jones is a legitimate franchise quarterback. Gillette Stadium was death valley for the Bills (and most other teams) for so many years, it's still hard for Bills fans to feel comfortable about it but maybe with the ill-fated trip to London and last night's nail-biter in the rear view mirror, the time has come for the team to regain their form as a Superbowl contender.  

   

Jaguars 25, Bills 20

The Jaguars and the Bills stand first and second in the NFL in terms of the most regular season games played outside the United States. The Jaguars have unwittingly become London's team after agreeing some years ago to play at least one game per season at Wembley Stadium for an extended period. Team owner Shahid Khan jumped at the "opportunity" when his team was a perennial league doormat and was suffering attendance problems in north Florida. Rather than have vast sections of empty seats in the upper deck (which look awful on television - like most CFL games do these days), the Jaguars made large tarps (with team branding) to entirely cover sections in the upper corners of EverBank Stadium in an effort to make the stadium look "full". Losing one home game annually to an overseas location seemed better than struggling to sell tickets at home. Now that his team is respectable at worst and a legitimate contender at best, Khan may be regretting his commitment but yesterday's win over the bad luck Buffalo Bills marks the team's second consecutive win in the UK this season. Their first win came last week against the Falcons at Wembley.

The Bills hold second position in games played outside the US because former team owner Ralph Wilson decided in 2008 to play one home game each season in Toronto for a period of five years. The Bills ended up seeing that five year commitment through and adding one more game in 2013. Rogers communications made Wilson an offer so good for the first five years (which also included one pre-season game each season)  that he couldn't - or at least didn't - turn it down. The "Toronto Series" was a disaster by any standard of measurement as the team lost its considerable home field advantage as well as all but one of the games. With losses to the Dolphins, Jets, Bears, Seahawks and Falcons in regular season play at the Rogers Centre, fans in Buffalo were furious while fans in Toronto seemed indifferent at best. The Bills only win in Toronto came in 2011 against Washington and Bills fans may remember that the team signed quarterback Ryan "Fitzmagic" Fitzpatrick to a lucrative contract extension following that game. He went on afterward to earn the nickname "Fitztragic" for good reason. The Toronto series left the Bills with a record of one win and five losses in what were supposed to be "home" games. Toronto fans' proved that, while there are plenty of NFL fans in the area, not all - certainly not enough - are Bills fans.

In 2015, the Bills headed to London to play the Jaguars at Wembley Stadium in the team's first game outside the US since the Toronto debacle. Quarterback EJ Manuel put on an interception clinic in a 34-31 loss - a score which flattered the Bills who scored a couple of late touchdown to make the score look close. Entering yesterday's game, the Bills took their 1-6 international record to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in north London and added another failure to the loss column. I saw almost none of the game as we were engaged in the moving of a building at the cottage - a project which was extremely difficult, fraught with problems, took two entire days but was ultimately successful (except for some minor damage to the roof). I did pop inside just as Matt Milano was being helped off the field in what looked like great discomfort. He is probably lost for the season with a leg break or a knee injury (or both), according to reports I read last night. His leg was "rolled up on" in what is a very common way to be seriously injured in football. After avoiding the injury bug for the first five years of the Sean McDermott era, reversion to mean is happening in real time this year to the Bills who have lost a star defensive player in each of the last two games - Tre White last week and now Milano who is one of the best linebackers in the NFL and one who played every down. Recovery from these injuries is certainly possible but it will take an offensive explosion every week to overcome them. If Josh Allen can lead the team to 40 points every week, they may have a chance but based on yesterday's mostly anemic performance by the offence, my confidence level is not high at the moment.

But, the Bills next three opponents - the Giants, Patriots and Buccaneers - may be just what the doctor ordered to get their offence back on track. Maria Taylor and the Sunday Night Football crew come to Orchard Park next week as the Giants visit the Bills. After a sizzling first half of the season and a road playoff win for then rookie head coach (and former Bills offensive coordinator) Brian Daboll in 2022, the Giants have been a disappointment so far this season, getting blown out yesterday in Miami. For the Bills, at least there are no more games on foreign soil on the schedule.

Bills 48, Dolphins 20

The Miami Dolphins joined the AFL in 1966 and since then the Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills have played each other twice each regular season. The two teams have also squared off in five playoff games. Yesterday's meeting was the 120th in the history of the series which has seen periods of domination by one team or the other as well as periods of parity and very intense competition. That's a lot of football games between two teams but is well behind the Bears v. Packers who have met more than 200 times. The Dolphins lead the regular season series 61 to 53 with one tie. The Bills have won four of the five playoff match-ups including the AFC Championship Game in Miami in January of 1993 and a first round playoff game in Orchard Park in January of this year. 

Due mostly to recency bias, many Bills fans probably consider the rivalry with the New England Patriots to be the fiercest one they know but historically, the Bills v. Dolphins rivalry has a much deeper meaning, particularly for those who remember the 1970s. Led by coach Don Shula and quarterback Bob Griese, the Dolphins dominated the Bills throughout the entire decade of the 70s, winning each and every one of the 20 games played between 1970 and 1979. The frustration of Bills fans through this period was not relieved until 1980 when Bills quarterback Joe Ferguson broke the streak with a home win which sent fans streaming onto the field like we often see in a major college upset. I think I have seen the Bills play the Dolphins five times with the biggest game by far taking place on December 23, 1990. With Jim Kelly injured, Frank Reich led the Bills to a critical home win which secured the AFC East division title and home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs as they earned their first trip to the Superbowl. One of the most iconic images in Bills history is a photo taken during this game where Bruce Smith has his arms wrapped around Dan Marino as he brings him to the concrete-like astroturf. "Squish the Fish" is the Bills fans rallying cry for this rivalry. It was never more appropriate than it was yesterday in Orchard Park.

The Dolphins offence seemed unstoppable after the first three weeks of the season, especially after they hung 70 points on the Broncos last week. The game began as predicted with the two teams trading touchdowns on each of their first two drives. The Bills scored again on their third drive and then began stiffening their defence before pulling away. The 31 points the Bills racked up in the first half was the most in a half in 30 years. The Bills skilled players on offence shined throughout the game and the defence played well enough to slow the Dolphins down as much as was needed. 

The postgame celebration for Bills fans however had a bittersweet aftertaste. Tre'Davious White, the standout cornerback now in his seventh season is probably lost for the season (to be confirmed today by MRI) with an Achilles tear. When the Bills face the New York Jets in November, perhaps White and Aaron Rodgers can sit together and compare notes on season-ending Achilles injuries. For White, this will be the second season-ending injury in the last three years. The most infuriating part for him I would think is that both of these injuries were "non-contact" - as in caused either by the turf or just an awkward body movement. On Thanksgiving Day in 2021, White tore ligaments in his left knee just by catching his shoe on the turf which flexed his knee sideways. He did return a year later but was not 100% until the beginning of this season. Now an Achilles tear will keep him out presumably until 2024. For a sport known for its violent hits, head injuries and 300 pound linemen falling on other players legs, a player like White who has now had two major non-contact injuries must feel like the most unlucky football player ever. 

In response to player injuries, coaches like the phrase "next man up" as injuries present opportunities for whoever is the next man up. For the Bills, that man surely is Kaiir Elam. Last year's 23rd overall pick has been inconsistent at best (he was a healthy scratch in week one) and lost the second cornerback competition to Christian Benford who was drafted five rounds later. This is obviously the best opportunity Elam will have to show why the Bills made him their first round pick in 2022. Let's hope he rises to it.

Sean McDermott was quite emotional after the game when describing White's injury. He also said that in all his years in the NFL, he has never heard crown noise at any time in any stadium like he did yesterday. He said it was like a jet engine. Watching on television, it seemed loud as it always does but I didn't get the feeling that it was above and beyond the usual. It would have been a great game to see live as long as you brought plenty of sunscreen. 

Next up for the Bills is an overseas trip to face the Jaguars in London. Kick-off is set for 9.30am Eastern on Sunday. I hope to have my turkey stuffed and ready to go into the oven before game time. I'd like to extend a personal thank you to TcketMaster UK for shutting me out of their site and denying me tickets to the game despite the "special season ticket holder preferred access pre-sale" link I received. I'd say that one of the most challenging jobs I can think of would be Communications or Public Relations Director for this highly unethical company. I won't be applying.