Reports of declining NFL television ratings were easy to dismiss or explain away during the first couple of weeks of the season but, now at the halfway mark, the lower numbers are both consistent and significant. Many theories abound as to why.
Here are the facts: Overall, NFL television viewership in 2016 is down 12% from a year ago. Prime time games are suffering much more than Sunday afternoon broadcasts with Thursday night viewership down 18%, Sunday night games down 19% and Monday Night Football off a quite remarkable 24%.
A poll was conducted recently for Seaton Hall University which asked respondents why they were watching less NFL on television. Here are some of the reasons respondents provided and some other theories which have been proposed to explain the sudden and relatively steep drop in the number of Americans watching NFL games on television:
1. The Presidential election: It is common for sports television viewership to decline modestly in election years. This year, (and the Trump campaign complained about this when the debate schedule was released) two of the three debates between the two main candidates took place at the same time as NFL prime time broadcasts and this year's debates attracted the highest viewership since 1980.
2. Head Injuries: Maybe the long list of stories about the shattered lives of some former NFL players who suffered repeated head trauma during their playing days has finally driven some viewers away from the sport.
3. Domestic Violence: The NFL's response over the past few years to incidents of domestic abuse on the part of players has generally been slow and muted and has added to the list of bad news stories about the league.
4. Over-saturation: With the move to a full schedule of Thursday night games a few years ago, the NFL decided that it had to own not one, not two but three prime time television nights each week. I can remember when Monday Night football was the only prime time football game every week and there was something special about it. Not to mention that this season's prime time game slate has featured neither compelling story lines nor particularly competitive games.
5. Cord cutters watching in sports bars: the cable industry can rhyme off the statistics (but they don't want to) of its declining traditional customer base but maybe some of us who have ditched cable in favour of a combination of OTA and Netflix are still watching football at our friends places, in sports bars or elsewhere. It's nearly impossible to measure this.
6. National anthem protests: This is perhaps the most interesting one and a bit of mystery too as the national anthem is generally not part of the broadcast of an NFL game (except for the Superbowl). If the fact that some players are not standing during the anthem (or making other gestures to support the protest idea started by 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick) has caused some viewers to tune out, then either those viewers were never very serious fans or they need to grow thicker skins.
The fact remains that, even with significantly lower ratings, nothing can touch the NFL in terms of delivering eyeballs to television advertisers. Take a massively large number and reduce it by 12% and you've still got a very big number. The real question is whether the current decline in viewership is the new normal or if it will rebound as the season progresses and in future years.
I actually watched very little of the Bills game yesterday. CTV decided that what I really wanted to watch at 1pm was the entire scoreless overtime period of the London game between Washington and the Bengals which caused me to miss most of the first quarter. Then, as the Patriots seemed to be toying with the Bills, I lost interest and spent more time cutting firewood than I did watching the debacle.
Brady threw for 315 yards and 4 touchdowns - a typical game in Buffalo for him. With the Bills depleted offensive line-up, the game was going to come down to whether the defence could stop Brady. They couldn't. They never have been able to and there was no reason to think that it would start yesterday. At 7-1, the Patriots are the clear favourites to win it all again this year. Brady and Belichick will move on some day but it seems clear that the Bills will not realize any meaningful success until they do.
Up next: Monday Night Football at Seattle the night before the election. As a cord-cutter, I will have to find a place to watch it as ESPN is not an OTA broadcaster where I live.
Monday, 31 October 2016
Monday, 24 October 2016
Dolphins 28, Bils 25
Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi joined some elite company yesterday in South Florida as he gained over 200 yards on the ground for the second consecutive game. Only three other players in NFL history have ever accomplished this: OJ Simpson who did it twice for the Bills in the 1970s, Houston Oilers great Earl Campbell in 1980 and the Dophins Ricky Williams in 2003. Ajayi, who was born to Nigerian parents in London, England and moved to the US at age 7, played his college football at Boise State and was the 149th overall pick by the Dolphins in the 2015 draft. He was left off the roster for the Dolphins first game of this season at Seattle for disciplinary reasons (in hockey, it's called being a "healthy scratch") but has obviously become a critical part of the offense, taking some pressure off the persistently mediocre quarterback Ryan Tanehill and saving, for now, prospects for the Dolphins season after a 1-4 start.
Now the Bills know what it feels like to have a team run at will against them. When a defence knows that the run is coming but still can't stop it, two things happen: it slowly but surely breaks the spirit of the defence and then it opens up opportunities in the passing game. That's what happened yesterday to the Bills after doing much the same to their opponents over the course of their four game winning streak. They made the score look close with a late touchdown and two point conversion before trying an unsuccessful onside kick with 13 seconds left.
The Patriots keep on rolling, with a win in Pittsburgh yesterday to move to 6-1, with their only loss coming at the hands of the Bills. They make their annual trip to Orchard Park next week. With a win yesterday, the Bills would have pushed their record to 5-2 with this week's game representing a chance to move into first place in the AFC East, tied with the Patriots but holding the tie-breaker having beaten them twice. But, at 4-3, even with a win on Sunday, which seems unlikely, a home playoff game remains a pipe dream in Buffalo as these go only to division winners. The Patriots are early 5 to 7 point favourites on most lines and I look for that line to creep up as the week goes on and the state of some key Bills injuries come into focus.
I have a prediction for what we might see on the evening of November 8th between 10 and 11pm. Hillary Clinton will have won a landslide victory in the Presidential election, at least in terms of the Electoral College results, winning by 9 points over Donald Trump in the national popular vote. The protocol would then require that he address his supporters and the nation before Clinton delivers her victory speech. Protocol would also require that one of the first things that he says in his concession speech would be to very briefly recount a phone call which he had a few minutes earlier.
I think that he will do that but when it comes time to say who he had just spoken with on the phone, there will be a twist. Here's what I think he will say: "I just got off the phone with.......... Ann Coulter" - insert applause here - "and she told me to keep fighting this election and not concede until we have exhausted all possible fraud investigations, court challenges and vote recounts." Then, he will offer some misogynous commentary on her physical appearance (still pretty good but past her best days etc). And, with that, he will not concede - at least not on election night.
Coulter's recent book, "In Trump We Trust" sets out all of the great planks in his policy platform and, on her website, she explains that the only policy detail that he has not provided in the campaign is "which company will supply rebar for the wall".
Ok, back to the Bills. With the Patriots coming up next, followed by a trip to Seattle for a night-before-the-election appearance on Monday Night Football on November 7th, a wildcard playoff spot will look even more difficult to achieve at 4-5 as they enter their bye week.
Now the Bills know what it feels like to have a team run at will against them. When a defence knows that the run is coming but still can't stop it, two things happen: it slowly but surely breaks the spirit of the defence and then it opens up opportunities in the passing game. That's what happened yesterday to the Bills after doing much the same to their opponents over the course of their four game winning streak. They made the score look close with a late touchdown and two point conversion before trying an unsuccessful onside kick with 13 seconds left.
The Patriots keep on rolling, with a win in Pittsburgh yesterday to move to 6-1, with their only loss coming at the hands of the Bills. They make their annual trip to Orchard Park next week. With a win yesterday, the Bills would have pushed their record to 5-2 with this week's game representing a chance to move into first place in the AFC East, tied with the Patriots but holding the tie-breaker having beaten them twice. But, at 4-3, even with a win on Sunday, which seems unlikely, a home playoff game remains a pipe dream in Buffalo as these go only to division winners. The Patriots are early 5 to 7 point favourites on most lines and I look for that line to creep up as the week goes on and the state of some key Bills injuries come into focus.
I have a prediction for what we might see on the evening of November 8th between 10 and 11pm. Hillary Clinton will have won a landslide victory in the Presidential election, at least in terms of the Electoral College results, winning by 9 points over Donald Trump in the national popular vote. The protocol would then require that he address his supporters and the nation before Clinton delivers her victory speech. Protocol would also require that one of the first things that he says in his concession speech would be to very briefly recount a phone call which he had a few minutes earlier.
I think that he will do that but when it comes time to say who he had just spoken with on the phone, there will be a twist. Here's what I think he will say: "I just got off the phone with.......... Ann Coulter" - insert applause here - "and she told me to keep fighting this election and not concede until we have exhausted all possible fraud investigations, court challenges and vote recounts." Then, he will offer some misogynous commentary on her physical appearance (still pretty good but past her best days etc). And, with that, he will not concede - at least not on election night.
Coulter's recent book, "In Trump We Trust" sets out all of the great planks in his policy platform and, on her website, she explains that the only policy detail that he has not provided in the campaign is "which company will supply rebar for the wall".
Ok, back to the Bills. With the Patriots coming up next, followed by a trip to Seattle for a night-before-the-election appearance on Monday Night Football on November 7th, a wildcard playoff spot will look even more difficult to achieve at 4-5 as they enter their bye week.
Monday, 17 October 2016
Bills 45, 49ers 16
Colin Kaepernick sports a large afro hairstyle and when he jogged out of the tunnel from the locker room to take the field yesterday in Orchard Park, without his helmet on, it seemed like he wanted everyone in the stadium to notice him. There was some booing and a few jeers of "traitor" with one fan near us who favoured the term "eat shit Kaepernick" which he repeated throughout the game. Just as the anthem was about to start, a cheer of "USA, USA" gained momentum but was quickly drowned out by the Star Spangled Banner singer. Kaepernick and two teammates kneeled during the anthem and several more 49ers players stood with their right fists raised and clenched in the style of the Black Panther movement which the world came to know during the 1968 Mexico City Olympics. All Bills players stood in a line on their sideline during the anthem.
Kaepernick's form of protest has prompted a backlash among some football fans and others. After the game yesterday, he explained his position this way: "I don't understand what's un-American about fighting for liberty and justice for everybody, for the equality that this country stands for. I see it as very patriotic and American." I have read reports this morning of t-shirts for sale outside New Era Field yesterday with Kaepernick's image in the cross-hairs of a gun scope and beer coolers with an image of Kaepernick and the words "stand up and shut up". I didn't see any of that myself. Inside the stadium and after the game began, what I saw was a quarterback in his first start of the season who showed only a fraction of the kind of player he was in 2012 when he led his team to the Superbowl.
The Bills ran for 312 yards yesterday (their best running performance since 1992) and, as was reported on Twitter by Football Perspective, they have racked up 847 yards over the past four weeks, marking the highest total for any team in weeks 3 through 6 in the NFL since 1981 and the 5th most since 1970. Most football coaches will say that, if given the choice, they would almost always choose to run the ball; it's more conservative, less likely to lead to turnovers, more likely to keep the game clock running and, when successful, is quite demoralizing for the opposing defense. Marv Levy always said that to win in the NFL, a team need only do two things: run the ball and stop the run. The Bills obviously accomplished the running part yesterday and, while allowing Kaepernick to rush for team leading 66 yards on the day, the defense held the 49ers running backs to only 67 yards on the ground.
49ers coach Chip Kelly favours a "hurry-up" type of offense with either no huddles between plays or very brief huddles. The strategy is meant to tire out the defense and limit its ability to substitute in changing down and distance situations. The Bills defense seemed well prepared for this and, until the game was well in hand, their offense frequently used the same strategy yesterday. And they were able to run the ball at will with strong offensive line play and the the brilliance of LeSean McCoy. It was a dominating performance which allowed us to leave the stadium early and beat the traffic. I was home just after 6.30pm.
Thankfully, the third and final Presidential debate takes place on Wednesday at UNLV. Fox News Chris Wallace will be the moderator. At least Alec Baldwin will be able to get one more guest spot on SNL from it and possibly more, depending on how the final three weeks of the campaign play out. But, if Trump goes away after his expected landslide defeat, Baldwin's run will end after November 8th. Don't bet on it though. Baldwin should keep his Saturday night calendar clear for some time to come as I don't think Trump will accept defeat graciously - if at all.
Kaepernick's form of protest has prompted a backlash among some football fans and others. After the game yesterday, he explained his position this way: "I don't understand what's un-American about fighting for liberty and justice for everybody, for the equality that this country stands for. I see it as very patriotic and American." I have read reports this morning of t-shirts for sale outside New Era Field yesterday with Kaepernick's image in the cross-hairs of a gun scope and beer coolers with an image of Kaepernick and the words "stand up and shut up". I didn't see any of that myself. Inside the stadium and after the game began, what I saw was a quarterback in his first start of the season who showed only a fraction of the kind of player he was in 2012 when he led his team to the Superbowl.
The Bills ran for 312 yards yesterday (their best running performance since 1992) and, as was reported on Twitter by Football Perspective, they have racked up 847 yards over the past four weeks, marking the highest total for any team in weeks 3 through 6 in the NFL since 1981 and the 5th most since 1970. Most football coaches will say that, if given the choice, they would almost always choose to run the ball; it's more conservative, less likely to lead to turnovers, more likely to keep the game clock running and, when successful, is quite demoralizing for the opposing defense. Marv Levy always said that to win in the NFL, a team need only do two things: run the ball and stop the run. The Bills obviously accomplished the running part yesterday and, while allowing Kaepernick to rush for team leading 66 yards on the day, the defense held the 49ers running backs to only 67 yards on the ground.
49ers coach Chip Kelly favours a "hurry-up" type of offense with either no huddles between plays or very brief huddles. The strategy is meant to tire out the defense and limit its ability to substitute in changing down and distance situations. The Bills defense seemed well prepared for this and, until the game was well in hand, their offense frequently used the same strategy yesterday. And they were able to run the ball at will with strong offensive line play and the the brilliance of LeSean McCoy. It was a dominating performance which allowed us to leave the stadium early and beat the traffic. I was home just after 6.30pm.
Thankfully, the third and final Presidential debate takes place on Wednesday at UNLV. Fox News Chris Wallace will be the moderator. At least Alec Baldwin will be able to get one more guest spot on SNL from it and possibly more, depending on how the final three weeks of the campaign play out. But, if Trump goes away after his expected landslide defeat, Baldwin's run will end after November 8th. Don't bet on it though. Baldwin should keep his Saturday night calendar clear for some time to come as I don't think Trump will accept defeat graciously - if at all.
Monday, 10 October 2016
Bills 30, Rams 19
Rams fans are questioning Jeff Fisher's decision to go with a fake punt attempt on a 4th and 5 deep in his own territory with less than 4 minutes to go and trailing by 4 points. The Bills were ready for it, stopped it and went on to score the game clinching touchdown. As the Rams lined up to punt, I was thinking this possibility: with only 5 yards needed for a first down, the chances seemed good that Fisher might try it. If I were a Rams fan, I hope that I would have the perspective to appreciate that it was a reasonable call (although obviously a high risk one) in a game where the Rams needed a touchdown or they would lose the game. The trouble with such a call in such a critical situation is that if it doesn't work, the game is over. And it was.
When the Bills traded linebacker Kiko Alonso to the Eagles before last season for running back LeSean McCoy, detractors said that the NFL had become a passing league and that serviceable running backs could be found in the later rounds of the draft and there was no need to trade valuable assets for a featured back. Under former offensive coordinator Greg Roman, through a full season and two more games this year, McCoy's production was decent at times but probably less than what Bills fans had hoped for when he was acquired. In the three games since Anthony Lynn became offensive coordinator, McCoy has been fantastic and yesterday was, in my opinion, his best game in a Bills uniform, gaining 150 yards on the ground.
Tyrod Taylor's play at quarterback over the course of the Bills current three game winning streak has been less than eye-popping in terms of the usual statistical accumulation expected from franchise quarterbacks. The key statistic for me, on the other hand - and one which sometimes isn't tracked as closely as it should be - is turnovers. In Taylor's case, the dominating statistic is his lack of them. The quarterback, more than any player on the field, has the potential to cause turnovers through the usual course of ball handling, receiving snaps from centre in the shotgun formation, interceptions and sacks/blind side hits which lead to fumbles. How may times did we see JP Losman or even Drew Bledsoe, at critical points in games, hold on to the ball for too long, get sacked and fumble away a game? How many times have we seen Tyrod Taylor do the same? I can't think of any. This man protects the ball and avoids disastrous plays. Sure, he doesn't throw for 300 yards on a weekly basis and sometimes lacks the right touch on certain passes but I will take his modest statistical production combined with his commitment to ball protection - any time. Combining a very strong running game with a competent quarterback who protects the ball is a winning formula and the Bills have proven this over the past three weeks.
Now at 3-2, the Bills have what looks to be an easy out coming up with the San Francicso 49ers coming to Orchard Park next Sunday. I will be watching the 49er bench during the national anthem as coach Chip Kelly will likely start Colin Kaepernick at quarterback. The 49ers are rated at or near the bottom of the league in most analysts power rankings so I look for the Bills to possibly be double digit favourites for the first time in a very long time. Their well documented struggles over the past 16 years have not presented the Bills with many games where they could potentially overlook a weak opponent and I hope they don't start this week. A trip to south Florida to play the reeling Dolphins is on for the following week before a home re-match with the Patriots on October 30th where the AFC East lead could be on the line.
I made sure to put new batteries in my TV remote yesterday morning with the early slate of NFL games, the Bills late kick-off in Los Angeles and then the Blue Jays clinching their series with Texas to earn their second consecutive trip to the ALCS. But at 9pm, my TV was locked on to the second presidential debate which I watched almost in its entirety while checking on the baseball game.
Like many who follow politics, I think I have officially run out of things to say about the campaign. I will offer only this comment: The sheer volume of outrageous statements made by Trump over the past year or so has served to anesthetize us from feeling the contempt and outrage we should over the things has said recently - and one thing in particular from last night. I'm talking about his threat to "direct" his Attorney General (if elected President) to appoint a special prosecutor to go after Hillary Clinton. That's right: a public commitment to prosecute his political opponent.
David Frum said it best on Twitter yesterday: if you left Trump alone in a room with a bottle of whiskey and a revolver and advised him to just do the right thing, when you went back to the room, he would shoot you in the face.
When the Bills traded linebacker Kiko Alonso to the Eagles before last season for running back LeSean McCoy, detractors said that the NFL had become a passing league and that serviceable running backs could be found in the later rounds of the draft and there was no need to trade valuable assets for a featured back. Under former offensive coordinator Greg Roman, through a full season and two more games this year, McCoy's production was decent at times but probably less than what Bills fans had hoped for when he was acquired. In the three games since Anthony Lynn became offensive coordinator, McCoy has been fantastic and yesterday was, in my opinion, his best game in a Bills uniform, gaining 150 yards on the ground.
Tyrod Taylor's play at quarterback over the course of the Bills current three game winning streak has been less than eye-popping in terms of the usual statistical accumulation expected from franchise quarterbacks. The key statistic for me, on the other hand - and one which sometimes isn't tracked as closely as it should be - is turnovers. In Taylor's case, the dominating statistic is his lack of them. The quarterback, more than any player on the field, has the potential to cause turnovers through the usual course of ball handling, receiving snaps from centre in the shotgun formation, interceptions and sacks/blind side hits which lead to fumbles. How may times did we see JP Losman or even Drew Bledsoe, at critical points in games, hold on to the ball for too long, get sacked and fumble away a game? How many times have we seen Tyrod Taylor do the same? I can't think of any. This man protects the ball and avoids disastrous plays. Sure, he doesn't throw for 300 yards on a weekly basis and sometimes lacks the right touch on certain passes but I will take his modest statistical production combined with his commitment to ball protection - any time. Combining a very strong running game with a competent quarterback who protects the ball is a winning formula and the Bills have proven this over the past three weeks.
Now at 3-2, the Bills have what looks to be an easy out coming up with the San Francicso 49ers coming to Orchard Park next Sunday. I will be watching the 49er bench during the national anthem as coach Chip Kelly will likely start Colin Kaepernick at quarterback. The 49ers are rated at or near the bottom of the league in most analysts power rankings so I look for the Bills to possibly be double digit favourites for the first time in a very long time. Their well documented struggles over the past 16 years have not presented the Bills with many games where they could potentially overlook a weak opponent and I hope they don't start this week. A trip to south Florida to play the reeling Dolphins is on for the following week before a home re-match with the Patriots on October 30th where the AFC East lead could be on the line.
I made sure to put new batteries in my TV remote yesterday morning with the early slate of NFL games, the Bills late kick-off in Los Angeles and then the Blue Jays clinching their series with Texas to earn their second consecutive trip to the ALCS. But at 9pm, my TV was locked on to the second presidential debate which I watched almost in its entirety while checking on the baseball game.
Like many who follow politics, I think I have officially run out of things to say about the campaign. I will offer only this comment: The sheer volume of outrageous statements made by Trump over the past year or so has served to anesthetize us from feeling the contempt and outrage we should over the things has said recently - and one thing in particular from last night. I'm talking about his threat to "direct" his Attorney General (if elected President) to appoint a special prosecutor to go after Hillary Clinton. That's right: a public commitment to prosecute his political opponent.
David Frum said it best on Twitter yesterday: if you left Trump alone in a room with a bottle of whiskey and a revolver and advised him to just do the right thing, when you went back to the room, he would shoot you in the face.
Monday, 3 October 2016
Bills 16, Patriots 0
Rex Ryan repeated several times in his post-game press conference that yesterday's win was great but that the Patriots were "down a man", referring of course to Tom Brady who is set to return next week from his four game deflate-gate related suspension. They were down more that one man with second string quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo also inactive yesterday and star tight end Rob Gronkowski seeing limited duty and recording only one reception in the game. But still. A win in New England when it counts - unlike the last game of the 2014 season when the Bills won against a Patriots team which had clinched home field throughout the playoffs - is quite an achievement and something which two weeks ago seemed almost unthinkable.
The score was actually flattering to the Patriots who were thoroughly dominated throughout the game. With the exception of two deep passes which were each slightly overthrown and would have resulted in touchdowns, Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor looked like a franchise NFL quarterback yesterday. The offensive game plan and series to series play calling were excellent yesterday and have been much improved over the past two weeks - certainly compared to the first two weeks, After hitting what appeared to be rock-bottom following a prime time loss to the Jets then changing offensive coordinators, prospects for the Bills season were looking bleak after two weeks. But now at 2-2, they find themselves only a game back of the Patriots with a re-match coming up, with Tom Brady back in the line-up, on October 30th in Orchard Park. Suddenly, the division title, while still a steep hill to climb, is no longer a total fantasy. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. This week offers another stiff test: a trip to Los Angeles to face a Rams team which is playing well and is enjoying strong support from football fans in southern California.
I was watching Rudy Giuliani offer his thoughts on the Donald Trump tax issue which has dominated the US campaign this past week. He said that Trump was a "genius" for arranging his financial affairs so as to pay no taxes for as many as 20 years after claiming a loss of nearly $1 billion in the 1995 tax year. Trump himself, in Monday's debate, referred to himself as "smart" for not paying taxes. Many very smart Americans, with the help of their lawyers and accountants, pay no income taxes. They are rich and paying no taxes helps to keep them that way. Are they smart for paying no taxes? Maybe but I really doubt that Trump is being smart about this issue in the current political context. His base of support lies among disaffected, white, working class males, many of whom have lost their high-paying, low-skilled manufacturing jobs to Mexico or to China or elsewhere. But when they working, they had little opportunity to reduce, defer or evade paying their taxes which were usually deducted at source by their employers. Even if they had concerns about how much tax they were paying or how the government spent some of their hard-earned money, they understood the connection between the taxes they were paying and the operations of the military, border services and police - all things which Trump has advocated for building up.
Throughout the campaign, Donald Trump has broken all of the conventional rules which candidates generally follow. He had made outrageous (and often false) statements on various issues and has viciously attacked his opponents. Through it all, he has somehow continued to poll well, keep the race tight and he amazingly remains within reach of the presidency. There are five more weeks of campaigning and two more nationally televised debates with Hillary Clinton where Trump can try to re-frame the tax issue if he chooses to do so but his pattern has been to double and triple down on things he has said or on positions he has taken. The Democrats will likely continue to hammer the tax issue and if Trump holds to his claim that he's smart not to pay taxes, his base may finally soften enough to cost him the election.
The score was actually flattering to the Patriots who were thoroughly dominated throughout the game. With the exception of two deep passes which were each slightly overthrown and would have resulted in touchdowns, Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor looked like a franchise NFL quarterback yesterday. The offensive game plan and series to series play calling were excellent yesterday and have been much improved over the past two weeks - certainly compared to the first two weeks, After hitting what appeared to be rock-bottom following a prime time loss to the Jets then changing offensive coordinators, prospects for the Bills season were looking bleak after two weeks. But now at 2-2, they find themselves only a game back of the Patriots with a re-match coming up, with Tom Brady back in the line-up, on October 30th in Orchard Park. Suddenly, the division title, while still a steep hill to climb, is no longer a total fantasy. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. This week offers another stiff test: a trip to Los Angeles to face a Rams team which is playing well and is enjoying strong support from football fans in southern California.
I was watching Rudy Giuliani offer his thoughts on the Donald Trump tax issue which has dominated the US campaign this past week. He said that Trump was a "genius" for arranging his financial affairs so as to pay no taxes for as many as 20 years after claiming a loss of nearly $1 billion in the 1995 tax year. Trump himself, in Monday's debate, referred to himself as "smart" for not paying taxes. Many very smart Americans, with the help of their lawyers and accountants, pay no income taxes. They are rich and paying no taxes helps to keep them that way. Are they smart for paying no taxes? Maybe but I really doubt that Trump is being smart about this issue in the current political context. His base of support lies among disaffected, white, working class males, many of whom have lost their high-paying, low-skilled manufacturing jobs to Mexico or to China or elsewhere. But when they working, they had little opportunity to reduce, defer or evade paying their taxes which were usually deducted at source by their employers. Even if they had concerns about how much tax they were paying or how the government spent some of their hard-earned money, they understood the connection between the taxes they were paying and the operations of the military, border services and police - all things which Trump has advocated for building up.
Throughout the campaign, Donald Trump has broken all of the conventional rules which candidates generally follow. He had made outrageous (and often false) statements on various issues and has viciously attacked his opponents. Through it all, he has somehow continued to poll well, keep the race tight and he amazingly remains within reach of the presidency. There are five more weeks of campaigning and two more nationally televised debates with Hillary Clinton where Trump can try to re-frame the tax issue if he chooses to do so but his pattern has been to double and triple down on things he has said or on positions he has taken. The Democrats will likely continue to hammer the tax issue and if Trump holds to his claim that he's smart not to pay taxes, his base may finally soften enough to cost him the election.
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