Patriots 37, Bills 16

The Bills played the Patriots almost evenly for almost three quarters of football yesterday in Foxborough, MA. The memory which most Bills fans will take away from this game is the fact that they should have gone to the locker room at halftime leading 17-13, rather than tied at 13 as they were. This was thanks to another virtually incomprehensible replay reversal - this time of a brilliant Kelvin Benjamin touchdown catch in the endzone in the closing seconds of the first half. But, as SI's Peter King pointed out, the NFL has micro-managed the replay function to the point of absurdity. Bill Cowher also discussed the play in great detail in the CBS studio yesterday. Cowher explained that a close and strict reading of the rule in terms of what constitutes a catch and what doesn't comes down to the meaning of "control" when a receiver is catching the ball, getting both feet down in bounds and perhaps switching which hand the ball is in when going to the ground. Cowher believes that the Benjamin catch should have stood as a touchdown because of his own interpretation of what constitutes control of the ball, compared to how the replay officials are interpreting it. He thought that Benjamin had control and retained control of the ball from the time it hit his hands - including the moment when he acrobatically got both feet down in bounds and tumbled to the ground. Yes the ball was moving in Benjamin's hands but, in Cowher's view, he had full "control"of the ball throughout the process. I still don't think that the Bills would have won the game even if they did have a four point lead at halftime. Other than a defensive touchdown on a very rare pick 6 thrown by Tom Brady, the Bills offence struggled mightily in the red zone and managed only three field goals. Sean McDermott's decision to try to long field goal on a fourth and one while trailing by a touchdown was a poor one and spelled the end for the Bills who were then steamrolled for two more touchdowns.

But a playoff birth for the Bills remains possible and the scenarios are not as far-fetched as they sometimes are with teams needing several games to end in ties and a certain team needing to score nine touchdowns etc. For the Bills, it's really quite simple: they need to win in week 17 in Miami and they also need either a Baltimore loss or losses by both Tennessee and the Los Angeles Chargers. Easy, right? Well, the Ravens, who play at home against the Bengals, control their own destiny and are in with a win without any help from other teams. Not likely that the Cincinnati Bengals will deny the Ravens a playoff birth. The Titans play at home to Jacksonville and are also in a "win and in" scenario without help from others. This one is more interesting because the Jaguars do have a remote shot at the second seed if the Steelers lose at home to Cleveland. And Jacksonville is a better team that the Titans are so a Jaguar win in Nashville is entirely possible. The Chargers play at home to an Oakland team with nothing to play for other than the traditional spoiler role after a very disappointing season. The Chargers win the tie-breaker against the Bills, having won their head-to-head match-up but lose the tie-breaker to the Titans based on conference records. For New Year's Eve, Go Bills and Go Bengals and/or Go Jaguars and Go Raiders.

The overnight snow has stopped as I sit here in north Toronto very early Christmas morning. We will have a safe passage to St. Catharines this morning I think as the highways will be plowed by the time we leave. Merry Christmas to those who celebrate it and happy two days off in any event to those who don't. 

Bills 24, Dolphins 16

Jay Cutler has one of the strongest throwing arms in the NFL. Yesterday in Orchard Park in conditions which were orders of magnitude better for football than they were a week earlier, he threw for 274 yards - a total which was about 50 yards more than Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor tallied on the day. Both teams put up 21 first downs and the Dolphins held the ball for just over 32 minutes while the Bills had it for just over 27 minutes. Miami had 349 total yards to the Bills 328. It was obviously an evenly matched game. The difference? Cutler threw three interceptions and Taylor threw none. I have gone on about this for three years now and yesterday's game proves my point once again: Tyrod Taylor avoids costly turnovers. This almost always allows his team to stay in games with a chance to win down the stretch. It's really quite simple. Nathan Peterman may turn out to be a perfectly serviceable NFL quarterback someday but, in stark contrast to Taylor, his start in Los Angeles a few weeks ago (I'm ignoring last week's blizzard game in this analysis) was a perfect example of how interceptions lead to losses. Cutler played well at times yesterday and the Dolphins running game was working well too but the turnovers were the differentiating factor between two relatively evenly matched teams. 

Yesterday also saw LeSean McCoy become the 30th player in NFL history to record 10,000 career rushing yards. Now in his ninth season, he has been very consistent. In six seasons with the Eagles, he racked up 6,792 rushing yards and with almost three seasons under his belt in Buffalo, he has 3,219 yards on the ground. McCoy is a gifted runner who poses the greatest threat when he breaks through the line to the "second level" of defenders (linebackers and safeties) where he can make tacklers miss like few others ever have. He is a kind of feast or famine running back because when he doesn't make it through the line, he is often dropped for a loss. A McCoy run is usually either good for 12 yards or minus 2 yards. He has a long way to go before he catches all-time NFL rushing leader Emmit Smith with 18,355 yards. 

I was checking on the Partiots game and stoking the sauna fire late yesterday afternoon and I left the game in the Steelers hands when the sauna reached the requisite 110 degrees celsius. The score was 24-16 for Pittsburgh in the fourth quarter and the Partiots were lining up to punt as I checked on it for the last time. I thought the Steelers would likely hang on and clinch home field for the AFC playoffs in the process. And the Bills would be headed to Foxborough two games behind the Patriots with two games to go and a theoretical, although slim, chance at a division title. But New England got a key late interception (have I mentioned that these are critically important?) in their own endzone to secure the win - a scenario which reminded me of the end of Superbowl XLIX where the Patriots intercepted Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson at the end of the game to turn a likely loss into a win. So, the Patriots and Steelers are both 11-3 now with the Patriots holding the key head-to-head tie-breaker. 

Now at 8-6, the Bills and their rookie head coach Sean McDermott are assured of avoiding a losing season which is something that few pundits foresaw in their pre-season predictions. NBC showed the Bills as occupying the 6th and final seed in the AFC playoff race last night and I presume that they crunched all of the tie-breaker numbers before doing so. Their destiny, in terms of making the NFL playoffs for the first time since 1999 and ending the Drought, therefore lies within their own hands. A trip to New England at this late and critical time of the season would not be anyone's first choice unless the Patriots had already wrapped up the first seed. But they still need to do that and the Bills therefore face a monumental challenge in week 16. If they can somehow pull out a win, they will have earned the right to a playoff birth in my mind.     

Bills 13, Colts 7, OT

I had prepared myself to type "Colts 8, Bills 7" this morning after the Colts successful two-point convert yesterday in what appeared to be Orchard Park, NY. There definitely was an NFL game played somewhere in the lee of the westward winds off Lake Erie but at times, on TV, it was hard to tell what was really happening. After I took a long walk in the snow here in Muskoka then had a nap, the official threw the flag which, after a long discussion, was determined to be for offensive pass interference on the two-point convert. It was then taken off the score board and the Colts were assessed a 10 yards penalty. What followed was an interesting rule interpretation because the Colts elected to kick the single point convert rather than try for two again. The 10 yard penalty was then correctly enforced from the 15 yard line where single point kicked converts are snapped from. This made Adam Venetieri's knuckle ball kick, which started right then corrected in mid-air, the equivalent of a 42 yard field goal. The Colts could have chosen to go for two again from the 12 and half yard line - after the enforcement of the 10 yard penalty. I was a little surprised that they elected to kick under those conditions but the decision proved right. Venetieri later missed what would have been a game-winning field goal a few minutes later.

The last snow game I can recall that is even remotely comparable to yesterday's was a Bills 8-0 loss to the Cleveland Browns on December 16, 2007 on the south shore of Lake Erie. The conditions in that game, which Sports Illustrated ranked as the third-best snow game of all time, were similar but with considerably less snow on the field than there was yesterday in Orchard Park. The game featured countless turnovers (which yesterday's game amazingly did not with only one) and generally inept play on both sides before Cleveland finally scored a late touchdown and a two-point convert.

I have been to several games over the years where snow flurries and squalls came through the stadium in waves, sometimes covering the field but never accumulating to very much. I have to say that I was glad to be watching the game from the comfort of my cottage where the outside conditions matched those at the stadium as it also snowed heavily for the entire game. But one of my friends, who claimed the Colts tickets months ago, was the lucky one, along with his son and another father-son duo, who experienced the blizzard which began during the tailgate party and carried on well past the end of overtime. If they stayed to see LeSean McCoy score the winning touchdown, then he will have earned himself a pair of tickets to a game next year. But it has to be in mid-December just to keep things fair. As they were leaving, he sent me a photo of his bar-b-que beside his car which was covered in what looked like about 18 inches of snow. I hope the drive home wasn't too bad. During the game, CBS showed the radar image of the lake effect snow bands which were pointed directly at Orchard Park but they were so localized that places like Grand Island, only a few miles to the north, were entirely clear of the snow.

Nathan Peterman got the start yesterday as Tyrod Taylor was out with a knee injury. He mostly handed the ball off but was able to connect with Kelvin Benjamin twice on the Bills first scoring drive before he was injured in the third quarter trying to dive for extra yardage on a broken play. In came Joseph Webb III (who, ironically, is also the third string quarterback on the depth chart) to finish the game. He looked tall, mobile and threw a great deep ball to Deonte Thompson to set up the winning touchdown. I'm not sure how useful any evaluation of players is in a snow game but, to me, Webb is worth another look at some point. So is Peterman I guess.

The NFL tie-breaking procedures are complex but for now, the Bills are seeded 8th, behind the Ravens (who occupy the 6th seed which does qualify for a wild-card playoff birth) and the Chargers. All three teams are 7-6 with three games remaining. The Maimi Dolphins, who play tonight in New England, come to Orchard Park this Sunday for the Bills final home game of the season. The Drought will probably continue but there is still hope that they can squeak in to the playoffs although they will need help.

Partiots 23, Bills 3

Rob Gronkowski was born in Amherst, NY and grew up in Williamsville, NY, both Buffalo suburbs, and is considered by team-mates and others around the league to be a good and decent person. He attended the University of Arizona and was drafted in the second round of the 2010 NFL draft, 42nd overall, by the New England Patriots. At 6 feet, 6 inches, he is considered to be one of the most difficult tight ends to cover in the NFL. Gronkowski has become one of the most prolific pass receiving and touchdown scoring tight ends in league history. Against most defensive backs, his height, arm length and deceptive speed make him one of the most challenging coverage assignments possible. Bills rookie cornerback Tre'davious White stands 5 feet 11 inches tall but appears to be at least a foot shorter than Gronkowski. The cheap-shot hit in yesterday's game by Gronkowski against White, which sent White out of the game and into the "concussion protocol", will surely earn him a suspension of at least one game. After the game, he apologized for the hit, chalking it up to frustration about referees' calls over the past seven years. Because he is so difficult to cover, Gronkowski claims that he is regularly interfered with by those trying to cover him and that the penalty calls are often not made. On the other hand, he claims that he is often called for penalties, like offensive pass interference, which no other tight end in the league ever is. He is also known to post images in social media of himself and his various porn-star girlfriends. Like him or not, it is too bad that the Bills didn't draft him. Instead, ahead of him in the 2010 draft, they took running back CJ Spiller at No. 9 overall and nose tackle Torrel Troup just ahead of Gronknowski at No. 41 overall. Neither is on the Bills roster now.

The Bills played a decent first half yesterday and could have easily been up 10-9 at the break had Tyrod Taylor not thrown an egregious interception to conclude the otherwise impressive first offensive drive of the game. But, in the third quarter, the Patriots took control of the game and coasted to what became another relatively easy win for them at New Era Field. They are the clear favourites, once again, to go another Superbowl in February. If they do, it will be their 8th in the Brady/Belichick era. The Steelers look to have the best shot at unseating them this season with a head-to-head match-up slated for December 17th.

When CBS announced in the summer that Tony Romo would replace Phil Simms as the network's lead colour analyst, alongside Jim Nantz doing play-by-play, it smacked a little of desperation. Admittedly, Simms had been weak for years and needed to be shuffled along somewhere (he ended up on the CBS studio team) but the selection of Romo as the network's lead colour man, with no broadcasting experience at all, seemed odd. Now, with three quarters of a season under his belt - and having watched several games with him doing colour - I am prepared to say that not only is he absolutely outstanding in the role, I firmly believe that he is the best football colour commentator I have ever heard. He is insightful (which isn't a surprise given that he was the starting quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys just last season), he is chatty without being the slightest bit irritating, timely in his situational analysis and able to explain player emotions from each team's perspective. He is so comfortable in his role that it seems amazing that he has been on the job for only about 13 weeks. Romo had his moments - good and bad - as the Cowboys quarterback but he has found his true calling as a television colour analyst.

The Bills are still in the thick of the AFC wildcard race, despite the season feeling like it's slipping away. At 6-6, three of the next four games - one against Indianapolis and two against the Dolphins - are definitely winnable. They play at New England on Christmas Eve in week 16. The Patriots may have home field locked up by then but probably not so a 9-7 finish is easily within reach and could possibly be enough to secure the final wildcard spot but probably won't be. The Drought will continue.