Ravens 35, Bills 10

Nothing like an old-fashioned butt-kicking to bring a 3-0 football team back to reality in a league where parity is the most consistent trend. I’m not sure how the Ravens lost their first two games earlier this month but based on last night’s dominating performance against the Bills, who looked truly over-matched in all three phases of the game, they probably won’t lose many more. They earned the top seed in the AFC last season for good reason and will again be relevant in January. The Bills haven’t suffered a blow-out loss since a home thrashing by the Colts three years ago.

Going into last night’s game, the Bills v Ravens all-time series counted only 11 games with the Ravens leading 6-5. This of course does not include the period before Art Modell moved his team from Cleveland to Baltimore for the 1996 season. Going into last night’s game, the Bills had won the last two, including a 17-3 playoff game in January of 2021 where Taron Johnson returned an interception over 100 yards to seal the win before a few thousand COVID-weary fans in Orchard Park.       

What follows here is not buyer’s remorse in any shape or form but my recent investment in Buffalo Bills seat licences - which is obviously a long position in the NFL itself - is not one without risks. The main risk is that the desire on the part of North American sports fans to watch live NFL games on TV may diminish over time. Television and the massive network broadcast deals which the league has been able to secure represents the main source of revenue for the NFL and its team owners. Over the past few years, fantasy teams and the ubiquity and popularity of legal gambling – through game-by-game results, individual player production and a myriad of propositions on which to bet have further boosted the NFL’s already massive TV ratings. Just when it seems like televised NFL games couldn’t possibly attract any more viewers, every year, including the first three weeks of the 2024 season, ratings somehow move ever higher. NFL Network operates year-round - not only during the actual five-month football season but attracts impressive viewership even during the seven-month off-season. The live games themselves together with pre-game and post-game analysis on the major networks dominate Sundays from mid-morning to midnight and the NFL on TV has a firm grip on Thursday nights and Monday nights too. Is there such a thing as too much football – a saturation point beyond which some fans may turn away from sheer exhaustion? So far, the answer seems clearly to be no. It isn’t clear how the NFL could possibly push it further - other than adding an 18^th regular season game for each team which feels like a done deal starting in the next couple of years – but if they can come up with a strategy to push the envelope further, they surely will. How far can it really go? The league came up with a tagline a few years which it doesn’t use much but I’m sure they paid consultants a fortune for it: “Forever Forward; Forever Football”. I would add “Forever Upward TV Ratings”.

I see another long-term risk on the horizon for the NFL in the form of a diminishing pool of players. While junior, high school and college football all remain very popular in the United States, the number of high schools which field football teams every year is declining. Maybe not by enough to make a difference quite yet but the trend seems clear. In 2016, I attended Homecoming Weekend - my class’s 35^th graduation anniversary - at Ridley College in St. Catharines. I had always enjoyed the Saturday afternoon of Homecoming Weekend in the field-side beer garden, catching up with old friends and cheering on the football team as they played UCC or SAC or TCS. But, unbeknownst to me, starting a couple of years before, the football program was cancelled. I ended up having a fairly long conversation that day with the relatively new Headmaster at the time and I asked him why the football program was no longer. He explained that there were several reasons: (1) injury liability / insurance costs: How many youth football players died in the US this fall? At least two or three that I saw reported. How many serious knee injuries and concussions were there? Too many to count. (2) declining interest on the part of students and probably more importantly, their parents. Remember when Justin Timberlake said a few years ago at his press conference the week before he was to take the stage at the Superbowl halftime show, in response to a reporter’s question about possibly seeing his son in an NFL uniform one day “my kid won’t be playing football, that’s for sure”? “Wrong answer” is what Roger Goodell undoubtedly said to himself as he watched Timberlake’s press conference. (3) cost: 50 or 60 sets of football equipment is pretty expensive compared to the equipment needed for just about any other sport. Coaches, trainers, doctors and managers suck up school resources which could be allocated elsewhere. He told me that it was a difficult decision but an inevitable one. I guess there was soccer game to watch that afternoon somewhere but no one seemed to care.

We already see that the majority of NFL players now come from mostly black, mostly low-income backgrounds in the southern states. High school football games in Texas and Georgia and Alabama still attract 10,000 or more fans on Friday nights and that will probably continue for a long time. But in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Maine, the number of high schools with football programs will continue to decrease over time – maybe quite slowly but eventually enough to reduce the talent pool which will continue on to play in college and then the NFL. We will still watch NFL football on television for the time being. But 20 or 30 years from now……..ok, we will probably still watch then too. And bet. And obsess over our fantasy teams. And that’s why I went long on the NFL.

Up next for the Bills is another tough road game, this time in Houston against Stefon Diggs and the Houston Texans. It’s a rare Sunday 1pm game.

Bills 47, Jaguars 10

The first game I attended in Orchard Park as a Buffalo Bills season ticket holder – opening day of the 2004 season – did not go down in the annals of NFL history as a classic. Quite the opposite actually as two of the league’s weaker teams generated less than 500 yards of total offence combined. With the Bills leading 10-6, Jacksonville got the ball one last time in the game’s final minutes. On a long fourth down pass, Bills cornerback Nate Clements could have easily swatted the ball to the ground to end the game but, on account of either a brain cramp or an attempt to pad his personal statistics, he instead tried for the interception which redirected the ball into the Jags receiver’s hands to prolong the drive. Then, on the last play of the game, another fourth down from the Bills seven-yard line, after three straight incomplete passes, Byron Leftwich found Ernest Wilford who was somehow able to make the catch in double coverage and get both feet down just inside the back of the endzone. Final score: Jags 13, Bills 10.

Going into last night’s tilt at Highmark Stadium, the Bills and Jags had played 19 times, including two playoff games, with the Jags leading the all-time series 10-9. To say that the Bills have underperformed against Jacksonville over the last 30 years would be like saying that Donald Trump isn’t always entirely truthful in his campaign speeches. Two separate debacles in London – the EJ Manuel interception clinic in 2015 and last year’s injury-fest, two excruciating playoff games – a 30-27 home loss in 1996 which would be the last game of Jim Kelly’s NFL career and then a profoundly frustrating 10-3 loss in January, 2018 which ended the 17-year playoff drought and would also be the final game of the Tyrod Taylor era. For no apparent reason, the Bills have had more than their share of bad luck, poor quarterback play, injuries and generally crushing disappointment against this small market team which at best enjoys tepid fan support in its college football crazy part of north Florida. I did attend one Bills v Jags game at Rich Stadium where things went well for the home side: a 1998 17-16 win where Doug Flutie scored the winning touchdown scampering untouched to the left side on a naked bootleg on the last play of the game.

I was in Williamsville last week at a nondescript plaza on Main Street just off the 290. That’s where the Bills have set up their Stadium Experience space to present renderings of the new Highmark Stadium, help season ticket holders select their new seats and most importantly to guide them through the process of opening their wallets to purchase seat licences. What I’ll say is that the new stadium will be a vast improvement over the current brutalist concrete bunker which opened in 1973. Much larger concourses, wider seating rows, better designed parking ingress and egress, much better separation of pedestrians and vehicles in and around the roadways and parking lots (there’s basically none now and people get hit regularly) and more entry gates are just a few of the improvements which Bills fans will notice at the new stadium. They will definitely be paying more for tickets – and undoubtedly for everything else too. One interesting difference is that there will be seating sections right at each 50 yard line as opposed to it being an aisle like in the current stadium. I was lucky enough to secure seats in one of these sections – on the visitor’s side at the 48 yard line, 22 rows up from the field. I’m pretty happy with that. My financial advisor isn’t convinced that the seat licences represent a sound investment but he’s never attended an NFL game and therefore has no business offering an opinion on it.

As many times as I have crossed the US border in a car, it amazes me how often the border guards can come up with a question I’ve never been asked before. After explaining where, why and for how long I was going, as he handed my passport back to me, he asked me “who owns this vehicle?”.  I said “I do”. That answer seemed satisfactory and I was on my way to the white-knuckle bridges of Grand Island. These bridges are quite steep and, if you look, you can see the Niagara River far below through the guardrails. It terrifies me but, like a typical Bills v Jags game, I just can’t look away.  

Although it didn’t fit the historical Bills v Jags pattern, I couldn’t – and didn’t – look away from last night’s game at all. An offensive clinic in the first half turned the whole second half into garbage time and the Bills coasted to an easy win. Although his first convert attempt was blocked, Tyler Bass was perfect on the next five converts and added two field goals as well. This should stop the work-outs of other kickers which did happen last week. I loved what the Elvis guy had on the back of his guitar: “Everybody eats when James Cooks”.

Next up is a very tough assignment: off a short week at Baltimore to face the Ravens on Sunday Night Football. They are coming off a big win in Dallas – amazingly, their first of the season. This is the first of three straight road games for the Bills who travel to Houston the following week then to the Meadowlands to face the Jets after that before returning home tom face the Titans. Baltimore is an early 2.5 point favourite.

Bills 31, Dolphins 10

A safe estimate of Tua Tagovailoa’s career earnings to date is in the range of $75 million, including $42 million already this year. Two months ago, the Miami Dolphins signed him to a four-year $212 million contract extension – one of the richest contracts in NFL history (although since surpassed, most recently by Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys), of which $167 million is “guaranteed” (with some caveats such as if he is “cleared to play” but chooses to retire, he forfeits the remainder of the contract). If he really is the wholesome family man he is purported to be, he surely still has plenty of that $75 million he’s earned. He probably doesn’t drive a Dodge Caravan but probably not a $350,000 McLaren 720 LS Coupe either, like his teammate Tyreek Hill does. He is said to be an evangelical Christian, dedicated to his wife and two children, popular with his teammates and is also known as good and decent person.

Tua suffered his third “official” NFL concussion (he had a fourth while playing college for Alabama) in Thursday’s loss to the Bills, as he extended his body to gain an extra yard or two after easily gaining a first down as the Dolphins tried to chip away at a 21-point deficit. His helmet collided with Damar Hamlin’s knee in a moderately innocent looking play but he was clearly injured in the process. I figured it was a neck stinger or a perhaps vertebra issue as the impact clearly cranked his head to his left. He was slow to stand and looked foggy as he made his way not to the blue tent but directly to the locker room where he was diagnosed and ruled out of the remainder of the game very quickly. Although he played all of last season without a head injury (as far as we know), in 2022, he was concussed officially twice but most observers agree that there was also a third one which was, at best not properly diagnosed and, at worst covered up by medical staff. One of them was severe enough that he was unable to stand afterward. Four concussions in a two-year span. I’d say that if he wants to be a functioning father for his children and have a chance at a long and healthy life (it may be too late already), he should retire from football. Will he? Dolphins fans may understandably feel conflicted about this because second-stringer Skylar Thompson, who finished the game under centre for the Dolphins, looked like he was barely qualified to play at the junior college level.  

I read what seemed like a credible account of the bodycam video from the Miami police officer who “interacted” with Tyreek Hill before the Dolphins week one game. Rather than showing any deference or cooperation to the officer, Hill insisted on keeping his tinted window closed after lowering it a couple of inches to hand over his licence and registration. When the officer tapped on the window to advise him to keep it rolled down, Hill could be heard saying several times “don’t tap on my window like that” and “just write up the ticket and let me go”.  The officer finally had enough of Hill’s insubordination and ordered him from the car and onto the ground where bystanders filmed the rest of the encounter. Another approach Hill could have taken, it seems to me, would have been to roll the window fully down and say “Hello officer, I’m Tyreek Hill. I’m on my way to the stadium for today’s season opener and I was going over the game plan in my mind and I guess I lost track of how fast I was going. Sorry about that. Can I autograph something for you?” This approach or one along those lines, I suggest, would likely have resulted in no ticket, no take-down and no story. But Hill chose to be a jerk about it and then later called for the officer to be fired. Apparently, this officer has a checkered history on the job but Hill has had more than his own share of unsavoury legal troubles related to domestic violence. Maybe he should try to hand around more with Tua Tagovailoa.

This past week, I finally received an invitation to the Bills Stadium Experience at a suburban mall in northeast Buffalo where the goal (from the team’s perspective) is to present to me a virtual overview of the new stadium (they ask that no photos be taken), help me select my new seats and try to close the deal on my purchase of two seat licences. It sort of feels like I’m going to hear a sales pitch for a time-share but we’ll see. I do know the cost of the licences but I won’t disclose it here. I’ve been asked to set aside 90 minutes of my time for this appointment. Probably more if I hesitate to subscribe. I’ve never been to Williamsville but I hear its beautiful this time of year.

Yesterday I watched parts of the Jets v. Titans game, hoping for a Titans win which did not happen. Also saw a lot of the Chiefs v. Bengals game, hoping for a Bengals win which also did not happen.

The Bills are now 2-0 and enjoying a 12 day break after Thursday’s strong performance in Miami. Injuries continue to pile up on the defensive side with Terrel Bernard now out for about four weeks with a pectoral strain – better than a tear which ended Daquan Jones’ season last year.  

Up next is a Monday Night home game against the Jacksonville Jaguars who, at 0-2, will be desperate to salvage their playoff prospects.

Bills 34, Cardinals 28

When the Bills traded Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans in the off-season, burdening the team with a massive “dead cap” number by so doing, the most enduring video clip over the ensuing months has been his dropped pass in the Divisional Playoff game in Orchard Park on January 21^st. With the Bills trailing the Chiefs 27-24 late in the fourth quarter, Josh Allen dropped a perfectly placed deep ball into Diggs breadbasket. From our vantage point, the play was to the far side of the field and as Diggs turned to his right to make the catch attempt, his back was turned to us, leaving us to see the ball sailing into his arms (and as we know through his arms) with the defender close behind. At the time, I thought he had made the catch but of course he had not. The Bills went on to punt and the Chiefs simply ground out the necessary first downs they needed to run the clock out, advance to the AFC Championship Game and go on to win the Superbowl. I have now seen that drop multiple times from every available angle and I still wonder how things may have played out had he made the catch. The team just may have been unveiling its first Superbowl banner yesterday in Orchard Park (it actually would have been this past Thursday as the defending champs open each NFL season with a week one Thursday home game), Diggs would probably still be wearing a Bills uniform and this season would be their own attempt to repeat as champions.

Through most of the first half of yesterday’s season opener in a blustery Orchard Park, it felt like 2024 might be the rebuilding year Bills fans hoped that it would not be. A healthy Kyler Murray was able to move the ball seemingly at will against the Bills still-depleted defence and a classic Josh Allen sack/fumble/turnover on the first drive created a sinking feeling and I had visions of an 8-9 season accompanied by thoughts of the benefits of greatly increased salary cap space and inventory of draft capital going into 2025. A loss to the lowly Cardinals, who drafted Marvin Harrison, Jr with the fourth overall pick in April, could cast a long shadow over what might end up being a lost season. A step back to absorb the dead cap hit, re-tool the receiving corps and defensive backfield might just be what we would have to endure as we prepare to move to a new stadium (and pay a lot more to see live NFL football) in 2026. But, as quickly as the prospect of a lost season loomed, the team gathered itself in the second half and squeaked out a win in a game not decided until the final minute. The fans went home happy. For now.

Yesterday was the first real exposure for most of us to the new and still somewhat incomprehensible kick-off format. As I understand the logic, there were two goals in mind which brought about the change: to create fewer touchbacks and more kick returns and to limit injuries from players colliding at full speed. I’d say that goal number two will be achieved because of the elimination of the running by the kicking team but in the limited sample I saw yesterday, in the Bills game and others I saw parts of, it seems like there are just as many touchbacks as there were under the old rules. We did see a few twists such as the Cardinals kicker failing to reach the landing zone giving the Bills the ball at their own 40 yard line, Tyler Bass kicking the ball out of bounds in an attempt to hit the landing zone kicking into a strong wind, also giving the Cardinals the ball at their 40 yard line and, most importantly, the Bills giving up a touchdown on a kick-off return. Take away the wind yesterday and it looked like we would see just as many touchbacks as before. The only real difference is that the receiving team gets the ball on its own 30 yard line on a touchback. I’m sure I’ll get used to the new kick-off format but seeing the kicker standing alone, 40 yards from any other player, is a strange look indeed. When punter Sam Martin came out to hold the ball on the tee for Tyler Bass (on account of wind), as was pointed out on the CBS broadcast, it was the first time in NFL history that a team legally fielded 12 players.  

We watched a bit of college football on Saturday. The Michigan game went the way the Bills game looked like it was going (for fans of the blue and maize), Notre Dame lost at home to Northern Illinois and the Deion Sanders coached Colorado Buffaloes lost to the Cornhuskers in Lincoln, NE. After seeing Deion Sanders (“Prime Time” or more commonly, “Prime”) wearing his trademark sunglasses throughout last season and again this season, I wondered what brand they were and how much they cost….maybe $2,000? Maybe more? They look like they’re gold-plated or something. Well, the answer is that they are made by Blenders and are called Prime 21. They come in white or black frames and retail for $89 USD. Over the last year, Sanders has made them one of the most popular brands of sunglasses. So, I ordered a pair to look as cool as possible on canoe trips. White frames.

Up next for the Bills is a very short week and a tough Thursday night game in the humidity of south Florida against the Dolphins who eked out a win yesterday against their northern Florida cousins, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Tyreek Hill will be taking an Uber to the stadium.