Bills 30, Rams 19

Rams fans are questioning Jeff Fisher's decision to go with a fake punt attempt on a 4th and 5 deep in his own territory with less than 4 minutes to go and trailing by 4 points. The Bills were ready for it, stopped it and went on to score the game clinching touchdown. As the Rams lined up to punt, I was thinking this possibility: with only 5 yards needed for a first down, the chances seemed good that Fisher might try it. If I were a Rams fan, I hope that I would have the perspective to appreciate that it was a reasonable call (although obviously a high risk one) in a game where the Rams needed a touchdown or they would lose the game. The trouble with such a call in such a critical situation is that if it doesn't work, the game is over. And it was.

When the Bills traded linebacker Kiko Alonso to the Eagles before last season for running back LeSean McCoy, detractors said that the NFL had become a passing league and that serviceable running backs could be found in the later rounds of the draft and there was no need to trade valuable assets for a featured back. Under former offensive coordinator Greg Roman, through a full season and two more games this year, McCoy's production was decent at times but probably less than what Bills fans had hoped for when he was acquired. In the three games since Anthony Lynn became offensive coordinator, McCoy has been fantastic and yesterday was, in my opinion, his best game in a Bills uniform, gaining 150 yards on the ground.

Tyrod Taylor's play at quarterback over the course of the Bills current three game winning streak has been less than eye-popping in terms of the usual statistical accumulation expected from franchise quarterbacks. The key statistic for me, on the other hand - and one which sometimes isn't tracked as closely as it should be - is turnovers. In Taylor's case, the dominating statistic is his lack of them. The quarterback, more than any player on the field, has the potential to cause turnovers through the usual course of ball handling, receiving snaps from centre in the shotgun formation, interceptions and sacks/blind side hits which lead to fumbles. How may times did we see JP Losman or even Drew Bledsoe, at critical points in games, hold on to the ball for too long, get sacked and fumble away a game? How many times have we seen Tyrod Taylor do the same? I can't think of any. This man protects the ball and avoids disastrous plays. Sure, he doesn't throw for 300 yards on a weekly basis and sometimes lacks the right touch on certain passes but I will take his modest statistical production combined with his commitment to ball protection - any time. Combining a very strong running game with a competent quarterback who protects the ball is a winning formula and the Bills have proven this over the past three weeks.

Now at 3-2, the Bills have what looks to be an easy out coming up with the San Francicso 49ers coming to Orchard Park next Sunday. I will be watching the 49er bench during the national anthem as coach Chip Kelly will likely start Colin Kaepernick at quarterback. The 49ers are rated at or near the bottom of the league in most analysts power rankings so I look for the Bills to possibly be double digit favourites for the first time in a very long time. Their well documented struggles over the past 16 years have not presented the Bills with many games where they could potentially overlook a weak opponent and I hope they don't start this week. A trip to south Florida to play the reeling Dolphins is on for the following week before a home re-match with the Patriots on October 30th where the AFC East lead could be on the line.

I made sure to put new batteries in my TV remote yesterday morning with the early slate of NFL games, the Bills late kick-off in Los Angeles and then the Blue Jays clinching their series with Texas to earn their second consecutive trip to the ALCS. But at 9pm, my TV was locked on to the second presidential debate which I watched almost in its entirety while checking on the baseball game.

Like many who follow politics, I think I have officially run out of things to say about the campaign. I will offer only this comment: The sheer volume of outrageous statements made by Trump over the past year or so has served to anesthetize us from feeling the contempt and outrage we should over the things has said recently - and one thing in particular from last night. I'm talking about his threat to "direct" his Attorney General (if elected President) to appoint a special prosecutor to go after Hillary Clinton. That's right: a public commitment to prosecute his political opponent.

David Frum said it best on Twitter yesterday: if you left Trump alone in a room with a bottle of whiskey and a revolver and advised him to just do the right thing, when you went back to the room, he would shoot you in the face.    

        

Bills 16, Patriots 0

Rex Ryan repeated several times in his post-game press conference that yesterday's win was great but that the Patriots were "down a man", referring of course to Tom Brady who is set to return next week from his four game deflate-gate related suspension. They were down more that one man with second string quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo also inactive yesterday and star tight end Rob Gronkowski seeing limited duty and recording only one reception in the game. But still. A win in New England when it counts - unlike the last game of the 2014 season when the Bills won against a Patriots team which had clinched home field throughout the playoffs - is quite an achievement and something which two weeks ago seemed almost unthinkable.

The score was actually flattering to the Patriots who were thoroughly dominated throughout the game. With the exception of two deep passes which were each slightly overthrown and would have resulted in touchdowns, Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor looked like a franchise NFL quarterback yesterday. The offensive game plan and series to series play calling were excellent yesterday and have been much improved over the past two weeks - certainly compared to the first two weeks, After hitting what appeared to be rock-bottom following a prime time loss to the Jets then changing offensive coordinators, prospects for the Bills season were looking bleak after two weeks. But now at 2-2, they find themselves only a game back of the Patriots with a re-match coming up, with Tom Brady back in the line-up, on October 30th in Orchard Park. Suddenly, the division title, while still a steep hill to climb, is no longer a total fantasy. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. This week offers another stiff test: a trip to Los Angeles to face a Rams team which is playing well and is enjoying strong support from football fans in southern California.

I was watching Rudy Giuliani offer his thoughts on the Donald Trump tax issue which has dominated the US campaign this past week. He said that Trump was a "genius" for arranging his financial affairs so as to pay no taxes for as many as 20 years after claiming a loss of nearly $1 billion in the 1995 tax year. Trump himself, in Monday's debate, referred to himself as "smart" for not paying taxes. Many very smart Americans, with the help of their lawyers and accountants, pay no income taxes. They are rich and paying no taxes helps to keep them that way. Are they smart for paying no taxes? Maybe but I really doubt that Trump is being smart about this issue in the current political context. His base of support lies among disaffected, white, working class males, many of whom have lost their high-paying, low-skilled manufacturing jobs to Mexico or to China or elsewhere. But when they working, they had little opportunity to reduce, defer or evade paying their taxes which were usually deducted at source by their employers. Even if they had concerns about how much tax they were paying or how the government spent some of their hard-earned money, they understood the connection between the taxes they were paying and the operations of the military, border services and police - all things which Trump has advocated for building up.

Throughout the campaign, Donald Trump has broken all of the conventional rules which candidates generally follow. He had made outrageous (and often false) statements on various issues and has viciously attacked his opponents. Through it all, he has somehow continued to poll well, keep the race tight and he amazingly remains within reach of the presidency. There are five more weeks of campaigning and two more nationally televised debates with Hillary Clinton where Trump can try to re-frame the tax issue if he chooses to do so but his pattern has been to double and triple down on things he has said or on positions he has taken. The Democrats will likely continue to hammer the tax issue and if Trump holds to his claim that he's smart not to pay taxes, his base may finally soften enough to cost him the election.

 

Bills 33, Cardinals 18

This weekend, I was at the school I attended from grades 6 through 13 to mark the 35th year since graduation for my class. I hadn't been back for what I first knew as Old Boys Weekend (now Ridley Association Weekend) since 2001. When I do go back, I always enjoy time spent in the beer tent casually watching - but watching - First Team Football play UCC or TCS or SAC on Saturday afternoon while reconnecting with old friends and faculty. The beer tent was still there, as was the reminiscing with old friends but guess what? Ridley has no football team now and hasn't for about 7 years. The program was deemed to be too expensive but with the school being fully 50/50 coed and with increasing concern about injuries (and concussions and related issues in particular), student interest in the football program was declining to the point where it was becoming difficult to field a team. So, they canned it.

I discussed this briefly with one of my class-mates who was actually the quarterback of the Ridley football team in my senior year (and who I watched being inducted into the new Ridley Athletic Lives of Distinction before lunch on Saturday), I figured that he wouldn't be pleased to see the football program scrapped. But he actually agrees with the decision as he now considers that the risk of serious injury to 16, 17 and 18 year-old young men just can not be justified, at least not at Ridley. Fair enough, I guess but the reunion isn't the same for me without the football game. Hopefully, I'll adjust in time for our 40th in five years.

I know that other high schools of various sizes in Ontario have moved on from their football programs for various reasons, but the trend doesn't bode well for the future of the sport on this side of the border anyway. In the US, I suspect that the move away from high school football will also take hold but it will be slower and less widespread, particularly in the South. The tradition of high school football on Friday nights in the US will undoubtedly hang on for a long time but participation rates in junior football are now in decline and I don't see that changing in the long term as we continue to learn more about brain injuries.

On a much more positive note, the Bills broke into the win column in a big way yesterday at a sun-drenched New Era Field (which I firmly believe should be called New Era Field at Ralph Wilson Stadium, allowing the Pegulas to collect their naming revenue while still honouring the franchise's founder). The team responded to the urgency of avoiding an 0-3 start with strong performances registered on both sides of the ball and on special teams which contributed a touchdown after a costly error by Arizona's long snapper. As Rex Ryan said afterward, "I don't know if anyone needed a win worse than we did".

So the Bills clearly performed well against what was last year a top NFC team. Great. But as Mike Schopp pointed out on WGR after the game, throughout the 16 year playoff drought, the team has certainly won some games - usually enough to fall just short of a wildcard spot. Remember, as Jerry Sullivan of the Buffalo News pointed out a few years ago, Dick Jauron used to string up 7-9 seasons like Christmas lights on his house. The question is: can the team now take its success from yesterday and win in New England next week? If they can, at 2-2, they would have a shot at ending the drought but, if they can't beat the Patriots without Tom Brady next Sunday, at 1-3, it seems that the playoff drought will be so much more likely to continue.

Tonight's Monday Night Football game between the Falcons and the Saints will have some stiff competition starting half an hour after kick-off as the first Presidential debate is set to go at 9pm. The campaign has been so bizarre up to now that predicting the impact of the debates on its trajectory feels very difficult indeed. The only thing which seems clear is that ratings for this first debate will be much higher than usual, regardless of how compelling the football game is.

Key questions leading into tonight's debate include: Will Hillary come out swinging? Will Trump be rattled? And perhaps most importantly, will tonight's moderator, NBC New anchor Lester Holt, call out either of the candidates should they say things which are obviously not true? An audience of more than 100 million is expected to tune in to see. I predict that both candidates will be more reserved than expected and that many viewers will flip back to the game after a short time.  

Jets 37, Bills 31

It felt as if we were experiencing the first day of a post-apocalyptic world. It was a few minutes before 3am on a Friday as we approached our shining city from the west on the Gardiner Expressway. There were virtually no other vehicles around as we cruised effortlessly over the Humber River toward the Jamieson exit and the elevated portion of the roadway. If only those who travel this road every day from Oakville, Burlington, Hamilton or beyond could experience this level of tranquility and peacefulness. Driving in Toronto is a breeze during a short two hour window between 2.30 and 4.30am. Leaving the Buffalo, NY area well after midnight en route to Toronto is all it takes.

The Bills season is now on the verge of disaster as the team faces a very likely 0-4 start with Arizona and New England on the schedule the next two weeks. The 1998 team went 0-3 and still made the playoffs but the chances of a turnaround seem slim now as turmoil surrounds the team. After an anemic offensive performance in week 1, week 2 saw an improvement in that area, aided by two long passing plays for touchdowns, but the Bills defence was completely stumped by the Jets and two key individuals who are both very familiar to Bills fans: journeyman quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and former Bills head coach and current Jets offensive coordinator Chan Gailey. On the night when Bruce Smith's number was retired at a halftime ceremony MC'd by ESPN's Chris Berman, the Jets piled up 493 yards of offence on Thursday night, including 374 yards through the air. The Bills secondary looked out-matched and confused by Gailey's game plan and Ryan Fitzpatrick looked like a top-ranked NFL quarterback.

Multiple reports suggest that the Bills owners, Terry and Kim Pegula, met privately with key Bills offensive players on Friday morning, unbeknownst to head coach Rex Ryan. The Pegulas were apparently unhappy with the style of play calling on offence through two weeks and were looking for confirmation of their concerns from within the locker room. Why their concern that morning did not include questions about the defensive game plan or execution is unknown. The reports say that after the player meetings, the owners then approached the head coach and suggested that offensive coordinator Greg Roman had to go. Ryan then announced a few hours later that he had decided to relieve Roman of his duties and that ownership was supportive of his decision. Ryan not only looks foolish for suggesting that the decision was his but he is obviously not currently not enjoying the confidence of ownership.

Since he retired from coaching after winning the Superbowl with the Steelers in 2005, Bills fans have been speculating, wondering and hoping that current CBS analyst Bill Cowher might return to coaching and that he might be interested in the Buffalo job. I am aware of absolutely no evidence of his interest in a return to coaching in the league generally or in the Bills job specifically but Bills fans have needed some kind of hope to hang on to as the team's playoff drought is about to reach 17 years. The CBS Thursday Night Football makeshift broadcast desk and crew of James Brown, Deion Sanders and Cowher was set up just below our seats at about the 25 yard line. We watched them go through their pre-game analysis between 8pm and kick-off 25 minutes later and when the game started, Cowher stood alone (mostly) on the sideline very intently watching the game, making the occasional note and receiving statistical updates from the production crew. He is a student of the game and would be welcomed in Buffalo if he ever were to want to coach the team but his current gig allows him more sleep, less stress and plenty of money.

With a new offensive coordinator, Anthony Lynn, now in place, the Bills prepare for the Arizona Cardinals who come to Orchard Park next weekend for the first time since 2008. The Cardinals are considered one of the top teams in the NFC, with a dominating defence and big play capability on offence. If the Bills can somehow pull off an upset, their season could be salvaged, especially with some key players returning from injury and suspension in another week or two. Maybe the Cardinals will look past Buffalo as they return to Phoenix to face the Rams in week 4. More likely is that the Pegulas will need to hold another secret player meeting a week from today.

Ravens 13, Bills 7

Earlier this year, I read an interview with Bills Hall of Fame running back Thurman Thomas who had decided to speak publicly about the concussion related problems he has been having over the 15 years since his retirement from the NFL. His first public comments on the issue came at a concussion summit in Niagara Falls, Ontario in April. Thomas said that he does not discuss these problems with family or friends but decided to speak out in order to help the medical community better understand the condition that he shares with many former NFL players and to build awareness of the issue generally.

Thomas said that he suffers from frequent mood swings which have taken their toll on his family and friends. He also recounted an incident where he was driving home on a familiar route and, for a short time, he had no idea where he was or where he was going. Shortly afterward, he had an MRI done on his brain and his doctor described his frontal lobe as being similar to that of someone who fell off a house and landed on the front of his head. His condition is worsening and he's scared. His wife has decided that she no longer wants the couple's 14 year old son, who has already missed games from concussions, to continue playing football. His comments at the concussion forum included a statement that his going public with his story does not make him any less of a man, any less tough or any less loyal to the NFL. It was obvious that he had considered these questions carefully before speaking out.

I was saddened by this story. Thomas is a distinguished member of the Bills alumae, a resident of the Buffalo area and an active member of the community. As a running back, he certainly would have endured his share of hard hits but it seemed to me that his small stature and low centre of gravity allowed him to generally avoid serious hits to the head. But he played football since he he was a child growing up in Houston, then obviously played high school and college football at a high level before being drafted by the Bills in 1988. Those years of contact have now caught up with him and Thomas is now realizing that the game which made him relatively wealthy and famous (at least among football fans) is now seriously diminishing his quality of life.

As Rex Ryan entered his second training camp as Bills head coach, I was optimistic that the team, and the defence in particular, would benefit from the continuity of a returning coaching staff with the same systems and philosophy. But as the pre-season progressed, things began to unravel as a combination of injuries and substance abuse suspensions depleted the line-up. The Bills top two picks in April's draft are out with injuries - one of which is season ending. Two starters, stud defensive lineman Marcel Dareus and offensive lineman Seantrel Henderson, like to smoke marijuana apparently and have each received 4 game suspensions for positive tests. Without commenting on the appropriateness of the league's substance policies, they are the rules which are in place and they are well known to players. Perhaps they could have followed the rules rather than leaving their team short-handed. There's plenty of time to get high after football.

These stories provided the back-drop for yesterday's regular season opener in Baltimore and I must admit that I was not feeling particularly optimistic about the team's fortunes or about the long term viability of the NFL as the most dominant force in North American professional sports. But I tuned in anyway, leaving the critically important Blue Jays baseball game to be watched only on commercial breaks from the Bills game. It was a ridiculously frustrating game to watch as the offense sputtered badly and penalties took their toll. The Bills were unable to stop the Ravens running game when it mattered most - near the end of the game - and opened the season with a loss in a game where they played well enough to win. But in the NFL, I think almost every team plays well enough to win 10 games.

Maybe a short week is what the team needs to get back on track as the 0-1 Jets come to Orchard Park on Thursday night. We're leaving Toronto after lunch but I will be sure to get a nap in on Wednesday as we won't be home until probably 3am.

 

Broncos 24, Panthers 10

Pre-game estimates of the worldwide television audience for last night's Superbowl broadcast were in the range of about 190 million with a US audience expected to be at least as big as last year's 114 million. We'll find out this week but I expect that the ratings will prove to have slipped a little as the game was not especially compelling throughout and the final few minutes provided little drama as the Broncos relatively easily closed out the third Superbowl win in franchise history.

While the Superbowl remains the largest annual television event in the US, its worldwide audience is dwarfed by the summer Olympics and by the FIFA World Cup. The IOC estimated that 3.6 billion viewers watched at least one minute of the London games in 2012 and FIFA says that its 2014 World Cup tournament reached 3.2 billion viewers around the world. In terms of non-sporting events, Princess Diana's 1997 funeral drew about 2.5 billion viewers.

The game last night came down to two plays, both involving the Broncos Von Miller and Panthers quarterback Cam Newton. Miller forced Newton to fumble on each play deep in his own end and the Broncos converted both turnovers into touchdowns which together represented the 14 point margin of victory. Was the Denver defence just really good last night or did Cam Newton have his worst game of the year? I'd say both. We've always heard that defence wins championships but I had predicted that Carolina's offence would find a way to run over the league's number one ranked defence. I was obviously wrong.

I hope that Bills coach Rex Ryan was watching carefully and that the game will motivate him and his twin brother Rob to restore the Bills defence to something closer to its 2014 form. I also hope that the team can sign its linebacker (and my namesake), Nigel Bradham, to a new contract now that he is a free agent. If he signs a long term deal in Buffalo, I hereby undertake to purchase his game jersey. He's probably headed elsewhere, thereby saving me about $150 USD.

So, another NFL season is in the books. And just in time maybe as the Commissioner Roger Goodell spent as much time talking down growing concerns about concussions and their long term effects on players as he did about the continued competitive and financial success of the league. The latest serving of bad news in this regard is related to Oakland Raider great Ken Stabler, who died last year of complications related to colon cancer. Last week, just in time for the final few days of Superbowl hype, it was announced that his brain was found to have advanced CTE, the much-feared degenerative disease caused by repeated concussions. Goodell continues to tell us that player safety is of paramount importance to the league as evidenced by recent rule changes, equipment innovations and its ever-improving concussion "protocol". He claims that the game has never been safer for players but this obviously ignores the fact that the basic nature of the game is inherently dangerous and that can not and will not change. In his "state of the league" press conference last week, Goodell went so far as to directly encourage more participation in junior football programs as football builds character and teaches teamwork and discipline. While youth participation in all organized team sports is down across the US over the last decade or so, football has seen an 18% drop in participation as more parents are steering their kids clear of what they know is a dangerous game. The families of Mike Webster, Dave Duerson, Junior Seau and many others can surely relate,

But the NFL will endure - at least for the time being. Fans will now turn their attention to the off-season rituals of the scouting combine, free agency, the draft, spring OTAs and then, by the end of July, training camps will open and the 2016 season will get underway after Labour Day. I know I'll be there.    

Bills 22, Jets 17

I was really still feeling quite relaxed after the Jets closed the gap to 19-17 in yesterday's final game of the season in Orchard Park. That was for two reasons: first, the Bills would end the season at either 7-9 if they had lost or at 8-8 had they won but out of the playoffs for a 16th consecutive season either way and with a higher draft position to be gained by closing the season out with a loss. The other reason was that the Jets, who were in a "win and in" situation, were quarterbacked by one Ryan Fitzpatrick with whom Bills fans were very familiar. The Harvard gunslinger has had an impressive season with the Jets and he had also put in an impressive performance for much of the game yesterday too. But I was highly confident that he would, when the game was on the line, force a pass into double coverage or otherwise find a way to throw a game-changing interception at a critical time. He did just that yesterday - twice actually - first to end a drive which would have given the Jets lead with a either a field goal or a touchdown and then, on the next drive, to seal the game and keep his team out of the playoffs. Steeler nation was likely not quite as relaxed as I was but things worked out for them thanks to the hapless Cleveland Browns, the Bills effort yesterday and to Fitzpatrick. He plays a high risk style which seems to pay-off when the stakes are low but always turns disastrous when it really matters. He was suitably distraught after the game and I felt for him.

So, at 8-8, another Bills season of mediocrity has ended. Another season with two home games played after the playoffs were officially out of reach negatively impacted my season ticket investment once again. But this is not another end-of-season where the fan base wonders whether the GM and/or the coach will be fired (like in Cleveland) as co-owner Terry Pegula said last week that both GM Doug Whaley and Rex Ryan would be back next season. It's the right decision but I hope that he demands some changes on the defensive side of the ball which performed surprisingly poorly. Gone will be Mario Williams who seems to have lost a step and spent much of the season complaining about schemes and late play calls. Also gone will be his $16 million salary and cap hit which could come in handy when the team tries to re-sign free agent linebacker Nigel Bradham. Roster spots are valuable so maybe its time to draft a kicker who can make field goals and converts and deliver deep kick-offs as the Bills are the only NFL team to carry a kick-off specialist. Dan Carpenter had his problems with the league's new 32 yard converts this season, including missing another one yesterday.

Over the holidays, we watched some of the sports docu-drama about the Bills 4 consecutive Superbowl losses, called "The Four Falls of Buffalo". Bruce Smith and Thurman Thomas were seated on a couch watching footage from the 4 games and re-living the pain of losing each of them. Aside from the missed field goal in Tampa, Thomas's fumble early in the second half of the January, 1994 game against Dallas was probably the most deflating moment in any of the 4 games. The film included much discussion of the damage to the psyche of the team and its fan base after losing 4 straight championship games with some wondering if it was actually worse to get to the big game that many times, only to lose each one, than it would have been not to go at all. I reject this completely. As tough as it was, I look at it this way: the very best result that an NFL team can aspire to each season is to win the Superbowl. Only one team can do this but, surely, the next best result would be to lose the Superbowl. Would I have wished that the Bills had lost one or more of the AFC Championship games they won to spare me the pain of a Superbowl loss? No. The lead-up to the big game and the chance to finally win one (as the losses from previous years piled up) was well worth it. The only regret I have is that the Superbowl parties I hosted over those years generally took on a less-than-festive tone as the games became out of reach. Attendance suffered and, by the 4th one, I watched alone. After 16 seasons out of the playoffs, losing a Superbowl probably sounds like a fantasy Bills fans would be overjoyed to experience.

I spent a week in Muskoka over the holidays and, although the snow coverage was good and the skiing was decent by the middle of last week, the lake, as of Sunday morning, remained open (although with a minus 20 night last night, it may well be frozen as I write this on Monday morning in north Toronto). It seemed surreal to be hanging up our ski boots while watching the waves lap against the dock. The sheltered bays were covered with a layer of ice just thick enough to support a 42 pound dog who (probably unknowingly) risked her life multiple times by venturing out on it. Next time we go up, I hope we can stop worrying about that.

The NFL playoffs begin on the weekend. The two AFC road teams, Kansas City and Pittsburgh will likely be favoured when they travel to Houston and Cincinnati respectively. My dark horse team this year? Minnesota. I may post during the playoffs and/or the Superbowl. In the meantime, enjoy the winter.