Raiders 38, Bills 24

After taking a one point lead into halftime yesterday in Oakland, the Bills came out of the gate in third quarter, inspired by another long run from scrimmage by LeSean McCoy, and promptly scored two touchdowns to take what looked like a comfortable 24-9 lead. The Raiders, whose playoff drought dates back to 2002 when they went to the Superbowl and lost to Tampa Bay, were 0 for the last 72 times they found themselves trailing by 15 or more points. Make that 1 for 72 now as they roared back with 29 unanswered points in less than 12 minutes of play. And the Bills last won in Oakland in 1966.

Tied with the Patriots at 10-2, the Raiders are in a strong position to earn a first round bye in the AFC playoffs, if not home field advantage throughout. Raider fans have waited a long time for this but Bills fans have three years on them and New Era Field doesn't have any of its upper deck sections covered with tight fitting tarps because the seats can't be sold. The stadium in Oakland is old and decrepit but the sightlines from those tarped off sections look ok and it seems surprising to me that, in this very successful season, the team wouldn't open them up for sale. The Raiders may well end up in Las Vegas before long and the league apparently has a hate on for its owner, Mark Davis. In Oakland, success on the field isn't matched by overall franchise success. But the most dedicated members of Raider Nation still stand above any other fan base in terms of the elaborate make-up and costumes they don on Sundays at the Black Hole. Every NFL highlight package on weeks when the Raiders play at home includes a look at some of them. For these guys, it's Halloween eight times every year.

As for the Bills, hopes for an end to the playoff drought are all but gone. Winning out to finish 10-6 probably won't get it done as it looks to me like both wildcard teams will come from the AFC West which has four strong teams this year. One again, Bills fans are faced with December home games where the team is playing for next year's roster positions, for pride or perhaps to play a spoiler role as they did last year against the Jets in week 17. The Steelers come to Orchard Park next week to kick off three straight December home games. Then the winless Cleveland Browns come in on December 18th and the Dophins, who lost badly yesterday, come in on Christmas Eve. Merry Christmas.

I keep hoping - yearning, to use a Seinfeld reference - for Tyrod Taylor to show that he is a proficient NFL passer but he keeps letting me down. Until yesterday, he had been very solid at ball protection and his scrambling ability is as good or better than any quarterback in the league but his passing skills just aren't there and yesterday was another good example as he missed several open receivers and couldn't get the right touch on some short passes either. I'm afraid that the Bills will have to look once again to the draft to try to nail down the most important position in the game. Jim Kelly retired 20 years ago and the team is still looking for his replacement.

The College football four-team playoff participants were announced yesterday: Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Washington. I think that it's only a matter of time before the playoff is expanded to eight teams as at least two of the teams left out of the tournament this year (Michigan and Penn State, both from the Big Ten) are at least as good as Washington. In an eight team playoff, the 9th and 10th best teams will always make similar arguments but still....

I've left politics alone on this blog since the US election and I intend to stick with that approach. However, rather than submitting my usual monthly sports column for True North Perspective, I decided to write an article on the Electoral College for December's issue. You can read it here.

Bills 28, Jaguars 21

I have no idea if Jim Harbaugh and Gus Bradley are friends but they might consider having lunch this week to commiserate on their tough losses this past weekend. Both coaches feel, quite rightly, that poor officiating cost their teams games. Harbaugh, whose Michigan Wolverines dropped an overtime game in Columbus to the Ohio State Buckeyes, focused on the officiating in his post-game press conference, pointing out three specific calls which went against his team - any of which he says would have changed the outcome of the game. The three calls included two pass interference incidents - one called against a Michigan player on what Harbaugh says was an uncatchable ball and another non-call involving a Michigan receiver who was clearly interfered with. The third involved a ball spot on a fourth down run in the second overtime by Buckeyes quarterback JT Barrett on which Harbaugh says his view from the sideline clearly indicated that he was 6 inches short. Even after a review, Ohio State was awarded a first down. The right call would have ended the game and sent the Wolverines into the playoff. Harbaugh didn't mention the turnovers his team committed, any of which would have been crucial to the outcome of the game, had they not occurred. So, Michigan will play in some bowl game or other in a few weeks.

Yesterday in Orchard Park, the Jacksonville Jaguars looked like the team that wanted the game more than the Bills did, especially in the first half. The Jaguars defense in particular looked well prepared as they held the Bills and their league-leading power running attack in check through 30 minutes. But LeSean McCoy found the endzone just before halftime and again on a 75 yard run to open the third quarter and the Bills held on to win a game in which they were outplayed. But Jaguars coach Gus Bradley also pointed to three bad calls against his team which he felt cost them the game. But Bradley, whose record as Jags head coach now stands at 14-45, should also look in the mirror when he reflects on the game as he failed to call a time-out before the play clock expired on a critical fourth down play near the end of the game. The Jags took a five yard penalty on the play then came up short, turned the ball over on downs and let the Bills run out the clock. The Jaguars look to be a decent team but, at 2-9, are set to have another high draft pick in April. I've said it before but Doug Marrone really hit the jackpot two years ago when he resigned as Bills head coach and ended up settling for one of the least prestigious coaching positions in the NFL: offensive line coach with the Jaguars.

There were more than 110,000 fans at the Horseshoe in Columbus on Saturday. A few hours drive away, in Hamilton, Ontario, there were considerably fewer than 10,000 fans on hand at Tim Horton's Field for the Vanier Cup. Some estimates were that the actual attendance was not much more than 5,000 but those who did bother to show up were treated to a very entertaining and close game won by the Laval Rouge et Or 31-26 over the Calgary Dinosaurs.

Despite the ongoing attendance issues with Canadian football in southern Ontario, both championship games on the weekend were excellent, including the Grey Cup game, most of which I did watch while checking in on the Jets / Patriots game and later the Chiefs / Broncos. The stands at BMO Field looked fully occupied from what I could see and the teams served up an overtime thriller won by 41 year-old Henry Burris and the Ottawa Redblacks. After plenty of unfortunate negative PR leading up to the game, including a pizza joint in Hamilton offering two tickets to the game with the order of a large pizza, the CFL always seems to redeem itself on Grey Cup day with a compelling, entertaining and close game. I wonder if the league is looking for a way to gracefully exit the Toronto market.

The Bills make their third (and final, except for a possible playoff game) trip to the west coast next Sunday to face the 9-2 Raiders at the Black Hole. Maybe the Raiders will be looking ahead to their game four days later at Kansas City.

Bills 16, Bengals 12

I don't think that Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor threw the ball down field even once during yesterday's game in Cincinnati. It felt infuriating to me at times - partly because the Bills passing attack just wasn't there yesterday and partly because watching on TV, the down field coverage can't be seen. But I kept wanting him to throw it deep anyway. Surely one receiver can get open, I thought. Give one of them a chance to make a play, I said to myself as the wind and snow pelted against the cottage windows. But, in keeping with his instinct to protect the ball, Taylor threw only short passes, did plenty of scrambling and relied on a formidable running game and his team's defense which played very well yesterday, especially in the second half.

The Bills ran for 183 yards yesterday while Taylor's passing statistics looked weak at 19 for 27 for 159 yards and one interception. The interception was a poor decision to be sure but hardly disastrous as it gave the Bengals the ball at their own one yard line. The defense held the Bengals to 93 yards rushing and 300 yards in total. It was a hard-fought but exceedingly frustrating game to watch as the ineptitude of the Bills passing game persisted. But a win is a win and a loss would have almost ended any playoff hopes the team has, however slim they might be.

I have no data to back this up but it feels like there have been more injuries in the league this year than in previous years. Yesterday was no exception as Cincinnati star receiver AJ Green went down with a hamstring on the first series and is likely gone for the season. Then, Bills receiver Robert Woods went out with a knee and LeSean McCoy left the game with a dislocated thumb. Add those injuries to the loss of centre Eric Wood two weeks ago, not to mention Sammy Watkins who really hasn't played this year at all with an ailing foot. The injury to the Panthers Luke Kuechly on Thursday night drew attention as his teary reaction to another concussion brought the issue of head injuries to the surface once again.

Now at 5-5, the Bills have what looks to be an easy game next week against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars in Orchard Park before heading to Oakland the following week to face the resurgent Raiders. Then, 3 straight home games against the Steelers, Browns and Dolphins before closing out the season at the Meadowlands against the Jets. 10-6 usually gets you in to the playoffs. Its a steep hill to climb but not out of the question.

Besides the Bills game next weekend, there are three other games I will be watching - two to be played on Canadian soil and the other south of the border. In chronological order, the first is on Saturday at noon and features the No.3 ranked Michigan Wolverines facing the No.2 Ohio State Buckeyes at the Horseshoe in Columbus. The annual end-of-season rivalry game has more riding on it this year than it has since probably 2003. Michigan has not won in Columbus since 2000. The winner is guaranteed a spot in the 4 team college football playoff and the loser will likely miss out.

Next up is the Vanier Cup, the Canadian University football championship game, at Tim Horton's Field in Hamilton on Saturday at 1pm between the Laval Rouge et Or and the Calgary Dinosaurs. And, on Sunday the 104th Grey Cup kicks off at 6.30pm at BMO Field in Toronto between the Ottawa Redblacks and the Calgary Stampeders. Canadian football fans in Calgary have two good reasons to travel to southern Ontario next weekend. I don't think that they will need to worry about getting tickets for either game.



 

Seahawks 31, Bills 25

Rex Ryan was relatively calm in his post-game press conference in Seattle. Bills beat reporters, among others, were expecting him be breathing fire after a heartbreaking down-to-the-last-play loss in the the Bills first trip to the Pacific Northwest since 2004. If it were a baseball game, Ryan surely would have been ejected by referee Walt Anderson just before halftime after he expressed his outrage to him at a non-call on Seattle cornerback Richard Sherman. Sherman was as clearly offside as a player could be on a Dan Carpenter field goal attempt with three seconds left in the half. Officials flagged the offside but no further penalty was called on Sherman who continued into the backfield and slammed into Carpenter's plant leg and knocked him to the ground.

When a punter is fouled as or after he punts, there are two types of penalties which can be called: "running into the kicker" which is a five yard penalty or "roughing the kicker", a personal foul which carries a 15 yard penalty. It seemed clear to me that, notwithstanding Carpenter's embellishment of his leg injury, a personal foul should have been called. Then, the officials botched the lead-up to Carpenter's actual kick attempt, finally placing the ball on the field with less than five seconds remaining on the play clock. After the delay of game penalty, Carpenter missed the kick. Ryan was understandably livid in the moment but, presumably having learned how to avoid fines from the league office for comments on officiating, simply said that he would have made a different call on the Sherman play. He was also obviously proud of how his team competed in the game - and rightfully so.

Ryan was asked if he thought that last night's game was Tyrod Taylor's best one in a Bills uniform. He replied by saying that Taylor plays well every game and that he isn't sure why this opinion isn't more widely shared. Despite throwing one needless and careless interception (only the Bills 5th turnover through nine games), Taylor demonstrated his usual elusiveness in the pocket and his consistent ball protection instinct but he also had a pretty good night throwing the ball, following two games where he did not. The Bills defence was also solid in the second half after a shaky first 30 minutes. And, the game was theirs to win on the last series and the last play where Taylor's pass sailed through the endzone. Was Robert Woods held on that last play? Didn't look like it to me but a defensive holding or pass interference call on the play would have gone a long way to righting the officiating wrong from the end of the first half.  

With nine games down and seven to go, the Bills probably have to win six of them to have a realistic shot a wildcard spot. With road games in Cincinnati and Oakland and a home date with the Steelers on the schedule, they have a tough road. At 4-5, the Bills look to be close to a lock to extend the NFL's longest playoff drought which dates back to the Music City Miracle which followed the 1999 season.

Before the game, I looked up the history of the Bills playing on Monday night. With a couple of exceptions, it isn't pretty. The most memorable game for me was the October, 2007 game against Dallas where the heavily favoured Cowboys eked out a 25-24 win after a successful onside kick and a 53 yard field goal as time ran out. The Bills are 2-9 in their last 11 Monday night games.

The history of Monday Night Football is also fascinating. Thanks almost entirely to a man named Roone Arledge who convinced his skeptical bosses at ABC (CBS and NBC had passed on the idea, thinking that football fans would not watch a game on a Monday night) to take a chance on it in 1970. Arledge introduced many innovative ideas to the prime time broadcast, including the use of multiple cameras and celebrity guest appearances in the broadcast booth, the most famous of which was Howard Cosell's 1974 interview with John Lennon. Six years later, Cosell announced, during a live broadcast of Monday Night Football, that Lennon was dead, making ABC the first network to break the story.

To my American friends, I wish you a successful election today. NFL fans in southern California will be paying close attention to a proposition on the ballot in the San Diego area where voters will choose whether or not to allocate tax dollars for a new stadium for the Chargers. Only in America.  

Patriots 41, Bills 25

Reports of declining NFL television ratings were easy to dismiss or explain away during the first couple of weeks of the season but, now at the halfway mark, the lower numbers are both consistent and significant. Many theories abound as to why.

Here are the facts: Overall, NFL television viewership in 2016 is down 12% from a year ago. Prime time games are suffering much more than Sunday afternoon broadcasts with Thursday night viewership down 18%, Sunday night games down 19% and Monday Night Football off a quite remarkable 24%.

A poll was conducted recently for Seaton Hall University which asked respondents why they were watching less NFL on television. Here are some of the reasons respondents provided and some other theories which have been proposed to explain the sudden and relatively steep drop in the number of Americans watching NFL games on television:

1. The Presidential election: It is common for sports television viewership to decline modestly in election years. This year, (and the Trump campaign complained about this when the debate schedule was released) two of the three debates between the two main candidates took place at the same time as NFL prime time broadcasts and this year's debates attracted the highest viewership since 1980.

2. Head Injuries: Maybe the long list of stories about the shattered lives of some former NFL players who suffered repeated head trauma during their playing days has finally driven some viewers away from the sport.

3. Domestic Violence: The NFL's response over the past few years to incidents of domestic abuse on the part of  players has generally been slow and muted and has added to the list of bad news stories about the league.

4. Over-saturation: With the move to a full schedule of Thursday night games a few years ago, the NFL decided that it had to own not one, not two but three prime time television nights each week. I can remember when Monday Night football was the only prime time football game every week and there was something special about it. Not to mention that this season's prime time game slate has featured neither compelling story lines nor particularly competitive games.

5. Cord cutters watching in sports bars: the cable industry can rhyme off the statistics (but they don't want to) of its declining traditional customer base but maybe some of us who have ditched cable in favour of a combination of OTA and Netflix are still watching football at our friends places, in sports bars or elsewhere. It's nearly impossible to measure this.

6. National anthem protests: This is perhaps the most interesting one and a bit of mystery too as the national anthem is generally not part of the broadcast of an NFL game (except for the Superbowl). If the fact that some players are not standing during the anthem (or making other gestures to support the protest idea started by 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick) has caused some viewers to tune out, then either those viewers were never very serious fans or they need to grow thicker skins.

The fact remains that, even with significantly lower ratings, nothing can touch the NFL in terms of delivering eyeballs to television advertisers. Take a massively large number and reduce it by 12% and you've still got a very big number. The real question is whether the current decline in viewership is the new normal or if it will rebound as the season progresses and in future years.

I actually watched very little of the Bills game yesterday. CTV decided that what I really wanted to watch at 1pm was the entire scoreless overtime period of the London game between Washington and the Bengals which caused me to miss most of the first quarter. Then, as the Patriots seemed to be toying with the Bills, I lost interest and spent more time cutting firewood than I did watching the debacle.

Brady threw for 315 yards and 4 touchdowns - a typical game in Buffalo for him. With the Bills depleted offensive line-up, the game was going to come down to whether the defence could stop Brady. They couldn't. They never have been able to and there was no reason to think that it would start yesterday. At 7-1, the Patriots are the clear favourites to win it all again this year. Brady and Belichick will move on some day but it seems clear that the Bills will not realize any meaningful success until they do.

Up next: Monday Night Football at Seattle the night before the election. As a cord-cutter, I will have to find a place to watch it as ESPN is not an OTA broadcaster where I live.

      

Dolphins 28, Bils 25

Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi joined some elite company yesterday in South Florida as he gained over 200 yards on the ground for the second consecutive game. Only three other players in NFL history have ever accomplished this: OJ Simpson who did it twice for the Bills in the 1970s, Houston Oilers great Earl Campbell in 1980 and the Dophins Ricky Williams in 2003. Ajayi, who was born to Nigerian parents in London, England and moved to the US at age 7, played his college football at Boise State and was the 149th overall pick by the Dolphins in the 2015 draft. He was left off the roster for the Dolphins first game of this season at Seattle for disciplinary reasons (in hockey, it's called being a "healthy scratch") but has obviously become a critical part of the offense, taking some pressure off the persistently mediocre quarterback Ryan Tanehill and saving, for now, prospects for the Dolphins season after a 1-4 start.

Now the Bills know what it feels like to have a team run at will against them. When a defence knows that the run is coming but still can't stop it, two things happen: it slowly but surely breaks the spirit of the defence and then it opens up opportunities in the passing game. That's what happened yesterday to the Bills after doing much the same to their opponents over the course of their four game winning streak. They made the score look close with a late touchdown and two point conversion before trying an unsuccessful onside kick with 13 seconds left.

The Patriots keep on rolling, with a win in Pittsburgh yesterday to move to 6-1, with their only loss coming at the hands of the Bills. They make their annual trip to Orchard Park next week. With a win yesterday, the Bills would have pushed their record to 5-2 with this week's game representing a chance to move into first place in the AFC East, tied with the Patriots but holding the tie-breaker having beaten them twice. But, at 4-3, even with a win on Sunday, which seems unlikely, a home playoff game remains a pipe dream in Buffalo as these go only to division winners. The Patriots are early 5 to 7 point favourites on most lines and I look for that line to creep up as the week goes on and the state of some key Bills injuries come into focus.

I have a prediction for what we might see on the evening of November 8th between 10 and 11pm. Hillary Clinton will have won a landslide victory in the Presidential election, at least in terms of the Electoral College results, winning by 9 points over Donald Trump in the national popular vote. The protocol would then require that he address his supporters and the nation before Clinton delivers her victory speech. Protocol would also require that one of the first things that he says in his concession speech would be to very briefly recount a phone call which he had a few minutes earlier.

I think that he will do that but when it comes time to say who he had just spoken with on the phone, there will be a twist. Here's what I think he will say: "I just got off the phone with.......... Ann Coulter" - insert applause here - "and she told me to keep fighting this election and not concede until we have exhausted all possible fraud investigations, court challenges and vote recounts." Then, he will offer some misogynous commentary on her physical appearance (still pretty good but past her best days etc). And, with that, he will not concede - at least not on election night.

Coulter's recent book, "In Trump We Trust" sets out all of the great planks in his policy platform and, on her website, she explains that the only policy detail that he has not provided in the campaign is "which company will supply rebar for the wall".  

Ok, back to the Bills. With the Patriots coming up next, followed by a trip to Seattle for a night-before-the-election appearance on Monday Night Football on November 7th, a wildcard playoff spot will look even more difficult to achieve at 4-5 as they enter their bye week.

Bills 45, 49ers 16

Colin Kaepernick sports a large afro hairstyle and when he jogged out of the tunnel from the locker room to take the field yesterday in Orchard Park, without his helmet on, it seemed like he wanted everyone in the stadium to notice him. There was some booing and a few jeers of "traitor" with one fan near us who favoured the term "eat shit Kaepernick" which he repeated throughout the game. Just as the anthem was about to start, a cheer of "USA, USA" gained momentum but was quickly drowned out by the Star Spangled Banner singer. Kaepernick and two teammates kneeled during the anthem and several more 49ers players stood with their right fists raised and clenched in the style of the Black Panther movement which the world came to know during the 1968 Mexico City Olympics. All Bills players stood in a line on their sideline during the anthem.

Kaepernick's form of protest has prompted a backlash among some football fans and others. After the game yesterday, he explained his position this way: "I don't understand what's un-American about fighting for liberty and justice for everybody, for the equality that this country stands for. I see it as very patriotic and American." I have read reports this morning of t-shirts for sale outside New Era Field yesterday with Kaepernick's image in the cross-hairs of a gun scope and beer coolers with an image of Kaepernick and the words "stand up and shut up". I didn't see any of that myself. Inside the stadium and after the game began, what I saw was a quarterback in his first start of the season who showed only a fraction of the kind of player he was in 2012 when he led his team to the Superbowl.

The Bills ran for 312 yards yesterday (their best running performance since 1992) and, as was reported on Twitter by Football Perspective, they have racked up 847 yards over the past four weeks, marking the highest total for any team in weeks 3 through 6 in the NFL since 1981 and the 5th most since 1970. Most football coaches will say that, if given the choice, they would almost always choose to run the ball; it's more conservative, less likely to lead to turnovers, more likely to keep the game clock running and, when successful, is quite demoralizing for the opposing defense. Marv Levy always said that to win in the NFL, a team need only do two things: run the ball and stop the run. The Bills obviously accomplished the running part yesterday and, while allowing Kaepernick to rush for team leading 66 yards on the day, the defense held the 49ers running backs to only 67 yards on the ground.

49ers coach Chip Kelly favours a "hurry-up" type of offense with either no huddles between plays or very brief huddles. The strategy is meant to tire out the defense and limit its ability to substitute in changing down and distance situations. The Bills defense seemed well prepared for this and, until the game was well in hand, their offense frequently used the same strategy yesterday. And they were able to run the ball at will with strong offensive line play and the the brilliance of LeSean McCoy. It was a dominating performance which allowed us to leave the stadium early and beat the traffic. I was home just after 6.30pm.

Thankfully, the third and final Presidential debate takes place on Wednesday at UNLV. Fox News Chris Wallace will be the moderator. At least Alec Baldwin will be able to get one more guest spot on SNL from it and possibly more, depending on how the final three weeks of the campaign play out. But, if Trump goes away after his expected landslide defeat, Baldwin's run will end after November 8th. Don't bet on it though. Baldwin should keep his Saturday night calendar clear for some time to come as I don't think Trump will accept defeat graciously - if at all.