Panthers 9, Bills 3

It was a perfectly scripted ending for Sean McDermott. Returning to Charlotte after six years as the Panthers Defensive Coordinator, the Bills new head coach lead his team through a grinding defensive battle and a last-minute win on a spectacular catch by rookie wideout Kay Jones who lept high in the air at the goal line, grabbed Tyrod Taylor's pass and rolled untouched into the endzone. Bills upset the heavily favoured Panthers 10-9.

Except Jones couldn't make the catch and the Bills have now fallen from first place in the AFC East. It was a fun ride for the one week it lasted. The silver lining was obviously the defence which kept Cam Newton out of the endzone for four quarters. Holding a team to 9 points should and almost always is enough to win in the NFL but the Bills weakness on the offensive side of the ball was glaring. The Panthers game planned very well for LeSean McCoy who was unable to move the ball on the ground at all. The passing game wasn't able to step up until later in the second half and, although they almost pulled it out, the Bills didn't come close to the endzone either except on their final play.

This was a frustrating game to watch as a Bills fan but for NFL fans without a rooting interest, it must have been excruciating. A defensive battle with only four field goals isn't going to do much for the league's sagging ratings, especially on a day without many close games to switch to in the 1pm line-up.

Comparing yesterday's Bills game to Saturday's Toronto Argonaut victory over the Edmonton Eskimos is a little like comparing apples to kiwi fruit but I'll give it a go anyway. Played before a gathering of just over 13,000 at BMO Field (which, laughably, is one of the biggest home crowds the Argos have drawn this season in a stadium with a football capacity of about 33,000), the home side beat the favoured Eskimos 34-26 in a game which featured 46 first downs and more than 800 yards of offence. I watched most of the second half with my dad, a life-long Argonaut fan who hasn't been to a game since 1978. The CFL still generates surprisingly decent national television ratings despite high levels of apathy in Canada's largest city. Regardless of its many challenges, the CFL's on-field product is almost always entertaining and Saturday's game was a great example of that.

The CFL made news last week by announcing an end to padded practices with contact during the regular season. The league obviously knew which coaches would support the move and which ones likely wouldn't as BC Lions head coach Wally Buono said that it was about time for such a move and Eskimos head coach Jason Maas questioned the decision and said that he learned of it only through the media. The only valid criticism I've heard of the decision is from junior and high school football coaches in Canada who worry that the pressure from parents to match the policy in their own leagues may develop a cohort of younger players who have not learned how to make or receive a proper football hit until they find themselves in game situations. This may lead to more injuries in the end, not less, they say. We'll see. If the policy serves to slow the decline in participation rates among young athletes, then it probably makes sense. I doubt that it will really give parents any more comfort when they decide which sports to sign their children up for.

The Bills have a tough test upcoming in week 3 as the Denver Broncos, coming off an impressive win against Dallas yesterday, come to Orchard Park. Then the team has two road games and a bye week before their next home game on October 22nd.

Bills 21, Jets 12

The headline in the Chicago Tribune, which reads "Hurricane Irma Delays NFL's TV Ratings", probably portends more bad news for the NFL in the form of another season of declining fan interest which will manifest itself in lower television viewership, smaller in-stadium crowds and the corresponding list of excuses from the league office. The fact that the offices where NFL television ratings are compiled and reported is - or was - in Tampa, which was evacuated ahead of the storm, will only delay the inevitable.

Last year it was the election. This year, NFL spin doctors suggest, it's the weather. Ratings for The Weather Network are way up as some football fans (even those in areas not impacted by the hurricanes) apparently are now more interested in the weather than in whatever the NFL has to offer for their viewing pleasure. What will the league offer up as an explanation for the ratings drop once the hurricane season is over? Will there be another major news story which they can claim has drawn attention away from their product? Anything, I guess, to not address the fundamental issue of declining participation in junior football programs and the alarming number of high schools across America (and Canada too) which have scrapped their football programs due to player/student safety concerns.

The New England Patriots have won the Superbowl in two of the past three seasons (the 2014 and 2016 seasons). The winner of the big game from the previous year earns the right to host the league's opening regular season game on the Thursday night of Week 1, three days before the rest of the teams open their schedules. On that opening Thursday in 2015, the Patriots game was watched by an average audience of 27.4 million viewers. Two years later, average viewership for last week's game dropped to 21.8 million. A year ago, the Denver Broncos (the 2015 Superbowl winner) opening Thursday home game drew an average of 25.2 million. See a pattern here? Make no mistake: the NFL is still a ratings juggernaut and no other sports league or television program even comes close to the numbers that the NFL can draw but the downward trajectory is clear and I am confident is saying that the Golden Age of Football is now behind us. Sure, I'll still watch on television and I'll still make the pilgrimage to Orchard Park once or twice each season (or more if the Bills are competitive in December) but I am less confident now that I will still be doing so 20 or 30 years from now than I would have been five years ago.

But the Bills won in Week 1 and I still feel good about that. I like the attitude and demeanor of the new head coach Sean McDermott. I like the defence, the offensive line and the running game. I remain concerned about the quarterback and the lack of big play receivers which the team will need to get back into games where they fall behind. Like they probably will in next week's trip to Carolina.

I saw only a bit of the Jets game as I was focused mainly on rebuilding our pump house after we replaced our entire water system this summer at the cottage. I watched part of the Patriots game on Thursday night and I was pleased to see the Chiefs dominate in the 4th quarter and hand them a home loss. With the Dolphins idle due to the hurricane, the Bills find themselves alone in first place in the AFC East. This will likely only be a week-long phenomenon but I like the look of the standings in the newspaper right now.

If the Bills can pull out a road win in Week 2, then prospects for the 2017 season will definitely seem brighter in what still feels like a rebuilding year. We are rebuilding our pump house and the Bills are rebuilding for the future. I am confident that our pump house will last 30 years or more. The NFL will still be around in 30 years too but it could like quite different that it does now.

 

Jets 30, Bills 10

I don't see Terry Pegula - or Kim for that matter, as they exist as a team - as a sports team owner like a Harold Ballard or even a Ralph Wilson with the bottom line as the primary objective, only paying attention to competitive success in order to help with the bottom line. I have no way of knowing this for sure but it seems that the Pegulas want to do right by the long-suffering football fans of Western New York, Eastern Pennsylvania and Southern Ontario. I just don't think they have surrounded themselves with the right people to help them do it - at least not yet. As a Leaf fan, I pay very little attention to the Buffalo Sabres but if we can look to them as an example of Pegula ownership over the somewhat longer term, Bills fans are in for more disappointments ahead.

Rex Ryan wasn't fired the day after the Miami game presumably because it was Christmas Day so the Pegulas waited until Tuesday the 27th to show him and his brother the door. They also installed Anthony Lynn as interim head coach and told him that Tyrod Taylor wouldn't play in the final game of the season against the Jets on account of a provision in his contract which would have made the Bills liable for Taylor's $27.5 million notional salary for next season had he suffered an in-game injury which would have prevented him from passing his team physical in March. Such is the world of NFL contracts and these are the kinds of decisions they can lead to.

As first glance, it all went bad quite quickly after the team lost in overtime to the playoff bound Dolphins but the season's end was really the second half collapse in Oakland after leading in that game 24-9. In retrospect, beating Cleveland a couple of weeks later only lessened their draft position. Yesterday's loss improved it but it looks like Doug Whaley will be calling the shots on the 2017 draft once again, in addition to heading up the search for a new head coach. The Buffalo media seems to think that they will give the job to Anthony Lynn who, until this past September, had advanced only as far as running backs coach before being named the team's offensive coordinator. In fairness to Lynn, the Bills have featured the league's number one running attack over the past two years and the team's offence showed considerable improvement overall after he took over as coordinator. If he is the successful candidate, Anthony Lynn will be the first permanent (rather than interim) black head coach in Bills history. At this point, I honestly can't think of anyone else who would be better suited to the Bills top job, at least among those who would consider taking it.

The NFL playoffs begin on the weekend with four games. The Dophins are in tough as they travel to Pittsburgh to face Le'Veon Bell and Ben Roethlisberger in the cold. The other AFC game sees the Houston Texans playing host to Oakland, a team whose hopes appear to have been dashed by not one but two quarterback injuries. In the NFC, the Seahwaks play Detroit in the Pacific Northwest and the Giants travel to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to face the red hot Packers. All four games could be interesting and, for Bills fans, they come without the stress of having a clear rooting interest. I am thankful for that.





  

Dolphins 34, Bills 31 (OT)

I've never been big on questioning coaching decisions. Why does he play that defenceman on power plays? Why didn't he take that pitcher out after the last inning? Why are they running the ball on third down and seven? I just assume that coaches in professional sports know far more than me about the factors they need to to consider when making the decisions they make - and they obviously do. But questioning coaching decisions in the prerogative of fans and especially those who pay their hard-earned after tax money to buy tickets to games. I just don't happen to do it very much. But I certainly did it once on Christmas Eve.

With four minutes remaining in the overtime period of Saturday's game in Orchard Park with the Bills facing a fourth down and three, Rex Ryan decided to punt the ball. Had the game been a 10-10 defensive struggle, his hope that his defence would get a stop and get the ball back with enough time to score in a game they had to win to stay alive might have been realistic. But this was a 31-31 game where both offences were running in high gear for the whole game - including Buffalo's which set a single game offensive production record with 589 yards from scrimmage. Ryan's post-game claim that "any coach in America would have done the same thing" seemed almost delusional. It is true that if they had gone for the first down on that fourth and three and not made it, the game would have been over. Punting the ball away at that point simply ended the Bills remote playoff chances in a slow and painful way until they allowed Jay Ajayi to rumble for 60 yards against 10 defenders to set up the game winning field goal. Ryan is the head coach and the decision was his to make, he made it and they lost game. That's sports. I guess the real thing I questioned was his claim that he thought that his defence had a better shot at a three and out than his offence did at picking up three yards after posting almost 600 in the game up to that point. Had he chosen to try for the first down and had they not made it, fans would have questioned that decision too. I would like to think that I would not have been among them.

So, the Bills are out of the playoffs for the 17th consecutive season. If they beat the Jets next week, they will finish 8-8 and Rex's record over two seasons will be a yawn inducing 16-16. I think he will be back next year but the real question at this point will be what they do with their quarterback Tyrod Taylor. In a league where contracts are not guaranteed, there are many options. The team has the right, under a contract extension signed during training camp, to retain Taylor in 2017 but at a steep price of $27.5 million. If they decide that they want to go in a different direction (current third stringer Cardale Jones, through free agency or through the draft), then they will just cut him and he's a free agent. If they want to retain him but not at $27.5 million, they could try to re-negotiate the deal or they choose a more creative path which would involve cutting him, letting him see the options available to him in free agency and, assuming that he isn't offered $27.5 million by another team (which seems unlikely), they could themselves sign him as a free agent at a salary more in line with his performance this season. His performance was solid in some respects but his throwing accuracy is still below average for an NFL quarterback and most observers agree that he is not worth $27.5 million to the Bills or to any other team. Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo will be a free agent this off-season.

The Dolphins have now officially made the playoffs as all six AFC teams have been determined going into week 17. In the NFC, the game next Sunday night at Ford Field between Detroit and Green Bay will determine the winner of the NFC North which comes with a home playoff game. The other important game involves Washington which can claim a wildcard spot with a win over the Giants who have nothing to play for. The AFC West could still be won by the Chiefs if they can beat the Chargers and if the Raiders, who suffered a devastating loss of their star quarterback Derek Carr, lose to the Broncos.



    

Bills 33, Browns 13

It feels like we're on a perpetual course of mediocrity as the Bills grind their way to the end of another 8-8 season - or 7-9 or 9-7 - whatever. Its not disastrous like 2-14 where you blow it up and start over but they just can't take it to the next level and be one of the 12 NFL teams which make the playoffs rather than perpetually being one of the 20 that doesn't. What would I do if were Terry Pegula? Tough decision for sure. Except for a few personal items I would purchase.

The Bills are 6-1 against teams with losing records (a week 2 loss to the Jets) and a reciprocal 1-6 against teams with winning records (a win at New England with Brady out) for a nice even record of 7-7. Should Rex Ryan be dismissed with 3 years remaining on his $5 million a year contract? I can see valid arguments on each side but I think I'm coming around to predicting and maybe even reluctantly hoping that they bring him back for one more try. I mean a new coach means a new system, new assistants and, most importantly an admission on the owner's part that he hired the wrong guy. And maybe Rex and Tyrod can somehow find their mojo in year 3. The owner will also have to consider the sentiment of the fan base and I'm not sure how that breaks down. I'm thinking more Bills fans would lean to wanting Rex fired than not but I think it would be close.

How good was that Air Force Reserve Celebration Bowl game, won by the Grambling State Tigers 10-9 over the North Carolina Central Eagles? Well, not that great but it was on channel 7 on my HD antenna on Saturday so, having never heard of this particular bowl game, I googled it. Turns out that the "Celebration Bowl", which has been sponsored by the Air Force Reserve through its first two years, is a game played between the winners of the two NCAA Division 1 athletic conferences which are predominantly comprised of what I gather are known as Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs). The Celebration bowl is the championship game of Black College Football. Its "payout" - an important element of any bowl game - is $1 million per school. The Rose Bowl's payout is $35 million per school.

Then came the New Mexico Bowl which, amazingly, was won by the New Mexico Lobos 23-20 over those pesky Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners. Having spent 5 days exploring, hiking and camping in New Mexico a few years ago, I'm immediately drawn to anything remotely related to or even mentioning New Mexico which was a spectacular place to visit. We stayed in very well maintained State Campgrounds with showers, laundry and free firewood for $8 a night. The mountains, the hiking, the dessert, the cactus, the odd ghost town - were all fantastic but what I loved was that it was vast, remote and sparsely populated. That's also why the US military likes it for various training ranges and whatever else they may or may not do there. Anyway the New Mexico Bowl was not quite as good as New Mexico itself but how many bowl games really are?

Tonight we have the Miami Beach Bowl and tomorrow the Boca Raton Bowl so the excitement just keeps building as we approach the 4 team playoff which has two games set to go on New Year's Eve: the Peach Bowl between No.1 Alabama and No. 4 Washington then the Fiesta Bowl between No. 2 Clemson and No.3 Ohio State. The National Championship is January 9th. This year, including the 3 games which will determine the national champion, there are 44 bowl games. I promise not to review very many more of them.

Next up for the Bills: a Christmas Eve home game on Saturday against their division rivals, the 9-5 Miami Dolphins who will have plenty to play for as they are in the thick of the AFC playoff race. The Dolphins record in Buffalo in December isn't good. Frozen fish squish just fine.







  

Steelers 27, Bills 20

Maybe the Pegulas don't really look forward to December. For the third consecutive year - every December since they acquired the Buffalo Bills - turmoil surrounds their football team. Multiple reports surfaced before yesterday's game that a power struggle was playing out at One Bills Drive between the head coach and the general manager about who should start under centre for the team's final three or four games.

Rex Ryan apparently still believes that Tyrod Taylor is the team's quarterback of the future and should start the remainder of the team's games as long as he's healthy. Doug Whaley wants to see third stringer and 2016 fourth round draft pick Cardale Jones start the team's last three games to see how he does on a big stage, although after the season is lost, as it now is. The reports suggested that Ryan could be gone as early as today (Monday). If there is any truth to this, then it seems to me that Ryan could save his job by coming around on the quarterback issue and agreeing to start Cardale Jones, if he wants to. I just wonder how EJ Manuel must feel this morning. Maybe he's permanently stuck at the two spot in the Bills quarterback depth chart. Ryan has more than $16 million remaining on his five year contract and, unlike the players he coaches, his money is guaranteed.

Yesterday's game was not nearly as close as the score indicates. Taylor and the Bills offense was awful and the defense wasn't much better although they did capitalize on some errant throws by Ben Roethlisberger. I actually saw only the first and fourth quarters as I decided to go out cross-country skiing between 1.30 and 3pm. It was lovely as it will be today with another 15cm having fallen here in Muskoka overnight.

Like many sports fans in southern Ontario, I tuned in to the MLS Championship game on Saturday night. I even watched a bit of the pre-game discussions, mostly among unknown (to me at least) British analysts. Before Saturday, the only soccer games I have ever consciously tuned it for have been World Cup finals or perhaps semi-finals. I don't think I had seen a minute of a TFC game on television but I had heard from many sources that attending a game live makes for a highly enjoyable event. I think I'm even more mystified about the game now than I was last week.

First, the semi-final was a two-game total goal format (I can remember when the CFL did this in its conference finals up to the 1970s) between Toronto and Montreal while the league championship is only a single game. Seems odd. The game itself wasn't particularly interesting to me and I found myself back to the Leaf game in Boston before long. But I did keep switching back and watched quite a bit of it. The game, for me, lacked a sense of urgency that could reasonably be expected for a championship game. TFC had the better chances and I read the next morning that the X Box team didn't register a shot on goal for the entire game, including extra time, injury time and the extra minute or two that the referees let the teams play beyond the injury time.

The basic problem with soccer for most North American sports fans is that it is simply too difficult to score goals. I have no idea what a solution for this might look like. I can remember a few years ago a soccer expert explaining the difference between soccer and the four North American sports this way: he said that North American sports fans want their sports to "explode" while soccer is a game which simply "unfolds". Yes, it unfolds and it can be very pleasing to watch but when the score, after 120 minutes plus injury time, is nil/nil, maybe it needs to explode just a little. Then, almost like a coin toss, the game is decided on penalty kicks because the concept of a sudden-death, "play until someone scores" approach would, apparently, lead to highly defensive play on each side and the game would go on and on and on. One suggestion I can think of is to allow multiple - hey how about unlimited - substitutions during extra time to increase the chances of a goal or, at the very least, a shot on goal. Or just let the game end in a tie. Both teams could then half-heartedly hoist the cup.

The Bills welcome their sorry Lake Erie cousins, the 0-13 Cleveland Browns, this weekend in Orchard Park. It will be one hot ticket. Unfortunately, I have two.

Raiders 38, Bills 24

After taking a one point lead into halftime yesterday in Oakland, the Bills came out of the gate in third quarter, inspired by another long run from scrimmage by LeSean McCoy, and promptly scored two touchdowns to take what looked like a comfortable 24-9 lead. The Raiders, whose playoff drought dates back to 2002 when they went to the Superbowl and lost to Tampa Bay, were 0 for the last 72 times they found themselves trailing by 15 or more points. Make that 1 for 72 now as they roared back with 29 unanswered points in less than 12 minutes of play. And the Bills last won in Oakland in 1966.

Tied with the Patriots at 10-2, the Raiders are in a strong position to earn a first round bye in the AFC playoffs, if not home field advantage throughout. Raider fans have waited a long time for this but Bills fans have three years on them and New Era Field doesn't have any of its upper deck sections covered with tight fitting tarps because the seats can't be sold. The stadium in Oakland is old and decrepit but the sightlines from those tarped off sections look ok and it seems surprising to me that, in this very successful season, the team wouldn't open them up for sale. The Raiders may well end up in Las Vegas before long and the league apparently has a hate on for its owner, Mark Davis. In Oakland, success on the field isn't matched by overall franchise success. But the most dedicated members of Raider Nation still stand above any other fan base in terms of the elaborate make-up and costumes they don on Sundays at the Black Hole. Every NFL highlight package on weeks when the Raiders play at home includes a look at some of them. For these guys, it's Halloween eight times every year.

As for the Bills, hopes for an end to the playoff drought are all but gone. Winning out to finish 10-6 probably won't get it done as it looks to me like both wildcard teams will come from the AFC West which has four strong teams this year. One again, Bills fans are faced with December home games where the team is playing for next year's roster positions, for pride or perhaps to play a spoiler role as they did last year against the Jets in week 17. The Steelers come to Orchard Park next week to kick off three straight December home games. Then the winless Cleveland Browns come in on December 18th and the Dophins, who lost badly yesterday, come in on Christmas Eve. Merry Christmas.

I keep hoping - yearning, to use a Seinfeld reference - for Tyrod Taylor to show that he is a proficient NFL passer but he keeps letting me down. Until yesterday, he had been very solid at ball protection and his scrambling ability is as good or better than any quarterback in the league but his passing skills just aren't there and yesterday was another good example as he missed several open receivers and couldn't get the right touch on some short passes either. I'm afraid that the Bills will have to look once again to the draft to try to nail down the most important position in the game. Jim Kelly retired 20 years ago and the team is still looking for his replacement.

The College football four-team playoff participants were announced yesterday: Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Washington. I think that it's only a matter of time before the playoff is expanded to eight teams as at least two of the teams left out of the tournament this year (Michigan and Penn State, both from the Big Ten) are at least as good as Washington. In an eight team playoff, the 9th and 10th best teams will always make similar arguments but still....

I've left politics alone on this blog since the US election and I intend to stick with that approach. However, rather than submitting my usual monthly sports column for True North Perspective, I decided to write an article on the Electoral College for December's issue. You can read it here.