I wasn't really worried about another halftime retirement by a member of the Bills (ok, there's only been one and I'll move off this theme after today) but if anyone was going to hang 'em up after the first half of yesterday's game at Lambeau Field, it could have been Josh Allen. Things went well for him last week in Minnesota but, as happens with rookie quarterbacks in the NFL, it all turned around yesterday against the Packers. Allen and the Bills offence were anemic at best, gaining only 145 yards on the day. Allen generated three turnovers - two interceptions and one fumble - while completing 16 of 33 attempted passes. Whatever pocket presence he had shown through his first two starts deserted him yesterday as he was was sacked a total of seven times. Green Bay fans will take comfort in a solid defensive effort by their team while Bills fans will lament an offensive performance to be forgotten.
Although the score never got out of hand, the game was not competitively close in any way. At times it felt like I was watching a football practice - a Packers practice, that is - where the Bills were only on the field as a scrimmage opponent posing no threat to actually win the game. The Bills were not quite the Washington Generals playing the role of doormats to the Harlem Globetrotters but at times the two teams didn't look like they play in the same league. I can remember games from the early 1990s which felt like yesterday's game with the Bills calling the practice drills against their own versions of the Generals.
Aaron Rodgers looked sharp yesterday despite a couple of missed throws and he also gave up a rare interception on a ball which was tipped twice. Otherwise, it was clear why he is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. He used yesterday's game as a chance to work on his pocket movement and, on a few plays, he looked like he was testing his mobility and playing a game of something between keep-away and chicken with the ball as he easily avoided the Bills pass rush. Those skills, combined with his arm strength and accuracy, make Rodgers a huge challenge to defend against. He is one of the NFL's biggest stars and one of its most recognizable faces. He has been able to leverage his popularity and clean image into lucrative television commercials with another campaign this season for State Farm insurance and a new gig for Bose noise-cancelling headphones where he is able to tune out Chicago Bears fans as he warms up before a game. The only known less-than-wholesome aspect of Rodgers public persona is the somewhat mysterious rift between him and his immediate family - his siblings and his parents - with whom he has not spoken for at least a couple of years. He doesn't comment publicly on this. His annual football salary is more than $33 million and he recently signed a contract extension which included $100 million guaranteed.
The Bills return home next week to face the Tennessee Titans who beat the Super Bowl champion Eagles in overtime yesterday. The overtime in Nashville was one of the few I can remember where the team which had the ball first (the Eagles) scored a field goal on their opening possession and then went on to lose the game. I still strongly feel that the NFL should adapt a version of the college football overtime format which is more dramatic and also ensures that no games end in ties. There have been two games already this season which have ended in ties and yesterday there could have easily been another two - Tennessee/Philadelphia and Oakland/Cleveland.
The AFC East reverted to the norm yesterday with the Bills, Jets and the previously undefeated Dolphins all losing and the Patriots showing that they are still for real. With a win against the Titans in Orchard Park on Sunday, the Bills can improve to a respectable sounding 2-3 on the season. They then go on the road again for two weeks with theoretically winnable games against Houston and Indianapolis before returning home for a Monday night home game against the Patriots.
Commentary on the Buffalo Bills, politics and whatever else is on my mind
Monday, 1 October 2018
Monday, 24 September 2018
Bills 27, Vikings 6
As the clock wound down toward the end of the first half in yesterday's game at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, I thought that the Bills roster would again be reduced by another halftime retirement. And this week's candidate was going to be Nathan Peterman. Had he followed Vontae Davis' lead from last week, Peterman probably would have made his decision when Josh Allen decided to launch himself up and over Vikings linebacker Anthony Barr on a third and nine run late in the first quarter with his team up 17-0. Peterman could have resigned himself at that point that he wasn't going to see another live snap this season as he watched Allen establish himself as the confident, aggressive, athletic leader the team was hoping he would become when they picked him seventh overall in April.
I guess Peterman wanted to stick around for the second half to see if his team would fold and allow the Vikings back into the game. But that didn't happen as the Bills came close to shutting out the Vikings on their home field for the first time since 1962. By the time the home team did finally score, the game was beyond reach and the Bills went on to earn their first win of the season. And if the team ends the season with three, four, five or perhaps six wins, yesterday's road performance will probably be remembered as the highlight - as the day that Josh Allen showed us why he is the future of the team and the day that the Bills showed the football world that they are in fact better than the Alabama Crimson Tide and maybe not the 32nd best professional football team in North America.
To put yesterday's win in perspective, the betting line at kick-off was Minnesota minus 16.5 which was the largest spread for a September NFL game in five years. The line opened at minus 17 but some Buffalo money late in the week brought it down by a half point. The spread was so large that Proline delisted the game and it actually was not on my $25,000 ticket (which didn't win but came close). Here's an even more remarkable statistic from yesterday's game: the Bills were the biggest underdog to win an NFL game outright since 1995. This game proved the principle we know by rote that any team can win on any given Sunday. Pundits, odds-makers and gamblers also know the principle of a "trap game" and the Vikings, who travel to Los Angeles to play the Rams on Thursday, fell hard into the trap of overlooking what was considered to be the worst team in the league while subconsciously preparing to play the Rams four days later, who some consider to be the best.
I heaped plenty of praise on Tony Romo as a colour commentator last season (his first) so I don't need to go on about it again - except to say that he delivers the most insightful analysis of anyone in that role, ever. Yesterday was no exception. I'm not sure why Buffalo at Minnesota deserved CBS's top broadcast team of Romo and his play-by-play partner Jim Nantz but I'm glad that it did. Romo addressed the issue which emerged after last week's game against the Chargers where head coach Sean McDermott took over the defensive play-calling from coordinator (and former Vikings head coach) Leslie Frazier at halftime. Romo explained that the passing back and forth of play-calling responsibilities between head coaches and coordinators is common-place and depends on who has the best feel for how the game is going. I don't know who called the defensive formations yesterday but they worked extremely well as the Bills were able to pressure Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins all afternoon. The Bills pass rush earned them two key turnovers in the first quarter which they turned into 10 points and never looked back. In his post-game locker room speech, McDermott gave the game ball to Frazier.
The Green Bay Packers lost yesterday in Washington to bring their season record to 1-1-1 with the high-flying Bills traveling to the not-quite-frozen tundra of Lambeau Field on Sunday. I suspect that the Packers will not fall into the same trap as the Vikings did so the Bills will have a much tougher test in week four. But, as we know, and as was proven yesterday, any team can beat any other team on any given Sunday.
I guess Peterman wanted to stick around for the second half to see if his team would fold and allow the Vikings back into the game. But that didn't happen as the Bills came close to shutting out the Vikings on their home field for the first time since 1962. By the time the home team did finally score, the game was beyond reach and the Bills went on to earn their first win of the season. And if the team ends the season with three, four, five or perhaps six wins, yesterday's road performance will probably be remembered as the highlight - as the day that Josh Allen showed us why he is the future of the team and the day that the Bills showed the football world that they are in fact better than the Alabama Crimson Tide and maybe not the 32nd best professional football team in North America.
To put yesterday's win in perspective, the betting line at kick-off was Minnesota minus 16.5 which was the largest spread for a September NFL game in five years. The line opened at minus 17 but some Buffalo money late in the week brought it down by a half point. The spread was so large that Proline delisted the game and it actually was not on my $25,000 ticket (which didn't win but came close). Here's an even more remarkable statistic from yesterday's game: the Bills were the biggest underdog to win an NFL game outright since 1995. This game proved the principle we know by rote that any team can win on any given Sunday. Pundits, odds-makers and gamblers also know the principle of a "trap game" and the Vikings, who travel to Los Angeles to play the Rams on Thursday, fell hard into the trap of overlooking what was considered to be the worst team in the league while subconsciously preparing to play the Rams four days later, who some consider to be the best.
I heaped plenty of praise on Tony Romo as a colour commentator last season (his first) so I don't need to go on about it again - except to say that he delivers the most insightful analysis of anyone in that role, ever. Yesterday was no exception. I'm not sure why Buffalo at Minnesota deserved CBS's top broadcast team of Romo and his play-by-play partner Jim Nantz but I'm glad that it did. Romo addressed the issue which emerged after last week's game against the Chargers where head coach Sean McDermott took over the defensive play-calling from coordinator (and former Vikings head coach) Leslie Frazier at halftime. Romo explained that the passing back and forth of play-calling responsibilities between head coaches and coordinators is common-place and depends on who has the best feel for how the game is going. I don't know who called the defensive formations yesterday but they worked extremely well as the Bills were able to pressure Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins all afternoon. The Bills pass rush earned them two key turnovers in the first quarter which they turned into 10 points and never looked back. In his post-game locker room speech, McDermott gave the game ball to Frazier.
The Green Bay Packers lost yesterday in Washington to bring their season record to 1-1-1 with the high-flying Bills traveling to the not-quite-frozen tundra of Lambeau Field on Sunday. I suspect that the Packers will not fall into the same trap as the Vikings did so the Bills will have a much tougher test in week four. But, as we know, and as was proven yesterday, any team can beat any other team on any given Sunday.
Monday, 17 September 2018
Chargers 31, Bills 20
Vontae Davis, we hardly knew ya!
Have you ever taken a new job and felt like quitting at lunchtime? Maybe the company's prospects look bleak; perhaps the management appears to be less than competent; could be that you're just not feeling that great and you'd rather be somewhere else. Then take inspiration from Davis and just walk out. You can show them that you think nothing of bolting if things aren't going your way. One thing's for sure: you will be remembered for quitting - and for the way you quit - even if you had a decent 10 year career beforehand.
The Buffalo Bills signed the cornerback, entering his 10th NFL season, in February to a one-year contract worth $5 million, with $3.5 million of that guaranteed. He was a healthy scratch from the Bills line-up in week one but was activated for yesterday's home opener in Orchard Park. He played the first half and apparently felt that he was physically unable to perform to the level he wanted. So, he quit. Quit the team, quit the NFL, quit the sport of football. At halftime. Not only did he pull himself from the game but he showered, changed into street clothes and, rather than joining his teammates on the sidelines for the second half, he left the stadium and then issued a self-serving statement to the media. There is no precedent for this as far as I know. So, readers, take inspiration; if things don't go well this morning, when noon rolls around, just walk out.
Back to the $3.5 million in guaranteed money. If I were Bills GM Brandon Beane, I might try to avoid Terry Pegula today at least until I can think of a reasonable explanation for giving away $3.5 million of his oil-fracking money to one player in exchange for one crappy half of football. If his deal had been $5 million for the season with nothing guaranteed, then Davis would have earned one game cheque of about $312,500 - and it seems to me that the Bills would have a solid argument to cut that amount in half. He will earn that single game cheque anyway but he also walks away with the $3.5 million. Move over Jian Ghomeshi, Vontae Davis is this week's hashtag. I have a feeling that Davis won't feel as sorry for himself as Ghomeshi apparently does.
Driving home from the cottage, WGR post-game hosts Mike Schop and the Bulldog were looking for any suggestion of a silver lining from the home opener and they latched on to the performance of quarterback Josh Allen. Despite some notable throwing inaccuracies, they said that Allen looked poised under centre and overall played decently enough to encourage the fan base and give them some optimism for the future. Hardly glowing praise but I am inclined to agree with their assessment in that he certainly does not seem to have the Nathan Peterman "deer in the headlights" look about him and his big arm, when properly harnessed, will serve him well as long as he can improve on locating his passes. He seems to have a good instinct for pocket presence and is deceptively fast when flushed. Maybe his big arm will serve him well when the weather turns cold and windy.
Schop and the Bulldog also made the point that last year's unlikely trip to the playoffs provided Bills ownership and management with the necessary relief for the fan base to justify stripping everything down, having an epically bad season in 2018 and rebuilding most of the roster from the bottom up starting next year. This follows 16 years of posting between 6 and 9 wins - not bad enough to be the worst but not good enough to be a playoff team except for last season when a fortuitous 4th down play on New Year's Eve in Baltimore squeaked them into the tournament as the 6th seed in the AFC.
That analysis makes sense to me. But I still have 7 home games this season to deal with. The appeal will be watching the continuing development of Josh Allen while hoping that the Bills league-worst offensive line doesn't get him killed in the process. With December games against the Jets, Lions and Dolphins on the schedule, if Allen is injured, I for one won't be too interested in watching Nathan Peterman deal with his gremlins.
Have you ever taken a new job and felt like quitting at lunchtime? Maybe the company's prospects look bleak; perhaps the management appears to be less than competent; could be that you're just not feeling that great and you'd rather be somewhere else. Then take inspiration from Davis and just walk out. You can show them that you think nothing of bolting if things aren't going your way. One thing's for sure: you will be remembered for quitting - and for the way you quit - even if you had a decent 10 year career beforehand.
The Buffalo Bills signed the cornerback, entering his 10th NFL season, in February to a one-year contract worth $5 million, with $3.5 million of that guaranteed. He was a healthy scratch from the Bills line-up in week one but was activated for yesterday's home opener in Orchard Park. He played the first half and apparently felt that he was physically unable to perform to the level he wanted. So, he quit. Quit the team, quit the NFL, quit the sport of football. At halftime. Not only did he pull himself from the game but he showered, changed into street clothes and, rather than joining his teammates on the sidelines for the second half, he left the stadium and then issued a self-serving statement to the media. There is no precedent for this as far as I know. So, readers, take inspiration; if things don't go well this morning, when noon rolls around, just walk out.
Back to the $3.5 million in guaranteed money. If I were Bills GM Brandon Beane, I might try to avoid Terry Pegula today at least until I can think of a reasonable explanation for giving away $3.5 million of his oil-fracking money to one player in exchange for one crappy half of football. If his deal had been $5 million for the season with nothing guaranteed, then Davis would have earned one game cheque of about $312,500 - and it seems to me that the Bills would have a solid argument to cut that amount in half. He will earn that single game cheque anyway but he also walks away with the $3.5 million. Move over Jian Ghomeshi, Vontae Davis is this week's hashtag. I have a feeling that Davis won't feel as sorry for himself as Ghomeshi apparently does.
Driving home from the cottage, WGR post-game hosts Mike Schop and the Bulldog were looking for any suggestion of a silver lining from the home opener and they latched on to the performance of quarterback Josh Allen. Despite some notable throwing inaccuracies, they said that Allen looked poised under centre and overall played decently enough to encourage the fan base and give them some optimism for the future. Hardly glowing praise but I am inclined to agree with their assessment in that he certainly does not seem to have the Nathan Peterman "deer in the headlights" look about him and his big arm, when properly harnessed, will serve him well as long as he can improve on locating his passes. He seems to have a good instinct for pocket presence and is deceptively fast when flushed. Maybe his big arm will serve him well when the weather turns cold and windy.
Schop and the Bulldog also made the point that last year's unlikely trip to the playoffs provided Bills ownership and management with the necessary relief for the fan base to justify stripping everything down, having an epically bad season in 2018 and rebuilding most of the roster from the bottom up starting next year. This follows 16 years of posting between 6 and 9 wins - not bad enough to be the worst but not good enough to be a playoff team except for last season when a fortuitous 4th down play on New Year's Eve in Baltimore squeaked them into the tournament as the 6th seed in the AFC.
That analysis makes sense to me. But I still have 7 home games this season to deal with. The appeal will be watching the continuing development of Josh Allen while hoping that the Bills league-worst offensive line doesn't get him killed in the process. With December games against the Jets, Lions and Dolphins on the schedule, if Allen is injured, I for one won't be too interested in watching Nathan Peterman deal with his gremlins.
Sunday, 9 September 2018
Ravens 47, Bills 3
When the NFL first introduced a salary cap in 1994 (set at $34 million per team) it was intended to, among other things, assist in the creation of long-term league-wide team parity. The age of team dynasties in the NFL - think of the Steelers in the 1970s and the 49ers in the 1980s - essentially died with the advent of the cap. The Buffalo Bills were actually one of the last examples of a team which maintained its core group of star players through many seasons, earning four consecutive AFC Championships at one point along the way.
NFL General Managers not only assemble their team's coaching staffs and rosters and oversee armies of college and pro scouts but they must also constantly focus on adherence to the league salary cap which is set at $177 million for the current season. Each team is restricted by that upper limit but also must spend not less than 89% of the cap each year. With NFL player contracts not guaranteed beyond the amount of their signing bonuses, these bonuses - and the way they must be accounted for under the cap - can sometimes haunt teams for years after players who earned them are jettisoned. That's because any unamortized portion of a released or traded player's signing bonus counts against a team's cap in the current year even if the bonus was paid in full when the contract was signed. This is known in the salary cap world as "dead money". It can kill a team - and sometimes quickly.
The Buffalo Bills enter the 2018 season with a staggering and by far the league's biggest dead cap money allocation at $54 million . Think of it this way: Of the $177 million they can spend on player salaries, $54 million is unavailable off the top because of the accumulation of unamortized signing bonuses for players the Bills have traded or released. The league average this year is $11.9 million. Four players - Marcel Dareus, Eric Wood (who retired unexpectedly for medical reasons), Cordy Glenn and Tyrod Taylor - account for about $41 million of it. The team with the second highest dead cap number is the Cowboys with $28.8 million. The New England Patriots have $6.3 million.
The dead cap anvil around Bills GM Brandon Beane's neck - and yesterday's embarrassing rout in Baltimore - are the bad news. And there will probably be much more of it over the next 15 games. The good news is not for this season but for next as the Bills will enjoy the second-highest salary cap space in the league at $76 million. With that, they can sign free agents and lock in some of their other assets. But that's going to happen in 2019. We need to get through 2018 first and season ticket holders like me need to come up with reasons to go to the 8 home games on the schedule. Or reasons for anyone to go.
The game in rainy Baltimore yesterday unfolded as the antithesis of what Bills fans had hoped for. They won the coin toss. Then everything unraveled as fully and completely as it could have. Especially for Nathan Peterman whose second career NFL start was not much better than his first one last season. Josh Allen came in when the score reached 40-0. And I went for a bike ride.
The Los Angeles Chargers, who travel to Orchard Park next week for the Bills home opener, lost their own home opener yesterday so both teams will be looking to avoid an 0-2 start. For the Chargers, it matters a lot as they are expected to compete for a division title in the AFC West. For the Bills, I'll be happy to just see more of Josh Allen under centre and some improvement on the only two things Marv Levy said a team needs to do to win in the NFL: running the ball and stopping the run.
NFL General Managers not only assemble their team's coaching staffs and rosters and oversee armies of college and pro scouts but they must also constantly focus on adherence to the league salary cap which is set at $177 million for the current season. Each team is restricted by that upper limit but also must spend not less than 89% of the cap each year. With NFL player contracts not guaranteed beyond the amount of their signing bonuses, these bonuses - and the way they must be accounted for under the cap - can sometimes haunt teams for years after players who earned them are jettisoned. That's because any unamortized portion of a released or traded player's signing bonus counts against a team's cap in the current year even if the bonus was paid in full when the contract was signed. This is known in the salary cap world as "dead money". It can kill a team - and sometimes quickly.
The Buffalo Bills enter the 2018 season with a staggering and by far the league's biggest dead cap money allocation at $54 million . Think of it this way: Of the $177 million they can spend on player salaries, $54 million is unavailable off the top because of the accumulation of unamortized signing bonuses for players the Bills have traded or released. The league average this year is $11.9 million. Four players - Marcel Dareus, Eric Wood (who retired unexpectedly for medical reasons), Cordy Glenn and Tyrod Taylor - account for about $41 million of it. The team with the second highest dead cap number is the Cowboys with $28.8 million. The New England Patriots have $6.3 million.
The dead cap anvil around Bills GM Brandon Beane's neck - and yesterday's embarrassing rout in Baltimore - are the bad news. And there will probably be much more of it over the next 15 games. The good news is not for this season but for next as the Bills will enjoy the second-highest salary cap space in the league at $76 million. With that, they can sign free agents and lock in some of their other assets. But that's going to happen in 2019. We need to get through 2018 first and season ticket holders like me need to come up with reasons to go to the 8 home games on the schedule. Or reasons for anyone to go.
The game in rainy Baltimore yesterday unfolded as the antithesis of what Bills fans had hoped for. They won the coin toss. Then everything unraveled as fully and completely as it could have. Especially for Nathan Peterman whose second career NFL start was not much better than his first one last season. Josh Allen came in when the score reached 40-0. And I went for a bike ride.
The Los Angeles Chargers, who travel to Orchard Park next week for the Bills home opener, lost their own home opener yesterday so both teams will be looking to avoid an 0-2 start. For the Chargers, it matters a lot as they are expected to compete for a division title in the AFC West. For the Bills, I'll be happy to just see more of Josh Allen under centre and some improvement on the only two things Marv Levy said a team needs to do to win in the NFL: running the ball and stopping the run.
Monday, 5 February 2018
Eagles 41, Patriots 33
My opinion of the NFL sort of went full circle over the weekend. I ended up feeling better about it after the game than I did before kick-off. The game was a best-case-scenario for NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell in terms of entertainment value and competitiveness with outstanding plays made by both teams throughout. The game's only blemish came when Patriots receiver Brandin Cooks was knocked out of the game on a helmet-to-helmet hit from his blind side.
The Eagles and their fans finally have their Lombardi trophy which - and this has always been one of my pet peeves about the NFL - was presented by Goodell not to the team's quarterback, captain or coach but to the team's owner Jeffrey Lurie. The NHL does it right every year when the Commissioner hands the Stanley Cup to the winning team's captain.
I wrote these three paragraphs yesterday afternoon before the game:
Justin Timberlake held a press conference last Thursday - as is the requirement for the headliner of the Superbowl halftime show. Among other things, he confirmed that no special guests would be appearing alongside him for his 20 minute performance. He also made an offer to Patriots coach Bill Belichick that if all of his receivers were injured, Justin was ready to suit up and run routes himself. Very nice. Then came a question about his 3 year-old son perhaps running routes in the NFL some day. Timberlake replied with "he will never play football". He then moved on to a rambling explanation of how he just wants his son to become a great person whether or not he shows interest in the arts or sports or anything else. Goodell was probably doing a slow burn.
There were two newspaper articles this past weekend which, quite honestly, made me seriously question whether or not I will renew my Bills season tickets - a decision I will have to make within the next two or three weeks. I don't recall an NFL player named Rob Kelly who played five seasons at safety for the Saints and the Patriots between 1997 and 2001 before his career ended with a neck injury he suffered in training camp in 2002. On Friday, the New York Times published an article written by Kelly's wife Emily about her husband which I found quite disturbing. Starting in 2009 (seven years after his football career ended), Kelly began to suffer from mood swings, depression and weight loss which eventually qualified him for "total and permanent disability payments" under the NFL's pension plan. She says that her husband certainly recognized that football was a dangerous game but, along with many other former players, she states that "these men chose football, but they didn't choose brain damage". Emily Kelly's husband is now a shadow of his former self and she finds support within a group of wives and partners of former players suffering similar problems. I'm aware that we hear only about those former players who are suffering the long-term effects of a football career. I wonder, of the thousands of players who have suited up in the NFL, what percentage is more-or-less fine ten or more years afterward and what percentage is not.
The Globe and Mail's sports editorial writer Cathal Kelly penned a piece on Saturday entitled "The sun is setting on the NFL, and fast" in which he chronicles the multiple issues facing the league. Chief among them is the concussion and CTE issue which the league first denied entirely before finally, in the face of incontrovertible evidence, acknowledging the connection between football and brain injuries. Aside from that, the most concerning data point in Kelly's article comes from a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll of American males aged 18-49. Four years ago, 75% of this group said that they followed the NFL closely. Now, that number has plummeted to 51%. With the league's television ratings down 10% this season (compounded with an 8% drop last year), the NFL's popularity looks like it's about to fall off a cliff. Sure, it may stabilize at some point and may even recover a bit of lost ground but it's hard to see how. Kelly compares the NFL's declining popularity to Facebook which is also suffering from a drop in new accounts and in overall engagement. But, as Kelly points out, there is no other Facebook while sports fans have many other options. The NFL chalks up the drop in viewership to cable cord-cutting, an increasingly fragmented television landscape and fans tuning in on devices other than televisions. All plausible explanations for sure but how then can the NBA's improving television ratings be explained?
The Onion reported this fun fact last night on Twitter: "All of this year's Superbowl confetti was made from shredded concussion and CTE studies".
The Eagles and their fans finally have their Lombardi trophy which - and this has always been one of my pet peeves about the NFL - was presented by Goodell not to the team's quarterback, captain or coach but to the team's owner Jeffrey Lurie. The NHL does it right every year when the Commissioner hands the Stanley Cup to the winning team's captain.
I wrote these three paragraphs yesterday afternoon before the game:
Justin Timberlake held a press conference last Thursday - as is the requirement for the headliner of the Superbowl halftime show. Among other things, he confirmed that no special guests would be appearing alongside him for his 20 minute performance. He also made an offer to Patriots coach Bill Belichick that if all of his receivers were injured, Justin was ready to suit up and run routes himself. Very nice. Then came a question about his 3 year-old son perhaps running routes in the NFL some day. Timberlake replied with "he will never play football". He then moved on to a rambling explanation of how he just wants his son to become a great person whether or not he shows interest in the arts or sports or anything else. Goodell was probably doing a slow burn.
There were two newspaper articles this past weekend which, quite honestly, made me seriously question whether or not I will renew my Bills season tickets - a decision I will have to make within the next two or three weeks. I don't recall an NFL player named Rob Kelly who played five seasons at safety for the Saints and the Patriots between 1997 and 2001 before his career ended with a neck injury he suffered in training camp in 2002. On Friday, the New York Times published an article written by Kelly's wife Emily about her husband which I found quite disturbing. Starting in 2009 (seven years after his football career ended), Kelly began to suffer from mood swings, depression and weight loss which eventually qualified him for "total and permanent disability payments" under the NFL's pension plan. She says that her husband certainly recognized that football was a dangerous game but, along with many other former players, she states that "these men chose football, but they didn't choose brain damage". Emily Kelly's husband is now a shadow of his former self and she finds support within a group of wives and partners of former players suffering similar problems. I'm aware that we hear only about those former players who are suffering the long-term effects of a football career. I wonder, of the thousands of players who have suited up in the NFL, what percentage is more-or-less fine ten or more years afterward and what percentage is not.
The Globe and Mail's sports editorial writer Cathal Kelly penned a piece on Saturday entitled "The sun is setting on the NFL, and fast" in which he chronicles the multiple issues facing the league. Chief among them is the concussion and CTE issue which the league first denied entirely before finally, in the face of incontrovertible evidence, acknowledging the connection between football and brain injuries. Aside from that, the most concerning data point in Kelly's article comes from a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll of American males aged 18-49. Four years ago, 75% of this group said that they followed the NFL closely. Now, that number has plummeted to 51%. With the league's television ratings down 10% this season (compounded with an 8% drop last year), the NFL's popularity looks like it's about to fall off a cliff. Sure, it may stabilize at some point and may even recover a bit of lost ground but it's hard to see how. Kelly compares the NFL's declining popularity to Facebook which is also suffering from a drop in new accounts and in overall engagement. But, as Kelly points out, there is no other Facebook while sports fans have many other options. The NFL chalks up the drop in viewership to cable cord-cutting, an increasingly fragmented television landscape and fans tuning in on devices other than televisions. All plausible explanations for sure but how then can the NBA's improving television ratings be explained?
The Onion reported this fun fact last night on Twitter: "All of this year's Superbowl confetti was made from shredded concussion and CTE studies".
Monday, 8 January 2018
Jaguars 10, Bills 3
The play which ended the Bills season was an interception thrown by Nathan Peterman and one which, with application of a strict interpretation of the meaning of a catch by the league officials in New York, could have been ruled incomplete on review. A fitting last play on both counts. I still held on to the fantasy that Peterman would be given another shot which would be a touchdown pass to Zay Jones to tie the game. But I also thought that if the Bills had won yesterday, they would have carried that momentum to Foxborough and dethroned the Patriots. Then the Steelers. Then the Vikings. They just fell a few steps short is all.
This was an infuriating game to watch for fans of both teams and probably only those with large wagers on the under found any satisfaction in it. Although the defences looked competent yesterday - if not quite good at times - the anemic performances by both offences made for generally excruciating playoff football viewing for those who made it all the way through. With the exception of a fourth down strike for the game's only touchdown, Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles looked like a recent call-up from the practice squad until he realized that running was really his best option. Tyrod Taylor looked a bit more polished for his part but with a receiving corps which is barely NFL worthy, he was unable to engineer the kind of scoring threat that wins NFL games. I wonder if his last play in a Buffalo uniform will turn out to be the one which knocked him from the game after his head was slammed backwards into the turf, and making way for Peterman who did what he has shown that he does best.
The Bills have a load of draft picks over the next two years, including picks 21 and 22 in the first round of this April's draft. I expect that one of those will be a quarterback. If Taylor does leave the team this off-season, I will remember him as someone who comported himself with dignity and professionalism in a Bills uniform - sometimes in the face of intense criticism. When he was benched in Los Angeles a few weeks ago, he handled it like a pro and went on to play well for the rest of the season. And - I will say this quite possibly for the final time - he always protected the ball and I always loved him for that. Speaking of professionalism, yesterday was probably the last game for Kyle Williams who wanted to retire a year ago. He has been the anchor of the defensive line since 2003 and will be missed.
Now that it's done, the 2017 Bills season has to be rated as a success with a drought-breaking trip to the playoffs even after appearing to opt early on for a rebuild strategy by jettisoning top players for draft picks. The current coaching staff and general manager have changed the culture for the better and Bills fans will be looking for more progress next year. I for one will want to see evidence that a division title (and the home playoff game that goes with it) is within reach.
A note on television advertising: I watch on an HD antenna so during NFL football games, I get the US network commercials, many of which are not carried on Canadian simulcasts that most viewers see (but most Canadian sports fans will have seen the ads on other broadcasts). Without using any proper methodology but based on ads I have seen broadcast during this NFL season, I have concluded that the most competitive industry in America has to be property and casualty insurance. Nationwide has a series of spots this season with Peyton Manning and Brad Paisley; State Farm uses Aaron Rodgers and Clay Mathews; Progressive doesn't use football players but has featured "Flo" since 2008 and everyone knows that no US insurance company has a larger advertising budget than GEICO. The combined annual network television spending of these four firms alone is obviously massive and I wonder if one of them might consider unilaterally disarming from some of its television spending and actually offering lower insurance rates instead. If 15 minutes can save you 15% or more on car insurance, imagine how much you could save with a company that you've never heard of and that doesn't spend many tens of millions (or more) on television advertising.
Look for one more post this season: the Superbowl edition on February 5th.
This was an infuriating game to watch for fans of both teams and probably only those with large wagers on the under found any satisfaction in it. Although the defences looked competent yesterday - if not quite good at times - the anemic performances by both offences made for generally excruciating playoff football viewing for those who made it all the way through. With the exception of a fourth down strike for the game's only touchdown, Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles looked like a recent call-up from the practice squad until he realized that running was really his best option. Tyrod Taylor looked a bit more polished for his part but with a receiving corps which is barely NFL worthy, he was unable to engineer the kind of scoring threat that wins NFL games. I wonder if his last play in a Buffalo uniform will turn out to be the one which knocked him from the game after his head was slammed backwards into the turf, and making way for Peterman who did what he has shown that he does best.
The Bills have a load of draft picks over the next two years, including picks 21 and 22 in the first round of this April's draft. I expect that one of those will be a quarterback. If Taylor does leave the team this off-season, I will remember him as someone who comported himself with dignity and professionalism in a Bills uniform - sometimes in the face of intense criticism. When he was benched in Los Angeles a few weeks ago, he handled it like a pro and went on to play well for the rest of the season. And - I will say this quite possibly for the final time - he always protected the ball and I always loved him for that. Speaking of professionalism, yesterday was probably the last game for Kyle Williams who wanted to retire a year ago. He has been the anchor of the defensive line since 2003 and will be missed.
Now that it's done, the 2017 Bills season has to be rated as a success with a drought-breaking trip to the playoffs even after appearing to opt early on for a rebuild strategy by jettisoning top players for draft picks. The current coaching staff and general manager have changed the culture for the better and Bills fans will be looking for more progress next year. I for one will want to see evidence that a division title (and the home playoff game that goes with it) is within reach.
A note on television advertising: I watch on an HD antenna so during NFL football games, I get the US network commercials, many of which are not carried on Canadian simulcasts that most viewers see (but most Canadian sports fans will have seen the ads on other broadcasts). Without using any proper methodology but based on ads I have seen broadcast during this NFL season, I have concluded that the most competitive industry in America has to be property and casualty insurance. Nationwide has a series of spots this season with Peyton Manning and Brad Paisley; State Farm uses Aaron Rodgers and Clay Mathews; Progressive doesn't use football players but has featured "Flo" since 2008 and everyone knows that no US insurance company has a larger advertising budget than GEICO. The combined annual network television spending of these four firms alone is obviously massive and I wonder if one of them might consider unilaterally disarming from some of its television spending and actually offering lower insurance rates instead. If 15 minutes can save you 15% or more on car insurance, imagine how much you could save with a company that you've never heard of and that doesn't spend many tens of millions (or more) on television advertising.
Look for one more post this season: the Superbowl edition on February 5th.
Monday, 1 January 2018
Bengals 31, Ravens 27
Our New Year's Eve dinner at the cottage was literally being served with the guests seated and hungry after I had prolonged the sit-down time through the end of the Bills game in Miami and the last few excruciating minutes of what looked like a Ravens come-back against a Cincinnati team which was motivated by playing a spoiler role and by winning what was likely to be the last game for their popular and long-tenured coach Marvin Lewis. "This is the last play right here" I said as the Bengals lined up for a desperate and probably game-ending fourth down and 12 at mid-field, trailing the Ravens by three points. Then Andy Dalton hit a wide open Tyler Boyd who raced to the endzone for the Bengal touchdown. It was amazing. But it wasn't the last meaningful play of the game as the Bengal defence had to hold the Ravens who needed a touchdown to win. And the Bengal defence held indeed. Incredibly, they defeated the Ravens in Baltimore and by so doing eliminated them while sending the Buffalo Bills to the NFL playoffs for the first time since the Music City Miracle in Nashville in January, 2000.
I spent a bit of time on this New Year's Day morning trying to figure out why the Los Angeles Chargers did not earn the sixth and final seed in the AFC playoff picture but could not find the answer. They ended the season with the same 9-7 record as the Bills but held the head-to-head tie-breaker against them by virtue of their win in LA on November 19th in what Bills fans have come to know as the Nathan Peterman debacle. Maybe the tie-breaker works differently when multiple teams are tied - as they were with the Bills, Chargers, Ravens and Titans (who earned the fifth seed) all finishing the season tied at 9-7. Whatever. They're in and there is a Bills playoff game to be played on Sunday in Jacksonville. The Jaguars are early seven point favourites.
Before the Dalton to Boyd touchdown, the Bills had taken care of business in Miami with a strong game which was not as close as the final score of 22-16 would indicate. Tyrod Taylor continued his improved passing and the defence bent but didn't break. LeSean McCoy went down with an ankle injury which looked bad enough to keep him out for at least the next week but I am confident (pure speculation here) that he will be back for the Superbowl - if not the AFC Championship Game. McCoy or not, I like the Bills chances going into Jacksonville as the Jaguars are new to the idea of having a home playoff game and all of the pressure and fan expectations which go along with it. The Bills will be loose and irreverent as they look to extend their season with a win next week and earn a trip to either Foxborough or Pittsburgh the following week. I have virtually no confidence that they can win in either of those places but it would be fun to have a shot.
The NFL has had a very difficult season on a number of fronts as we all know. The commissioner recently pointed out that television ratings for NFL games this season are only down 1% from last year but he did not address the fact that there has been a much larger drop in actual in-stadium game attendance across the league. The Bills had good crowds for almost all of their eight home games this year but I was quite surprised to notice that most of the upper deck at M & T Bank Stadium in Baltimore was empty yesterday. Yes it was very cold by normal Maryland standards and it was late start which meant that most of the game was played after dark but this was a game where the home team simply had to win to get in to the playoffs and I would have expected much better fan support in Baltimore. Most NFL revenue is generated from its massive television audiences with stadium gate receipts well down the list of revenue line items but the in-stadium experience is one of the most appealing parts of the sport of football and the NFL. I don't like seeing swaths of empty seats any time but especially not for critically important later-season games with playoff births at stake.
It's been cold here in Muskoka. And I mean really cold. I arrived at 7.45am on Thursday morning with the outside temperature sitting at minus 33. Yesterday's high was minus 24. The skiing is squeaky and slow with little glide. The dog usually wants in after only a few minutes. One more sauna and cold plunge today before we leave tomorrow. Happy New Year.
I spent a bit of time on this New Year's Day morning trying to figure out why the Los Angeles Chargers did not earn the sixth and final seed in the AFC playoff picture but could not find the answer. They ended the season with the same 9-7 record as the Bills but held the head-to-head tie-breaker against them by virtue of their win in LA on November 19th in what Bills fans have come to know as the Nathan Peterman debacle. Maybe the tie-breaker works differently when multiple teams are tied - as they were with the Bills, Chargers, Ravens and Titans (who earned the fifth seed) all finishing the season tied at 9-7. Whatever. They're in and there is a Bills playoff game to be played on Sunday in Jacksonville. The Jaguars are early seven point favourites.
Before the Dalton to Boyd touchdown, the Bills had taken care of business in Miami with a strong game which was not as close as the final score of 22-16 would indicate. Tyrod Taylor continued his improved passing and the defence bent but didn't break. LeSean McCoy went down with an ankle injury which looked bad enough to keep him out for at least the next week but I am confident (pure speculation here) that he will be back for the Superbowl - if not the AFC Championship Game. McCoy or not, I like the Bills chances going into Jacksonville as the Jaguars are new to the idea of having a home playoff game and all of the pressure and fan expectations which go along with it. The Bills will be loose and irreverent as they look to extend their season with a win next week and earn a trip to either Foxborough or Pittsburgh the following week. I have virtually no confidence that they can win in either of those places but it would be fun to have a shot.
The NFL has had a very difficult season on a number of fronts as we all know. The commissioner recently pointed out that television ratings for NFL games this season are only down 1% from last year but he did not address the fact that there has been a much larger drop in actual in-stadium game attendance across the league. The Bills had good crowds for almost all of their eight home games this year but I was quite surprised to notice that most of the upper deck at M & T Bank Stadium in Baltimore was empty yesterday. Yes it was very cold by normal Maryland standards and it was late start which meant that most of the game was played after dark but this was a game where the home team simply had to win to get in to the playoffs and I would have expected much better fan support in Baltimore. Most NFL revenue is generated from its massive television audiences with stadium gate receipts well down the list of revenue line items but the in-stadium experience is one of the most appealing parts of the sport of football and the NFL. I don't like seeing swaths of empty seats any time but especially not for critically important later-season games with playoff births at stake.
It's been cold here in Muskoka. And I mean really cold. I arrived at 7.45am on Thursday morning with the outside temperature sitting at minus 33. Yesterday's high was minus 24. The skiing is squeaky and slow with little glide. The dog usually wants in after only a few minutes. One more sauna and cold plunge today before we leave tomorrow. Happy New Year.
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