Monday, 22 October 2018

Colts 38, Bills 5

I can't decide whether yesterday's game was worse for Bills fans than week one at Baltimore was when the Bills were crushed 47-3. I am certain that it doesn't matter at all as either game provided clear evidence that the Bills are one of the worst two or three teams in the NFL in 2018. They are in contention for the first overall draft pick in 2019 along with the Cardinals, the Raiders and the 49ers. It seems hard to believe but going into week seven, some NFL pundits actually placed the Colts below the Bills in their power rankings. I expect that will change.

The game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis yesterday was scoreless through the first quarter but the Colts and their blue chip quarterback Andrew Luck came alive in the second quarter with 24 points. The Bills defence, which had played surprisingly well over the past four weeks, delivered a decidedly uninspired performance. On the other side of the ball, journeyman quarterback Derek Anderson, who was on vacation with his family two weeks ago when he got the call from Bills GM Brandon Beane, looked almost serviceable in the early going but faded as the game went on. He earns the Vontae Davis Halftime Retirement Award this week. For not staying retired. I suspect that this morning, he wishes that his vacation had taken him well out of cell range. Nathan Peterman probably watched the game from the sidelines with a feeling of relief that at least he would not be the scapegoat this week.

I caught some of the post-game commiseration on WGR yesterday. The mood fluctuated between somber and outraged as callers seemed particularly nonsensical and Mike Schop and the Bulldog gave them little leeway. They wondered if Bills coach Sean McDermott, now a season and a half into his head-coaching tenure, had, for the first time, "lost his team" yesterday. Did the defence simply lose motivation knowing that two weeks ago their starting quarterback was on vacation from his aluminum siding sales job? McDermott had been able to get his defence dialed-in for the last month but not yesterday. Will they end up at 2-14 and claim that first overall pick, they asked.

They then turned their attention to week eight. A Monday night home game. The first one in ten years. Wow! With the Patriots coming to Orchard Park in prime time, how should Bills fans be feeling about this game, they asked. What would the opening line be? The answer to that question is 13 points. As for how the fan base should be feeling, well, that's a tough one.

NBC took over the broadcast rights to Sunday Night Football from ESPN (which had the rights to the Sunday prime time games since they began in 1987) in 2006. ESPN took Monday Night Football from its related company ABC the same year. Ratings for SNF soon surged and is now consistently the most watched NFL game each week. Between 1970 and 2006, MNF was the league's prime time jewel. Since I became a dedicated Bills fan in the late 1970s, some of the most memorable Bills games took place on MNF. Among them are: (1) a game on November 14, 1988 when the Bills went into Joe Robbie Stadium in Miami and throttled the Dolphins 31-6 on their way to winning the AFC East before going all the way to the AFC Championship Game that season and starting their run of dominance which lasted until Jim Kelly retired after the 1996 season, (2) the October 8, 2007 home game against the heavily favoured Dallas Cowboys which the Bills should have won but lost 25-24 on a long field goal as time ran out, and (3) another 25-24 loss on opening week of the 2009 season at New England when Leodis McKelvin fumbled the game away on a kick-off return. Fans spray-painted messages on the front lawn of McKelvin's house later that night. Maybe this week's game will remind us of the 2007 game with a cranked-up crowd supporting the underdog. And maybe the kicker will miss as time runs out.

Today, in Ontario, we vote. I'm not sure who is running for dog-catcher in my ward but I will make it my business to find out before I walk up to Glenview Presbyterian Church this evening. I have been thinking that it may be time to make some changes to municipal government structure in Ontario - in two areas in particular: the "weak mayor" system and the prohibition of political parties. Maybe these changes should apply only to Toronto (or to Toronto and perhaps four or five other large Ontario cities). Whoever wins the Toronto mayoralty tonight will have earned more direct votes than any other politician in Canada - in the hundreds of thousands at least - and in return, they will hold one vote of 26 on the new council. That's it. To move their agenda forward, they will have to earn the support of a majority of their council colleagues. This is something that Rob Ford never quite understood or accepted and, honestly, I think he may have had a valid point. As for political parties, I have collected the campaign brochures of those running for council and school trustee in my ward. Everyone seems to be in favour of better transit, reduced traffic gridlock, affordable housing, more efficient municipal services and smaller class sizes. I have also met and spoken with some of the candidates and I think I know how I'm going to vote. But for most people in this major urban centre where they are very unlikely to know any of the candidates personally, how would they possibly decide? If candidates in municipal elections were permitted to affiliate themselves with political parties, those affiliations alone would help guide voters in some way. I just wish I could vote for an NDP dog-catcher.     

Monday, 15 October 2018

Texans 20, Bills 13

Derek Anderson was signed by the Buffalo Bills last week to be a mentor to Josh Allen. He was not on an NFL roster at the time, having reached the end of the line after last season with his former team, the Carolina Panthers, where Bills head coach Sean McDermott and General Manager Brandon Beane knew Anderson well. Anderson's first day with the Bills was last Wednesday and when Josh Allen arrived at the stadium, Anderson was already hard at work, having completed his weight session and was deep into reviewing film of the team's upcoming opponent. By all accounts, Anderson, a 14 year veteran, was helpful to Allen last week as he prepared to face the Texans in Houston. Fast forward less than a week and Anderson may find himself as the Bills starting quarterback on Sunday in Indianapolis.

Nathan Peterman is a past winner of the Vontae Davis Halftime Retirement Award (and there are only four of them, after Davis himself) but this week, I am awarding him with a variation on the award - a sort of forced retirement - as he is likely to be cut by the Bills after earning the starting quarterback job coming out of training camp and the pre-season. Peterman will become a punchline in Buffalo for his propensity to throw interceptions and it seems unlikely that any other NFL team would want to add him to its roster. In his two career starts - one in Los Angeles last year and another in this year's opener in Baltimore - and after coming in to last season's playoff game in Jacksonville and then entering yesterday's game in the third quarter for an injured Josh Allen, Peterman has established himself as a prolific interception thrower. He threw five in his ill-fated start last season and another in the playoff game but yesterday he reached a new level by literally throwing the game away with 1.23 remaining in the fourth quarter of a tied game. Peterman's pass, intended for Kelvin Benjamin, was read easily by Texans cornerback Jonathan Joseph (as Bucky Gleason of the Buffalo News put it, "he couldn't have read it more easily if it were flashed on a giant neon sign") who easily returned it for the game-winning touchdown. I can not see Peterman remaining on the Bills roster through the end of the season. If Allen can not play this week, look for Anderson to get the start with Peterman backing him up and then look for the Bills to cut Peterman once Allen is healthy again.

Lost in all of the Peterman interception excitement was an outstanding performance by the Bills defence in Houston yesterday. Think back to halftime of week two against the Chargers. Through a game and a half, the Bills defence looked like they couldn't stop anything. It was certainly enough for Vontae Davis and with clearly prolific ineptitude on both sides of the ball, I was preparing for the possibility of an 0-16 season and the first overall draft pick which goes with it. But since then, the Bills defence has steadily improved and yesterday in Houston, it looked very impressive indeed, allowing only 216 yards of offence and 13 points. The pass rush was awesome as Texans quarterback DeShaun Watson was sacked seven times and hit repeatedly. The Bills defence forced another three turnovers and held the Texans to a field goal at the end of the fourth quarter after setting up with a first down at the Bills one yard line after a pass interference call in the endzone. An outstretched Matt Milano got his hand in front of a third down pass from Watson to prevent a game-wining touchdown. Houston had little success in the run game with only 74 yards and, despite having one the NFL's best receivers in DeAndre Hopkins, the Texans managed only 142 passing yards on the day. With any modest level of offensive support, the Bills defence played more than well enough to win. I chalk up the improvement to good coaching.

Up next, the Bills travel to Indianapolis. By that time, cannabis use in Canada will have become legal. I think I'm looking forward to trying it on Wednesday to see if legal cannabis is any different from the kind which has been firmly embedded in the Criminal Code for a hundred years. I'll report back next week if I remember. I do hope that users will show respect for those who do not choose to use it and who find the smoke and the smell not only offensive but bad for their health. What we do not need, in my view, is a free-for-all with people smoking-up on the streets, in parks and in other public places any more than they already do now. I support the concept of legalization but I also support a reasonable and respectful level of discretion around the use of cannabis in public. 



 

Monday, 8 October 2018

Bills 13, Titans 12

Since the Music City Miracle in January of 2000, the Bills and Titans have faced each other eight times with the Bills winning only three of those games, including yesterday's last second 13-12 win in Orchard Park. With the most recent meeting before yesterday being a 14-13 win in Nashville in 2015, the Bills have now won the last two meetings with the Titans by a single point. Had Home Run Throwback not succeeded as it did so tragically for Bills fans, the Bills would have won that one 16-15. Tennessee entered the game yesterday as a five-and-a-half point favourite after beating the Super Bowl champion Eagles last week.

One long-time reader of this blog encouraged me to continue the "halftime retirement" theme throughout the season if possible. So, I will not only oblige but I have decided to name one player from each Bills game for the rest of the 2018 season as the winner of the weekly Vontae Davis Halftime Retirement Award. This week's candidate was more of a challenge to come up with but I have decided to name Titans wide receiver Nick Williams as the winner. Williams played for the University of Connecticut and was initially signed by the Atlanta Falcons as an un-drafted free agent in 2013 where he moved on and off the practice squad and saw limited action before signing with Washington and finally the Titans entering this season. He will quite likely be cut once again today and could find that his chances of getting on with another team are quite slim. Although his retirement-inducing play came in the fourth quarter yesterday when he dropped what looked like an easy touchdown pass from Marcus Mariota on a third down play, had he have been able to foresee it, he surely would have retired at halftime, thereby saving himself from being the game's goat (I know its a stretch).

Yesterday was Canadian Thanksgiving and, as I have done for several years, I brined, stuffed and roasted the turkey for our family dinner. The turkey went into the oven exactly at noon, immediately after which I did my one-hour bike ride and then settled into the game surrounded by family and friends who generally cared not at all about the Bills or any kind of football on TV. But I fought through the distractions and watched the Bills defence play a solid game which earned them three turnovers. The running game also showed up for the home team with LeSean McCoy gaining  a season-high 85 yards on 24 carries and Chris Ivory adding another 43 yards. Josh Allen picked up 19 yards which included the game's only touchdown in the first quarter. Allen did not have a strong game passing the ball but made a few key throws at critical times, especially on the final game winning drive.     

So, at 2-3 (and having won two of their past three games) the Bills are showing signs of having earned some measure of respectability in the NFL. I doubt that they will finish with the league's worst record as seemed likely after their first two games. On to Houston next week to face the Texans who eeked out an overtime win against the Cowboys last night. The Bills are early 10 point underdogs.

In a departure from recent posts, I want to weigh in on the recent SCOTUS developments. The point I want to make is by way of comparison of the US system to the convention which governs Canadian Supreme Court appointments. Now that the drama around his nomination and confirmation has mostly ended, I have to say that I was most struck by the way in which Mr. Kavanaugh comported himself before the Senate Judiciary Committee when he gave testimony the week before last. And I'm not really talking about the fact that he decided to repeat what I would classify as Fox News talking points in his testimony (which I disagree with but that's not the point I'm trying to make here). It was his demeanor and attitude which shocked me. In my view, it was the antithesis of how a judge on the nation's top court should behave in a very public setting. When I think of characteristics which befit a judge, I think of words like calm, thoughtful, reserved, rational, neutral, learned. In Canada, we rarely hear judges say anything at all publicly except perhaps after the retire from the bench. And when judges are appointed to the Supreme Court of Canada, we hear very little about their personal lives or political leanings and no mention at all of whether they might be conservative or liberal. The appointment process in Canada purports to operate above the unsavoury partisan bickering of the red/blue tug of war. Maybe we are fooling ourselves thinking that our judges aren't partisan and who knows, maybe they would react just as angrily as Mr. Kavanaugh did if we conducted pre-appointment hearings which included salacious details of their past personal lives. I just think that the events which played out over the past two weeks in the United States have damaged the American people's confidence in the SCOTUS and that is a sad development. 

Monday, 1 October 2018

Packers 22, Bills 0

I wasn't really worried about another halftime retirement by a member of the Bills (ok, there's only been one and I'll move off this theme after today) but if anyone was going to hang 'em up after the first half of yesterday's game at Lambeau Field, it could have been Josh Allen. Things went well for him last week in Minnesota but, as happens with rookie quarterbacks in the NFL, it all turned around yesterday against the Packers. Allen and the Bills offence were anemic at best, gaining only 145 yards on the day. Allen generated three turnovers - two interceptions and one fumble - while completing 16 of 33 attempted passes. Whatever pocket presence he had shown through his first two starts deserted him yesterday as he was was sacked a total of seven times. Green Bay fans will take comfort in a solid defensive effort by their team while Bills fans will lament an offensive performance to be forgotten.

Although the score never got out of hand, the game was not competitively close in any way. At times it felt like I was watching a football practice - a Packers practice, that is - where the Bills were only on the field as a scrimmage opponent posing no threat to actually win the game. The Bills were not quite the Washington Generals playing the role of doormats to the Harlem Globetrotters but at times the two teams didn't look like they play in the same league. I can remember games from the early 1990s which felt like yesterday's game with the Bills calling the practice drills against their own versions of the Generals.

Aaron Rodgers looked sharp yesterday despite a couple of missed throws and he also gave up a rare interception on a ball which was tipped twice. Otherwise, it was clear why he is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. He used yesterday's game as a chance to work on his pocket movement and, on a few plays, he looked like he was testing his mobility and playing a game of something between keep-away and chicken with the ball as he easily avoided the Bills pass rush. Those skills, combined with his arm strength and accuracy, make Rodgers a huge challenge to defend against. He is one of the NFL's biggest stars and one of its most recognizable faces. He has been able to leverage his popularity and clean image into lucrative television commercials with another campaign this season for State Farm insurance and a new gig for Bose noise-cancelling headphones where he is able to tune out Chicago Bears fans as he warms up before a game. The only known less-than-wholesome aspect of Rodgers public persona is the somewhat mysterious rift between him and his immediate family - his siblings and his parents - with whom he has not spoken for at least a couple of years. He doesn't comment publicly on this. His annual football salary is more than $33 million and he recently signed a contract extension which included $100 million guaranteed.

The Bills return home next week to face the Tennessee Titans who beat the Super Bowl champion Eagles in overtime yesterday. The overtime in Nashville was one of the few I can remember where the team which had the ball first (the Eagles) scored a field goal on their opening possession and then went on to lose the game. I still strongly feel that the NFL should adapt a version of the college football overtime format which is more dramatic and also ensures that no games end in ties. There have been two games already this season which have ended in ties and yesterday there could have easily been another two - Tennessee/Philadelphia and Oakland/Cleveland.

The AFC East reverted to the norm yesterday with the Bills, Jets and the previously undefeated Dolphins all losing and the Patriots showing that they are still for real. With a win against the Titans in Orchard Park on Sunday, the Bills can improve to a respectable sounding 2-3 on the season. They then go on the road again for two weeks with theoretically winnable games against Houston and Indianapolis before returning home for a Monday night home game against the Patriots.

Monday, 24 September 2018

Bills 27, Vikings 6

As the clock wound down toward the end of the first half in yesterday's game at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, I thought that the Bills roster would again be reduced by another halftime retirement. And this week's candidate was going to be Nathan Peterman. Had he followed Vontae Davis' lead from last week, Peterman probably would have made his decision when Josh Allen decided to launch himself up and over Vikings linebacker Anthony Barr on a third and nine run late in the first quarter with his team up 17-0. Peterman could have resigned himself at that point that he wasn't going to see another live snap this season as he watched Allen establish himself as the confident, aggressive, athletic leader the team was hoping he would become when they picked him seventh overall in April.

I guess Peterman wanted to stick around for the second half to see if his team would fold and allow the Vikings back into the game. But that didn't happen as the Bills came close to shutting out the Vikings on their home field for the first time since 1962. By the time the home team did finally score, the game was beyond reach and the Bills went on to earn their first win of the season. And if the team ends the season with three, four, five or perhaps six wins, yesterday's road performance will probably be remembered as the highlight - as the day that Josh Allen showed us why he is the future of the team and the day that the Bills showed the football world that they are in fact better than the Alabama Crimson Tide and maybe not the 32nd best professional football team in North America.

To put yesterday's win in perspective, the betting line at kick-off was Minnesota minus 16.5 which was the largest spread for a September NFL game in five years. The line opened at minus 17 but some Buffalo money late in the week brought it down by a half point. The spread was so large that Proline delisted the game and it actually was not on my $25,000 ticket (which didn't win but came close). Here's an even more remarkable statistic from yesterday's game: the Bills were the biggest underdog to win an NFL game outright since 1995. This game proved the principle we know by rote that any team can win on any given Sunday. Pundits, odds-makers and gamblers also know the principle of a "trap game" and the Vikings, who travel to Los Angeles to play the Rams on Thursday, fell hard into the trap of overlooking what was considered to be the worst team in the league while subconsciously preparing to play the Rams four days later, who some consider to be the best.

I heaped plenty of praise on Tony Romo as a colour commentator last season (his first) so I don't need to go on about it again - except to say that he delivers the most insightful analysis of anyone in that role, ever. Yesterday was no exception. I'm not sure why Buffalo at Minnesota deserved CBS's top broadcast team of Romo and his play-by-play partner Jim Nantz but I'm glad that it did. Romo addressed the issue which emerged after last week's game against the Chargers where head coach Sean McDermott took over the defensive play-calling from coordinator (and former Vikings head coach) Leslie Frazier at halftime. Romo explained that the passing back and forth of play-calling responsibilities between head coaches and coordinators is common-place and depends on who has the best feel for how the game is going. I don't know who called the defensive formations yesterday but they worked extremely well as the Bills were able to pressure Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins all afternoon. The Bills pass rush earned them two key turnovers in the first quarter which they turned into 10 points and never looked back. In his post-game locker room speech, McDermott gave the game ball to Frazier.

The Green Bay Packers lost yesterday in Washington to bring their season record to 1-1-1 with the high-flying Bills traveling to the not-quite-frozen tundra of Lambeau Field on Sunday. I suspect that the Packers will not fall into the same trap as the Vikings did so the Bills will have a much tougher test in week four. But, as we know, and as was proven yesterday, any team can beat any other team on any given Sunday. 



Monday, 17 September 2018

Chargers 31, Bills 20

Vontae Davis, we hardly knew ya!

Have you ever taken a new job and felt like quitting at lunchtime? Maybe the company's prospects look bleak; perhaps the management appears to be less than competent; could be that you're just not feeling that great and you'd rather be somewhere else. Then take inspiration from Davis and just walk out. You can show them that you think nothing of bolting if things aren't going your way. One thing's for sure: you will be remembered for quitting - and for the way you quit - even if you had a decent 10 year career beforehand.

The Buffalo Bills signed the cornerback, entering his 10th NFL season, in February to a one-year contract worth $5 million, with $3.5 million of that guaranteed. He was a healthy scratch from the Bills line-up in week one but was activated for yesterday's home opener in Orchard Park. He played the first half and apparently felt that he was physically unable to perform to the level he wanted. So, he quit. Quit the team, quit the NFL, quit the sport of football. At halftime. Not only did he pull himself from the game but he showered, changed into street clothes and, rather than joining his teammates on the sidelines for the second half, he left the stadium and then issued a self-serving statement to the media. There is no precedent for this as far as I know. So, readers, take inspiration; if things don't go well this morning, when noon rolls around, just walk out.

Back to the $3.5 million in guaranteed money. If I were Bills GM Brandon Beane, I might try to avoid Terry Pegula today at least until I can think of a reasonable explanation for giving away $3.5 million of his oil-fracking money to one player in exchange for one crappy half of football. If his deal had been $5 million for the season with nothing guaranteed, then Davis would have earned one game cheque of about $312,500 -  and it seems to me that the Bills would have a solid argument to cut that amount in half. He will earn that single game cheque anyway but he also walks away with the $3.5 million. Move over Jian Ghomeshi, Vontae Davis is this week's hashtag. I have a feeling that Davis won't feel as sorry for himself as Ghomeshi apparently does.

Driving home from the cottage, WGR post-game hosts Mike Schop and the Bulldog were looking for any suggestion of a silver lining from the home opener and they latched on to the performance of quarterback Josh Allen. Despite some notable throwing inaccuracies, they said that Allen looked poised under centre and overall played decently enough to encourage the fan base and give them some optimism for the future. Hardly glowing praise but I am inclined to agree with their assessment in that he certainly does not seem to have the Nathan Peterman "deer in the headlights" look about him and his big arm, when properly harnessed, will serve him well as long as he can improve on locating his passes. He seems to have a good instinct for pocket presence and is deceptively fast when flushed. Maybe his big arm will serve him well when the weather turns cold and windy.

Schop and the Bulldog also made the point that last year's unlikely trip to the playoffs provided Bills ownership and management with the necessary relief for the fan base to justify stripping everything down, having an epically bad season in 2018 and rebuilding most of the roster from the bottom up starting next year. This follows 16 years of posting between 6 and 9 wins - not bad enough to be the worst but not good enough to be a playoff team except for last season when a fortuitous 4th down play on New Year's Eve in Baltimore squeaked them into the tournament as the 6th seed in the AFC.

That analysis makes sense to me. But I still have 7 home games this season to deal with. The appeal will be watching the continuing development of Josh Allen while hoping that the Bills league-worst offensive line doesn't get him killed in the process. With December games against the Jets, Lions and Dolphins on the schedule, if Allen is injured, I for one won't be too interested in watching Nathan Peterman deal with his gremlins. 








Sunday, 9 September 2018

Ravens 47, Bills 3

When the NFL first introduced a salary cap in 1994 (set at $34 million per team) it was intended to, among other things, assist in the creation of long-term league-wide team parity. The age of team dynasties in the NFL - think of the Steelers in the 1970s and the 49ers in the 1980s - essentially died with the advent of the cap. The Buffalo Bills were actually one of the last examples of a team which maintained its core group of star players through many seasons, earning four consecutive AFC Championships at one point along the way.

NFL General Managers not only assemble their team's coaching staffs and rosters and oversee armies of college and pro scouts but they must also constantly focus on adherence to the league salary cap which is set at $177 million for the current season. Each team is restricted by that upper limit but also must spend not less than 89% of the cap each year. With NFL player contracts not guaranteed beyond the amount of their signing bonuses, these bonuses - and the way they must be accounted for under the cap - can sometimes haunt teams for years after players who earned them are jettisoned. That's because any unamortized portion of a released or traded player's signing bonus counts against a team's cap in the current year even if the bonus was paid in full when the contract was signed. This is known in the salary cap world as "dead money". It can kill a team - and sometimes quickly.

The Buffalo Bills enter the 2018 season with a staggering and by far the league's biggest dead cap money allocation at $54 million . Think of it this way: Of the $177 million they can spend on player salaries, $54 million is unavailable off the top because of the accumulation of unamortized signing bonuses for players the Bills have traded or released. The league average this year is $11.9 million. Four players - Marcel Dareus, Eric Wood (who retired unexpectedly for medical reasons), Cordy Glenn and Tyrod Taylor - account for about $41 million of it. The team with the second highest dead cap number is the Cowboys with $28.8 million. The New England Patriots have $6.3 million.

The dead cap anvil around Bills GM Brandon Beane's neck - and yesterday's embarrassing rout in Baltimore - are the bad news. And there will probably be much more of it over the next 15 games. The good news is not for this season but for next as the Bills will enjoy the second-highest salary cap space in the league at $76 million. With that, they can sign free agents and lock in some of their other assets. But that's going to happen in 2019. We need to get through 2018 first and season ticket holders like me need to come up with reasons to go to the 8 home games on the schedule. Or reasons for anyone to go.

The game in rainy Baltimore yesterday unfolded as the antithesis of what Bills fans had hoped for. They won the coin toss. Then everything unraveled as fully and completely as it could have. Especially for Nathan Peterman whose second career NFL start was not much better than his first one last season. Josh Allen came in when the score reached 40-0. And I went for a bike ride.

The Los Angeles Chargers, who travel to Orchard Park next week for the Bills home opener, lost their own home opener yesterday so both teams will be looking to avoid an 0-2 start. For the Chargers, it matters a lot as they are expected to compete for a division title in the AFC West. For the Bills, I'll be happy to just see more of Josh Allen under centre and some improvement on the only two things Marv Levy said a team needs to do to win in the NFL: running the ball and stopping the run.