Monday, 25 December 2017

Patriots 37, Bills 16

The Bills played the Patriots almost evenly for almost three quarters of football yesterday in Foxborough, MA. The memory which most Bills fans will take away from this game is the fact that they should have gone to the locker room at halftime leading 17-13, rather than tied at 13 as they were. This was thanks to another virtually incomprehensible replay reversal - this time of a brilliant Kelvin Benjamin touchdown catch in the endzone in the closing seconds of the first half. But, as SI's Peter King pointed out, the NFL has micro-managed the replay function to the point of absurdity. Bill Cowher also discussed the play in great detail in the CBS studio yesterday. Cowher explained that a close and strict reading of the rule in terms of what constitutes a catch and what doesn't comes down to the meaning of "control" when a receiver is catching the ball, getting both feet down in bounds and perhaps switching which hand the ball is in when going to the ground. Cowher believes that the Benjamin catch should have stood as a touchdown because of his own interpretation of what constitutes control of the ball, compared to how the replay officials are interpreting it. He thought that Benjamin had control and retained control of the ball from the time it hit his hands - including the moment when he acrobatically got both feet down in bounds and tumbled to the ground. Yes the ball was moving in Benjamin's hands but, in Cowher's view, he had full "control"of the ball throughout the process. I still don't think that the Bills would have won the game even if they did have a four point lead at halftime. Other than a defensive touchdown on a very rare pick 6 thrown by Tom Brady, the Bills offence struggled mightily in the red zone and managed only three field goals. Sean McDermott's decision to try to long field goal on a fourth and one while trailing by a touchdown was a poor one and spelled the end for the Bills who were then steamrolled for two more touchdowns.

But a playoff birth for the Bills remains possible and the scenarios are not as far-fetched as they sometimes are with teams needing several games to end in ties and a certain team needing to score nine touchdowns etc. For the Bills, it's really quite simple: they need to win in week 17 in Miami and they also need either a Baltimore loss or losses by both Tennessee and the Los Angeles Chargers. Easy, right? Well, the Ravens, who play at home against the Bengals, control their own destiny and are in with a win without any help from other teams. Not likely that the Cincinnati Bengals will deny the Ravens a playoff birth. The Titans play at home to Jacksonville and are also in a "win and in" scenario without help from others. This one is more interesting because the Jaguars do have a remote shot at the second seed if the Steelers lose at home to Cleveland. And Jacksonville is a better team that the Titans are so a Jaguar win in Nashville is entirely possible. The Chargers play at home to an Oakland team with nothing to play for other than the traditional spoiler role after a very disappointing season. The Chargers win the tie-breaker against the Bills, having won their head-to-head match-up but lose the tie-breaker to the Titans based on conference records. For New Year's Eve, Go Bills and Go Bengals and/or Go Jaguars and Go Raiders.

The overnight snow has stopped as I sit here in north Toronto very early Christmas morning. We will have a safe passage to St. Catharines this morning I think as the highways will be plowed by the time we leave. Merry Christmas to those who celebrate it and happy two days off in any event to those who don't. 

Monday, 18 December 2017

Bills 24, Dolphins 16

Jay Cutler has one of the strongest throwing arms in the NFL. Yesterday in Orchard Park in conditions which were orders of magnitude better for football than they were a week earlier, he threw for 274 yards - a total which was about 50 yards more than Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor tallied on the day. Both teams put up 21 first downs and the Dolphins held the ball for just over 32 minutes while the Bills had it for just over 27 minutes. Miami had 349 total yards to the Bills 328. It was obviously an evenly matched game. The difference? Cutler threw three interceptions and Taylor threw none. I have gone on about this for three years now and yesterday's game proves my point once again: Tyrod Taylor avoids costly turnovers. This almost always allows his team to stay in games with a chance to win down the stretch. It's really quite simple. Nathan Peterman may turn out to be a perfectly serviceable NFL quarterback someday but, in stark contrast to Taylor, his start in Los Angeles a few weeks ago (I'm ignoring last week's blizzard game in this analysis) was a perfect example of how interceptions lead to losses. Cutler played well at times yesterday and the Dolphins running game was working well too but the turnovers were the differentiating factor between two relatively evenly matched teams. 

Yesterday also saw LeSean McCoy become the 30th player in NFL history to record 10,000 career rushing yards. Now in his ninth season, he has been very consistent. In six seasons with the Eagles, he racked up 6,792 rushing yards and with almost three seasons under his belt in Buffalo, he has 3,219 yards on the ground. McCoy is a gifted runner who poses the greatest threat when he breaks through the line to the "second level" of defenders (linebackers and safeties) where he can make tacklers miss like few others ever have. He is a kind of feast or famine running back because when he doesn't make it through the line, he is often dropped for a loss. A McCoy run is usually either good for 12 yards or minus 2 yards. He has a long way to go before he catches all-time NFL rushing leader Emmit Smith with 18,355 yards. 

I was checking on the Partiots game and stoking the sauna fire late yesterday afternoon and I left the game in the Steelers hands when the sauna reached the requisite 110 degrees celsius. The score was 24-16 for Pittsburgh in the fourth quarter and the Partiots were lining up to punt as I checked on it for the last time. I thought the Steelers would likely hang on and clinch home field for the AFC playoffs in the process. And the Bills would be headed to Foxborough two games behind the Patriots with two games to go and a theoretical, although slim, chance at a division title. But New England got a key late interception (have I mentioned that these are critically important?) in their own endzone to secure the win - a scenario which reminded me of the end of Superbowl XLIX where the Patriots intercepted Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson at the end of the game to turn a likely loss into a win. So, the Patriots and Steelers are both 11-3 now with the Patriots holding the key head-to-head tie-breaker. 

Now at 8-6, the Bills and their rookie head coach Sean McDermott are assured of avoiding a losing season which is something that few pundits foresaw in their pre-season predictions. NBC showed the Bills as occupying the 6th and final seed in the AFC playoff race last night and I presume that they crunched all of the tie-breaker numbers before doing so. Their destiny, in terms of making the NFL playoffs for the first time since 1999 and ending the Drought, therefore lies within their own hands. A trip to New England at this late and critical time of the season would not be anyone's first choice unless the Patriots had already wrapped up the first seed. But they still need to do that and the Bills therefore face a monumental challenge in week 16. If they can somehow pull out a win, they will have earned the right to a playoff birth in my mind.     

Monday, 11 December 2017

Bills 13, Colts 7, OT

I had prepared myself to type "Colts 8, Bills 7" this morning after the Colts successful two-point convert yesterday in what appeared to be Orchard Park, NY. There definitely was an NFL game played somewhere in the lee of the westward winds off Lake Erie but at times, on TV, it was hard to tell what was really happening. After I took a long walk in the snow here in Muskoka then had a nap, the official threw the flag which, after a long discussion, was determined to be for offensive pass interference on the two-point convert. It was then taken off the score board and the Colts were assessed a 10 yards penalty. What followed was an interesting rule interpretation because the Colts elected to kick the single point convert rather than try for two again. The 10 yard penalty was then correctly enforced from the 15 yard line where single point kicked converts are snapped from. This made Adam Venetieri's knuckle ball kick, which started right then corrected in mid-air, the equivalent of a 42 yard field goal. The Colts could have chosen to go for two again from the 12 and half yard line - after the enforcement of the 10 yard penalty. I was a little surprised that they elected to kick under those conditions but the decision proved right. Venetieri later missed what would have been a game-winning field goal a few minutes later.

The last snow game I can recall that is even remotely comparable to yesterday's was a Bills 8-0 loss to the Cleveland Browns on December 16, 2007 on the south shore of Lake Erie. The conditions in that game, which Sports Illustrated ranked as the third-best snow game of all time, were similar but with considerably less snow on the field than there was yesterday in Orchard Park. The game featured countless turnovers (which yesterday's game amazingly did not with only one) and generally inept play on both sides before Cleveland finally scored a late touchdown and a two-point convert.

I have been to several games over the years where snow flurries and squalls came through the stadium in waves, sometimes covering the field but never accumulating to very much. I have to say that I was glad to be watching the game from the comfort of my cottage where the outside conditions matched those at the stadium as it also snowed heavily for the entire game. But one of my friends, who claimed the Colts tickets months ago, was the lucky one, along with his son and another father-son duo, who experienced the blizzard which began during the tailgate party and carried on well past the end of overtime. If they stayed to see LeSean McCoy score the winning touchdown, then he will have earned himself a pair of tickets to a game next year. But it has to be in mid-December just to keep things fair. As they were leaving, he sent me a photo of his bar-b-que beside his car which was covered in what looked like about 18 inches of snow. I hope the drive home wasn't too bad. During the game, CBS showed the radar image of the lake effect snow bands which were pointed directly at Orchard Park but they were so localized that places like Grand Island, only a few miles to the north, were entirely clear of the snow.

Nathan Peterman got the start yesterday as Tyrod Taylor was out with a knee injury. He mostly handed the ball off but was able to connect with Kelvin Benjamin twice on the Bills first scoring drive before he was injured in the third quarter trying to dive for extra yardage on a broken play. In came Joseph Webb III (who, ironically, is also the third string quarterback on the depth chart) to finish the game. He looked tall, mobile and threw a great deep ball to Deonte Thompson to set up the winning touchdown. I'm not sure how useful any evaluation of players is in a snow game but, to me, Webb is worth another look at some point. So is Peterman I guess.

The NFL tie-breaking procedures are complex but for now, the Bills are seeded 8th, behind the Ravens (who occupy the 6th seed which does qualify for a wild-card playoff birth) and the Chargers. All three teams are 7-6 with three games remaining. The Maimi Dolphins, who play tonight in New England, come to Orchard Park this Sunday for the Bills final home game of the season. The Drought will probably continue but there is still hope that they can squeak in to the playoffs although they will need help.

Monday, 4 December 2017

Partiots 23, Bills 3

Rob Gronkowski was born in Amherst, NY and grew up in Williamsville, NY, both Buffalo suburbs, and is considered by team-mates and others around the league to be a good and decent person. He attended the University of Arizona and was drafted in the second round of the 2010 NFL draft, 42nd overall, by the New England Patriots. At 6 feet, 6 inches, he is considered to be one of the most difficult tight ends to cover in the NFL. Gronkowski has become one of the most prolific pass receiving and touchdown scoring tight ends in league history. Against most defensive backs, his height, arm length and deceptive speed make him one of the most challenging coverage assignments possible. Bills rookie cornerback Tre'davious White stands 5 feet 11 inches tall but appears to be at least a foot shorter than Gronkowski. The cheap-shot hit in yesterday's game by Gronkowski against White, which sent White out of the game and into the "concussion protocol", will surely earn him a suspension of at least one game. After the game, he apologized for the hit, chalking it up to frustration about referees' calls over the past seven years. Because he is so difficult to cover, Gronkowski claims that he is regularly interfered with by those trying to cover him and that the penalty calls are often not made. On the other hand, he claims that he is often called for penalties, like offensive pass interference, which no other tight end in the league ever is. He is also known to post images in social media of himself and his various porn-star girlfriends. Like him or not, it is too bad that the Bills didn't draft him. Instead, ahead of him in the 2010 draft, they took running back CJ Spiller at No. 9 overall and nose tackle Torrel Troup just ahead of Gronknowski at No. 41 overall. Neither is on the Bills roster now.

The Bills played a decent first half yesterday and could have easily been up 10-9 at the break had Tyrod Taylor not thrown an egregious interception to conclude the otherwise impressive first offensive drive of the game. But, in the third quarter, the Patriots took control of the game and coasted to what became another relatively easy win for them at New Era Field. They are the clear favourites, once again, to go another Superbowl in February. If they do, it will be their 8th in the Brady/Belichick era. The Steelers look to have the best shot at unseating them this season with a head-to-head match-up slated for December 17th.

When CBS announced in the summer that Tony Romo would replace Phil Simms as the network's lead colour analyst, alongside Jim Nantz doing play-by-play, it smacked a little of desperation. Admittedly, Simms had been weak for years and needed to be shuffled along somewhere (he ended up on the CBS studio team) but the selection of Romo as the network's lead colour man, with no broadcasting experience at all, seemed odd. Now, with three quarters of a season under his belt - and having watched several games with him doing colour - I am prepared to say that not only is he absolutely outstanding in the role, I firmly believe that he is the best football colour commentator I have ever heard. He is insightful (which isn't a surprise given that he was the starting quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys just last season), he is chatty without being the slightest bit irritating, timely in his situational analysis and able to explain player emotions from each team's perspective. He is so comfortable in his role that it seems amazing that he has been on the job for only about 13 weeks. Romo had his moments - good and bad - as the Cowboys quarterback but he has found his true calling as a television colour analyst.

The Bills are still in the thick of the AFC wildcard race, despite the season feeling like it's slipping away. At 6-6, three of the next four games - one against Indianapolis and two against the Dolphins - are definitely winnable. They play at New England on Christmas Eve in week 16. The Patriots may have home field locked up by then but probably not so a 9-7 finish is easily within reach and could possibly be enough to secure the final wildcard spot but probably won't be. The Drought will continue.

    

Monday, 27 November 2017

Bills 16, Chiefs 10

I'm sure that they had a great time on the three week vacation they decided to take but I for one was very happy to see that the Bills defence decided to make the trip to Kansas City in time for yesterday's game at Arrowhead Stadium. After giving up 101 points over the previous two games, yesterday the Chiefs were held to 10 points, 55 yards rushing and only 236 yards in total. Tyrod Taylor played another of his trademark games going 19 for 29 passing for a modest but efficient 181 yards and zero interceptions. This was a game played almost entirely without turnovers until rookie cornerback Tre'Davious White intercepted Alex Smith with less than two minutes remaining to seal the Bills first and only win in the month of November. It was the first pick thrown by Smith at home this year and only his fourth of the season overall. The Bills and Chiefs now own the same 6-5 records but panic levels in Missouri are surely rising now that the Chiefs have fallen off so much after getting off to a 5-0 start. The Bills, on the other hand remain a bit of a mystery but looked orders of magnitude better yesterday than they have in their three previous games.

In Canadian football, it was a clean sweep this weekend for me, being a resident of Toronto and an alumnae of Western University. I also happen to be an over-the-air television viewer which means I receive television signals with a sophisticated HD antenna (hey, I paid over $100 for it) and I do not receive bills from any cable or satellite company. Another thing I do not receive is TSN or any other channel which the CRTC or the FCC does not require to broadcast over-the-air. Yes, I miss out on the Blue Jays, the Raptors and mid-week Leaf games but I do get the full spectrum of American football (except on Monday nights), TVO and endless Law and Order re-runs on a network called ION Television which I tune in on channel 51.1. Canadian football is another thing I don't get - which usually isn't a big deal for me. Until it comes to the Grey Cup. I guess I've been either at the cottage or at a friend's place over recent years but last night, I was shut out completely and saw only Steve Paikin's Twitter photos and game updates as the Argos captured the Grey Cup in its 105th iteration in snowy Ottawa. Instead, I was watching the end of the Rams/Saints game and then I caught the first half of the Steelers/Packers game.

Bell Globe Media could, if they wanted, show the Grey Cup game on the main CTV network but they decide to limit it to its sports cable property and exclusive CFL rights holder, TSN. It's their prerogative for sure and I have no doubt that if they thought that they could attract a higher combined viewership between TSN and CTV by showing the Grey Cup on both networks, they would do so. But it still pisses me off that I can't see it without a cable or satellite subscription. Same goes for the Vanier Cup which was played in Hamilton on Saturday afternoon where the Western Mustangs captured their first championship since 1994. I'm not saying that I would have watched the whole game but I would have caught some of it for sure instead of American college football which filled the airwaves on Saturday as teams battled it out for one of the four playoff spots up for grabs. In Canada, if you want to watch Canadian football, you need to have a business relationship with Bell, Rogers or Shaw. And I choose not to have such a relationship. I have had them before and they have ended badly.

The New England Patriots make their annual trip to Orchard Park on Sunday. It usually doesn't end well for Bills fans. But a win this weekend would go a long way to continuing the regaining of the credibility of head coach Sean McDermott whose goodwill among the fan base was largely dashed after last week's Nathan Peterman debacle. The Patriots have won seven straight games now and will present a massive challenge for the Bills defence. If they can build at all on yesterday's strong performance, get a key turnover or two and if the Bills offence can run the ball effectively and keep it out of Brady's hands for as long as possible, they will have a chance. These things are always said about a football team before a game where they look to be outmatched. At least I won't need to worry about being able to get the game on TV.

 

Monday, 20 November 2017

Chargers 54, Bills 24

At least the Bills didn't lose as badly as the Acadia Axemen did. After the Michigan game was out of hand on Saturday afternoon, I noticed that the Uteck Bowl was on and, since my alma mater was playing in the game, I decided to check it out. The score when I flipped to it, which I thought was a typo at first, read Western 74, Acadia 3. The Mustangs went on to score another touchdown - just to be sure I guess - making the final score in Wolfville, N.S. 81-3. Western will face the Laval Rouge et Or, winners of the Mitchell Bowl, in the Vanier Cup in Hamilton on Saturday.

As bad as Acadia's run defence was on Saturday (and it was pretty bad), Nathan Peterman's first half of football as an NFL starting quarterback was arguably worse. I think what we saw was the extreme swinging of the pendulum from the conservative play of Tyrod Taylor through his first two and a half seasons as Bills quarterback to a young player who thought he would try tossing the ball all over the yard in order to distinguish himself from his predecessor. Well, he threw it all over the yard alright and proved that if you throw 5 interceptions in the first half, your team will be down by 30 points by the time the coach benches you in favour of the guy they benched to give you a shot. Ball protection has been Tyrod Taylor's signature trait in his career in Buffalo and it is one which I value this morning more then ever. He settles for too many check-downs; he's afraid to throw the ball down the field; he relies on his legs too much, he needs to open up the passing game and take some chances......these have been the Tyrod Taylor naysayers criticisms. I, for one, love his instinct for ball protection and, yes I wish he could generate some bigger plays in the passing game but his ability to avoid the disastrous play has served him and his team well - even if the fans and the coaching staff haven't fully appreciated it.

I have no idea what Sean McDermott is going to do next week going into Kansas City. He stuck his neck out by making the quarterback switch last week and it backfired spectacularly. Will he double down and give Peterman another shot or does he chalk it up to a failed experiment and stick with Taylor? He certainly has the confidence of ownership so his view on the question will be at least be medium term if not long term. My guess is that Peterman starts again on Sunday at Arrrowhead. It just seems like Taylor now has no shot at being under centre in Buffalo in 2018 with a strong quarterback class in next spring's draft and the Bills improving their draft position with each passing week. So, if they still want to see what they have in Peterman - recognizing that one really bad half can not define a player - then giving him another shot is the logical decision. When they were at 5-2, the goal was to make the playoffs for the first time in 17 years. Now, even though they are theoretically very much in the hunt for a wildcard spot, it feels like the season is slipping away with 3 lop-sided losses since beating the Raiders. It should be said that the real elephant in the Bills locker room is the defence which appears to be entirely unable to stop the run. Maybe Marcel Dareus would have helped over these past 3 weeks.

Back to Canadian football which now moves into its final week. Thanks to the best traveling fans in the CFL, the Toronto Argonauts drew just under 25,000 at BMO Field for the Eastern Final where the visiting Green Rider fans left disappointed after their team came all the way back only to lose at the end. So, the Grey Cup in Ottawa will be the Argos against the Calgary Stampeders - the same match-up as the very first Grey Cup game I can remember in 1971 where the Joe Theisman led Argos fell short of winning the game on a late fumble near the Stampeder goal line by Leon "X-Ray" McQuay at a rainy Empire Stadium in Vancouver.

I'm siting inside the cottage as I write this. It sure looks like winter in the early morning twilight with the temperature at minus 7 and light snow falling on the 10cm we already have from the night before. The woodstove is pumping out the heat, a pot of tea made and the porridge is on. We will hike around the lake and sauna before we leave today. Who cares about football anyway?

 

   

Monday, 13 November 2017

Saints 47, Bills 10

We were already on the 219 headed north toward downtown Buffalo and the Peace Bridge when John Murphy, radio play-by-play announcer for the Bills, read off some statistics from the disastrous first three quarters of yesterday's debacle in Orchard Park. The one which stood out for me was the first downs earned by each team: The Saints had 30 and the Bills had 4, including none at all in the third quarter. I have heard football pundits who have run out of topics to address speculate about how the best college football team might fare against even the worst NFL team and yesterday's box score comes close to what they predicted. One even said that it would be extremely difficult for a college team's offence to get any first downs against an NFL defence. Well, yesterday the Bills ended up with 10 of them after Nathan Peterson mopped up at quarterback in garbage time. The box score through  three quarters accurately reflected the ugliness for Bills fans.

The game started well enough for the home crowd with LeSean McCoy ripping off a 35 yard run on the second play from scrimmage and then Tyrod Taylor got the Bills deep in Saints territory with a 13 yard keeper before the drive stalled and the Bills settled for a field goal and an early lead. Apart from the Bills defence recovering a Saints fumble later in the first quarter, the rest of the game film should be erased in its entirety. The Saints offence was a well-oiled machine, gaining almost 300 yards on the ground with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara both going over 100 yards each. When he wasn't handing the ball off to either running back, Drew Brees, who found the Buffalo pass rush to be virtually undetectable, was able to pass for a pedestrian sounding 184 yards, easily and repeatedly finding open receivers for first downs. Turns out that the Saints punter needn't have even bothered to dress for the game - or make the trip to Western New York at all as his services were not required. Not even once. That's right, apart from the first quarter turnover and kneel downs at the end of the game and the end of the first half, every Saints drive resulted in points.

Our strategy of waiting for a colder weather game with more importance and the excitement and pressure of the Bills trying to keep pace with the Patriots in the division or at least stay in the hunt in the AFC wildcard playoff race, didn't work. At least not in terms of seeing a competitive game. The stadium was as quiet as I can remember it and I've been there about 60 times over the last 30 years. If the comeback game - the Miracle at Rich - in January, 1993 was the best game I've ever seen live, yesterday's was probably the worst one. We left with about 8 minutes remaining in the third quarter and John Murphy was describing the final few painful seconds of the game as we were just about to drive across the Peace Bridge. On the bright side, at least it made for an easy exit from the parking lot, no waiting at the border and an early arrival home. I half-heartedly hoped that the Broncos might upset the Patriots last night and preserve a slim chance for the Bills to catch them in the division with two head-to-head games still to come in December. I think I'm dreading those games now.

I have noticed in recent years - I guess since 9/11 - that US Border Patrol officers have an amazing ability to ask a question, every time I cross, which I have never been asked before. It seems hard to believe because how many different questions are there to ask of 2 men in their mid-50's, decked out in Bills gear at 9am on a Sunday at the Lewiston crossing? "What is your citizenship?", "Where are you going?", "What are you bringing with you?" We always get those questions but then there is always a question which I presume is designed to take us out of our comfort zone in order to see how we respond in terms of the actual answer or our body language, or if we pause before answering or look or seem uncomfortable in some way. During the outbreak of Mad Cow Disease, we were regularly asked if we were bringing beef in the USA. A few years ago, one officer asked repeatedly if either of us had ever been arrested. Yesterday, we were asked a question I have definitely never been asked at a border crossing before. After advising the officer that we had 6 cans of beer with us, with a look of curiosity he asked "Is that going to be enough?". I think it was a rhetorical question but the irony of course is that it wasn't nearly enough.