Jaguars 10, Bills 3

The play which ended the Bills season was an interception thrown by Nathan Peterman and one which, with application of a strict interpretation of the meaning of a catch by the league officials in New York, could have been ruled incomplete on review. A fitting last play on both counts. I still held on to the fantasy that Peterman would be given another shot which would be a touchdown pass to Zay Jones to tie the game. But I also thought that if the Bills had won yesterday, they would have carried that momentum to Foxborough and dethroned the Patriots. Then the Steelers. Then the Vikings. They just fell a few steps short is all.

This was an infuriating game to watch for fans of both teams and probably only those with large wagers on the under found any satisfaction in it. Although the defences looked competent yesterday - if not quite good at times - the anemic performances by both offences made for generally excruciating playoff football viewing for those who made it all the way through. With the exception of a fourth down strike for the game's only touchdown, Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles looked like a recent call-up from the practice squad until he realized that running was really his best option. Tyrod Taylor looked a bit more polished for his part but with a receiving corps which is barely NFL worthy, he was unable to engineer the kind of scoring threat that wins NFL games. I wonder if his last play in a Buffalo uniform will turn out to be the one which knocked him from the game after his head was slammed backwards into the turf, and making way for Peterman who did what he has shown that he does best.

The Bills have a load of draft picks over the next two years, including picks 21 and 22 in the first round of this April's draft. I expect that one of those will be a quarterback. If Taylor does leave the team this off-season, I will remember him as someone who comported himself with dignity and professionalism in a Bills uniform - sometimes in the face of intense criticism. When he was benched in Los Angeles a few weeks ago, he handled it like a pro and went on to play well for the rest of the season. And - I will say this quite possibly for the final time - he always protected the ball and I always loved him for that. Speaking of professionalism, yesterday was probably the last game for Kyle Williams who wanted to retire a year ago. He has been the anchor of the defensive line since 2003 and will be missed.

Now that it's done, the 2017 Bills season has to be rated as a success with a drought-breaking trip to the playoffs even after appearing to opt early on for a rebuild strategy by jettisoning top players for draft picks. The current coaching staff and general manager have changed the culture for the better and Bills fans will be looking for more progress next year. I for one will want to see evidence that a division title (and the home playoff game that goes with it) is within reach. 

A note on television advertising: I watch on an HD antenna so during NFL football games, I get the US network commercials, many of which are not carried on Canadian simulcasts that most viewers see (but most Canadian sports fans will have seen the ads on other broadcasts). Without using any proper methodology but based on ads I have seen broadcast during this NFL season, I have concluded that the most competitive industry in America has to be property and casualty insurance. Nationwide has a series of spots this season with Peyton Manning and Brad Paisley; State Farm uses Aaron Rodgers and Clay Mathews; Progressive doesn't use football players but has featured "Flo" since 2008 and everyone knows that no US insurance company has a larger advertising budget than GEICO. The combined annual network television spending of these four firms alone is obviously massive and I wonder if one of them might consider unilaterally disarming from some of its television spending and actually offering lower insurance rates instead. If 15 minutes can save you 15% or more on car insurance, imagine how much you could save with a company that you've never heard of and that doesn't spend many tens of millions (or more) on television advertising.

Look for one more post this season: the Superbowl edition on February 5th.

Bengals 31, Ravens 27

Our New Year's Eve dinner at the cottage was literally being served with the guests seated and hungry after I had prolonged the sit-down time through the end of the Bills game in Miami and the last few excruciating minutes of what looked like a Ravens come-back against a Cincinnati team which was motivated by playing a spoiler role and by winning what was likely to be the last game for their popular and long-tenured coach Marvin Lewis. "This is the last play right here" I said as the Bengals lined up for a desperate and probably game-ending fourth down and 12 at mid-field, trailing the Ravens by three points. Then Andy Dalton hit a wide open Tyler Boyd who raced to the endzone for the Bengal touchdown. It was amazing. But it wasn't the last meaningful play of the game as the Bengal defence had to hold the Ravens who needed a touchdown to win.  And the Bengal defence held indeed. Incredibly, they defeated the Ravens in Baltimore and by so doing eliminated them while sending the Buffalo Bills to the NFL playoffs for the first time since the Music City Miracle in Nashville in January, 2000.

I spent a bit of time on this New Year's Day morning trying to figure out why the Los Angeles Chargers did not earn the sixth and final seed in the AFC playoff picture but could not find the answer. They ended the season with the same 9-7 record as the Bills but held the head-to-head tie-breaker against them by virtue of their win in LA on November 19th in what Bills fans have come to know as the Nathan Peterman debacle. Maybe the tie-breaker works differently when multiple teams are tied - as they were with the Bills, Chargers, Ravens and Titans (who earned the fifth seed) all finishing the season tied at 9-7. Whatever. They're in and there is a Bills playoff game to be played on Sunday in Jacksonville. The Jaguars are early seven point favourites.

Before the Dalton to Boyd touchdown, the Bills had taken care of business in Miami with a strong game which was not as close as the final score of 22-16 would indicate. Tyrod Taylor continued his improved passing and the defence bent but didn't break. LeSean McCoy went down with an ankle injury which looked bad enough to keep him out for at least the next week but I am confident (pure speculation here) that he will be back for the Superbowl - if not the AFC Championship Game. McCoy or not, I like the Bills chances going into Jacksonville as the Jaguars are new to the idea of having a home playoff game and all of the pressure and fan expectations which go along with it. The Bills will be loose and irreverent as they look to extend their season with a win next week and earn a trip to either Foxborough or Pittsburgh the following week. I have virtually no confidence that they can win in either of those places but it would be fun to have a shot.

The NFL has had a very difficult season on a number of fronts as we all know. The commissioner recently pointed out that television ratings for NFL games this season are only down 1% from last year but he did not address the fact that there has been a much larger drop in actual in-stadium game attendance across the league. The Bills had good crowds for almost all of their eight home games this year but I was quite surprised to notice that most of the upper deck at M & T Bank Stadium in Baltimore was empty yesterday. Yes it was very cold by normal Maryland standards and it was late start which meant that most of the game was played after dark but this was a game where the home team simply had to win to get in to the playoffs and I would have expected much better fan support in Baltimore. Most NFL revenue is generated from its massive television audiences with stadium gate receipts well down the list of revenue line items but the in-stadium experience is one of the most appealing parts of the sport of football and the NFL. I don't like seeing swaths of empty seats any time but especially not for critically important later-season games with playoff births at stake.

It's been cold here in Muskoka. And I mean really cold. I arrived at 7.45am on Thursday morning with the outside temperature sitting at minus 33. Yesterday's high was minus 24. The skiing is squeaky and slow with little glide. The dog usually wants in after only a few minutes. One more sauna and cold plunge today before we leave tomorrow. Happy New Year. 

Patriots 37, Bills 16

The Bills played the Patriots almost evenly for almost three quarters of football yesterday in Foxborough, MA. The memory which most Bills fans will take away from this game is the fact that they should have gone to the locker room at halftime leading 17-13, rather than tied at 13 as they were. This was thanks to another virtually incomprehensible replay reversal - this time of a brilliant Kelvin Benjamin touchdown catch in the endzone in the closing seconds of the first half. But, as SI's Peter King pointed out, the NFL has micro-managed the replay function to the point of absurdity. Bill Cowher also discussed the play in great detail in the CBS studio yesterday. Cowher explained that a close and strict reading of the rule in terms of what constitutes a catch and what doesn't comes down to the meaning of "control" when a receiver is catching the ball, getting both feet down in bounds and perhaps switching which hand the ball is in when going to the ground. Cowher believes that the Benjamin catch should have stood as a touchdown because of his own interpretation of what constitutes control of the ball, compared to how the replay officials are interpreting it. He thought that Benjamin had control and retained control of the ball from the time it hit his hands - including the moment when he acrobatically got both feet down in bounds and tumbled to the ground. Yes the ball was moving in Benjamin's hands but, in Cowher's view, he had full "control"of the ball throughout the process. I still don't think that the Bills would have won the game even if they did have a four point lead at halftime. Other than a defensive touchdown on a very rare pick 6 thrown by Tom Brady, the Bills offence struggled mightily in the red zone and managed only three field goals. Sean McDermott's decision to try to long field goal on a fourth and one while trailing by a touchdown was a poor one and spelled the end for the Bills who were then steamrolled for two more touchdowns.

But a playoff birth for the Bills remains possible and the scenarios are not as far-fetched as they sometimes are with teams needing several games to end in ties and a certain team needing to score nine touchdowns etc. For the Bills, it's really quite simple: they need to win in week 17 in Miami and they also need either a Baltimore loss or losses by both Tennessee and the Los Angeles Chargers. Easy, right? Well, the Ravens, who play at home against the Bengals, control their own destiny and are in with a win without any help from other teams. Not likely that the Cincinnati Bengals will deny the Ravens a playoff birth. The Titans play at home to Jacksonville and are also in a "win and in" scenario without help from others. This one is more interesting because the Jaguars do have a remote shot at the second seed if the Steelers lose at home to Cleveland. And Jacksonville is a better team that the Titans are so a Jaguar win in Nashville is entirely possible. The Chargers play at home to an Oakland team with nothing to play for other than the traditional spoiler role after a very disappointing season. The Chargers win the tie-breaker against the Bills, having won their head-to-head match-up but lose the tie-breaker to the Titans based on conference records. For New Year's Eve, Go Bills and Go Bengals and/or Go Jaguars and Go Raiders.

The overnight snow has stopped as I sit here in north Toronto very early Christmas morning. We will have a safe passage to St. Catharines this morning I think as the highways will be plowed by the time we leave. Merry Christmas to those who celebrate it and happy two days off in any event to those who don't. 

Bills 24, Dolphins 16

Jay Cutler has one of the strongest throwing arms in the NFL. Yesterday in Orchard Park in conditions which were orders of magnitude better for football than they were a week earlier, he threw for 274 yards - a total which was about 50 yards more than Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor tallied on the day. Both teams put up 21 first downs and the Dolphins held the ball for just over 32 minutes while the Bills had it for just over 27 minutes. Miami had 349 total yards to the Bills 328. It was obviously an evenly matched game. The difference? Cutler threw three interceptions and Taylor threw none. I have gone on about this for three years now and yesterday's game proves my point once again: Tyrod Taylor avoids costly turnovers. This almost always allows his team to stay in games with a chance to win down the stretch. It's really quite simple. Nathan Peterman may turn out to be a perfectly serviceable NFL quarterback someday but, in stark contrast to Taylor, his start in Los Angeles a few weeks ago (I'm ignoring last week's blizzard game in this analysis) was a perfect example of how interceptions lead to losses. Cutler played well at times yesterday and the Dolphins running game was working well too but the turnovers were the differentiating factor between two relatively evenly matched teams. 

Yesterday also saw LeSean McCoy become the 30th player in NFL history to record 10,000 career rushing yards. Now in his ninth season, he has been very consistent. In six seasons with the Eagles, he racked up 6,792 rushing yards and with almost three seasons under his belt in Buffalo, he has 3,219 yards on the ground. McCoy is a gifted runner who poses the greatest threat when he breaks through the line to the "second level" of defenders (linebackers and safeties) where he can make tacklers miss like few others ever have. He is a kind of feast or famine running back because when he doesn't make it through the line, he is often dropped for a loss. A McCoy run is usually either good for 12 yards or minus 2 yards. He has a long way to go before he catches all-time NFL rushing leader Emmit Smith with 18,355 yards. 

I was checking on the Partiots game and stoking the sauna fire late yesterday afternoon and I left the game in the Steelers hands when the sauna reached the requisite 110 degrees celsius. The score was 24-16 for Pittsburgh in the fourth quarter and the Partiots were lining up to punt as I checked on it for the last time. I thought the Steelers would likely hang on and clinch home field for the AFC playoffs in the process. And the Bills would be headed to Foxborough two games behind the Patriots with two games to go and a theoretical, although slim, chance at a division title. But New England got a key late interception (have I mentioned that these are critically important?) in their own endzone to secure the win - a scenario which reminded me of the end of Superbowl XLIX where the Patriots intercepted Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson at the end of the game to turn a likely loss into a win. So, the Patriots and Steelers are both 11-3 now with the Patriots holding the key head-to-head tie-breaker. 

Now at 8-6, the Bills and their rookie head coach Sean McDermott are assured of avoiding a losing season which is something that few pundits foresaw in their pre-season predictions. NBC showed the Bills as occupying the 6th and final seed in the AFC playoff race last night and I presume that they crunched all of the tie-breaker numbers before doing so. Their destiny, in terms of making the NFL playoffs for the first time since 1999 and ending the Drought, therefore lies within their own hands. A trip to New England at this late and critical time of the season would not be anyone's first choice unless the Patriots had already wrapped up the first seed. But they still need to do that and the Bills therefore face a monumental challenge in week 16. If they can somehow pull out a win, they will have earned the right to a playoff birth in my mind.     

Bills 13, Colts 7, OT

I had prepared myself to type "Colts 8, Bills 7" this morning after the Colts successful two-point convert yesterday in what appeared to be Orchard Park, NY. There definitely was an NFL game played somewhere in the lee of the westward winds off Lake Erie but at times, on TV, it was hard to tell what was really happening. After I took a long walk in the snow here in Muskoka then had a nap, the official threw the flag which, after a long discussion, was determined to be for offensive pass interference on the two-point convert. It was then taken off the score board and the Colts were assessed a 10 yards penalty. What followed was an interesting rule interpretation because the Colts elected to kick the single point convert rather than try for two again. The 10 yard penalty was then correctly enforced from the 15 yard line where single point kicked converts are snapped from. This made Adam Venetieri's knuckle ball kick, which started right then corrected in mid-air, the equivalent of a 42 yard field goal. The Colts could have chosen to go for two again from the 12 and half yard line - after the enforcement of the 10 yard penalty. I was a little surprised that they elected to kick under those conditions but the decision proved right. Venetieri later missed what would have been a game-winning field goal a few minutes later.

The last snow game I can recall that is even remotely comparable to yesterday's was a Bills 8-0 loss to the Cleveland Browns on December 16, 2007 on the south shore of Lake Erie. The conditions in that game, which Sports Illustrated ranked as the third-best snow game of all time, were similar but with considerably less snow on the field than there was yesterday in Orchard Park. The game featured countless turnovers (which yesterday's game amazingly did not with only one) and generally inept play on both sides before Cleveland finally scored a late touchdown and a two-point convert.

I have been to several games over the years where snow flurries and squalls came through the stadium in waves, sometimes covering the field but never accumulating to very much. I have to say that I was glad to be watching the game from the comfort of my cottage where the outside conditions matched those at the stadium as it also snowed heavily for the entire game. But one of my friends, who claimed the Colts tickets months ago, was the lucky one, along with his son and another father-son duo, who experienced the blizzard which began during the tailgate party and carried on well past the end of overtime. If they stayed to see LeSean McCoy score the winning touchdown, then he will have earned himself a pair of tickets to a game next year. But it has to be in mid-December just to keep things fair. As they were leaving, he sent me a photo of his bar-b-que beside his car which was covered in what looked like about 18 inches of snow. I hope the drive home wasn't too bad. During the game, CBS showed the radar image of the lake effect snow bands which were pointed directly at Orchard Park but they were so localized that places like Grand Island, only a few miles to the north, were entirely clear of the snow.

Nathan Peterman got the start yesterday as Tyrod Taylor was out with a knee injury. He mostly handed the ball off but was able to connect with Kelvin Benjamin twice on the Bills first scoring drive before he was injured in the third quarter trying to dive for extra yardage on a broken play. In came Joseph Webb III (who, ironically, is also the third string quarterback on the depth chart) to finish the game. He looked tall, mobile and threw a great deep ball to Deonte Thompson to set up the winning touchdown. I'm not sure how useful any evaluation of players is in a snow game but, to me, Webb is worth another look at some point. So is Peterman I guess.

The NFL tie-breaking procedures are complex but for now, the Bills are seeded 8th, behind the Ravens (who occupy the 6th seed which does qualify for a wild-card playoff birth) and the Chargers. All three teams are 7-6 with three games remaining. The Maimi Dolphins, who play tonight in New England, come to Orchard Park this Sunday for the Bills final home game of the season. The Drought will probably continue but there is still hope that they can squeak in to the playoffs although they will need help.

Partiots 23, Bills 3

Rob Gronkowski was born in Amherst, NY and grew up in Williamsville, NY, both Buffalo suburbs, and is considered by team-mates and others around the league to be a good and decent person. He attended the University of Arizona and was drafted in the second round of the 2010 NFL draft, 42nd overall, by the New England Patriots. At 6 feet, 6 inches, he is considered to be one of the most difficult tight ends to cover in the NFL. Gronkowski has become one of the most prolific pass receiving and touchdown scoring tight ends in league history. Against most defensive backs, his height, arm length and deceptive speed make him one of the most challenging coverage assignments possible. Bills rookie cornerback Tre'davious White stands 5 feet 11 inches tall but appears to be at least a foot shorter than Gronkowski. The cheap-shot hit in yesterday's game by Gronkowski against White, which sent White out of the game and into the "concussion protocol", will surely earn him a suspension of at least one game. After the game, he apologized for the hit, chalking it up to frustration about referees' calls over the past seven years. Because he is so difficult to cover, Gronkowski claims that he is regularly interfered with by those trying to cover him and that the penalty calls are often not made. On the other hand, he claims that he is often called for penalties, like offensive pass interference, which no other tight end in the league ever is. He is also known to post images in social media of himself and his various porn-star girlfriends. Like him or not, it is too bad that the Bills didn't draft him. Instead, ahead of him in the 2010 draft, they took running back CJ Spiller at No. 9 overall and nose tackle Torrel Troup just ahead of Gronknowski at No. 41 overall. Neither is on the Bills roster now.

The Bills played a decent first half yesterday and could have easily been up 10-9 at the break had Tyrod Taylor not thrown an egregious interception to conclude the otherwise impressive first offensive drive of the game. But, in the third quarter, the Patriots took control of the game and coasted to what became another relatively easy win for them at New Era Field. They are the clear favourites, once again, to go another Superbowl in February. If they do, it will be their 8th in the Brady/Belichick era. The Steelers look to have the best shot at unseating them this season with a head-to-head match-up slated for December 17th.

When CBS announced in the summer that Tony Romo would replace Phil Simms as the network's lead colour analyst, alongside Jim Nantz doing play-by-play, it smacked a little of desperation. Admittedly, Simms had been weak for years and needed to be shuffled along somewhere (he ended up on the CBS studio team) but the selection of Romo as the network's lead colour man, with no broadcasting experience at all, seemed odd. Now, with three quarters of a season under his belt - and having watched several games with him doing colour - I am prepared to say that not only is he absolutely outstanding in the role, I firmly believe that he is the best football colour commentator I have ever heard. He is insightful (which isn't a surprise given that he was the starting quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys just last season), he is chatty without being the slightest bit irritating, timely in his situational analysis and able to explain player emotions from each team's perspective. He is so comfortable in his role that it seems amazing that he has been on the job for only about 13 weeks. Romo had his moments - good and bad - as the Cowboys quarterback but he has found his true calling as a television colour analyst.

The Bills are still in the thick of the AFC wildcard race, despite the season feeling like it's slipping away. At 6-6, three of the next four games - one against Indianapolis and two against the Dolphins - are definitely winnable. They play at New England on Christmas Eve in week 16. The Patriots may have home field locked up by then but probably not so a 9-7 finish is easily within reach and could possibly be enough to secure the final wildcard spot but probably won't be. The Drought will continue.

    

Bills 16, Chiefs 10

I'm sure that they had a great time on the three week vacation they decided to take but I for one was very happy to see that the Bills defence decided to make the trip to Kansas City in time for yesterday's game at Arrowhead Stadium. After giving up 101 points over the previous two games, yesterday the Chiefs were held to 10 points, 55 yards rushing and only 236 yards in total. Tyrod Taylor played another of his trademark games going 19 for 29 passing for a modest but efficient 181 yards and zero interceptions. This was a game played almost entirely without turnovers until rookie cornerback Tre'Davious White intercepted Alex Smith with less than two minutes remaining to seal the Bills first and only win in the month of November. It was the first pick thrown by Smith at home this year and only his fourth of the season overall. The Bills and Chiefs now own the same 6-5 records but panic levels in Missouri are surely rising now that the Chiefs have fallen off so much after getting off to a 5-0 start. The Bills, on the other hand remain a bit of a mystery but looked orders of magnitude better yesterday than they have in their three previous games.

In Canadian football, it was a clean sweep this weekend for me, being a resident of Toronto and an alumnae of Western University. I also happen to be an over-the-air television viewer which means I receive television signals with a sophisticated HD antenna (hey, I paid over $100 for it) and I do not receive bills from any cable or satellite company. Another thing I do not receive is TSN or any other channel which the CRTC or the FCC does not require to broadcast over-the-air. Yes, I miss out on the Blue Jays, the Raptors and mid-week Leaf games but I do get the full spectrum of American football (except on Monday nights), TVO and endless Law and Order re-runs on a network called ION Television which I tune in on channel 51.1. Canadian football is another thing I don't get - which usually isn't a big deal for me. Until it comes to the Grey Cup. I guess I've been either at the cottage or at a friend's place over recent years but last night, I was shut out completely and saw only Steve Paikin's Twitter photos and game updates as the Argos captured the Grey Cup in its 105th iteration in snowy Ottawa. Instead, I was watching the end of the Rams/Saints game and then I caught the first half of the Steelers/Packers game.

Bell Globe Media could, if they wanted, show the Grey Cup game on the main CTV network but they decide to limit it to its sports cable property and exclusive CFL rights holder, TSN. It's their prerogative for sure and I have no doubt that if they thought that they could attract a higher combined viewership between TSN and CTV by showing the Grey Cup on both networks, they would do so. But it still pisses me off that I can't see it without a cable or satellite subscription. Same goes for the Vanier Cup which was played in Hamilton on Saturday afternoon where the Western Mustangs captured their first championship since 1994. I'm not saying that I would have watched the whole game but I would have caught some of it for sure instead of American college football which filled the airwaves on Saturday as teams battled it out for one of the four playoff spots up for grabs. In Canada, if you want to watch Canadian football, you need to have a business relationship with Bell, Rogers or Shaw. And I choose not to have such a relationship. I have had them before and they have ended badly.

The New England Patriots make their annual trip to Orchard Park on Sunday. It usually doesn't end well for Bills fans. But a win this weekend would go a long way to continuing the regaining of the credibility of head coach Sean McDermott whose goodwill among the fan base was largely dashed after last week's Nathan Peterman debacle. The Patriots have won seven straight games now and will present a massive challenge for the Bills defence. If they can build at all on yesterday's strong performance, get a key turnover or two and if the Bills offence can run the ball effectively and keep it out of Brady's hands for as long as possible, they will have a chance. These things are always said about a football team before a game where they look to be outmatched. At least I won't need to worry about being able to get the game on TV.