Bills 18, Jets 10

When the Bills lose a game, I usually claim afterward to have had a "bad feeling" about the game before it started. I make that claim once again this morning. Although my concern was certainly real after they fell behind the hapless New York Jets 10-0, the bad feeling I had was that the game was going to be much closer than pundits and most Bills fans were predicting. Plenty of NFL games quickly turn into blowouts even between relatively evenly matched teams but it seems that when one team is heavily favoured over an opponent, particularly in a divisional game with the visiting team favoured by double digits, blowouts rarely ensue. Instead, a nail-biting game which isn't decided until the last couple of minutes of the fourth quarter is just as likely as a rout. 

Sports books favoured the Bills yesterday by between 9 and 11 points - the largest pre-game spread I can recall in a long time for a road game. Callers to WGR 550 last week declared that anything short of a decisive margin of 25 to 30 points against the Jets would be considered to be reason for concern. The Jets were clearly a team in turmoil at 0-6 going into the game. A schism between the head coach Adam Gase and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams flared up over the week with Gase at the top of the list of NFL coaches on the hot seat. Williams, a former Bills head coach from 2001 to 2003, would be the logical interim replacement for Gase. The Jets were reportedly shopping around quarterback Sam Darnold, picked third overall in the 2018 draft (the Bills selected Josh Allen seventh overall in the same draft), as trade bait given that the team has the inside track to draft Clemson star Trevor Lawrence. Credit is therefore due and owing to the Jets players who started the game strong and played a good first half before regressing to what had been expected of them all along. 

Is the absence of a touchdown on the Bills side of the boxscore reason for concern? Quite possibly but some of the other data points related to the Bills offensive performance were impressive even if they came against a team which might struggle to beat Clemson: 26 first downs, 126 rushing yards, 296 passing yards for Josh Allen with no interceptions thrown. On the negative side of the ledger, the Bills were flagged for 11 penalties for 106 total yards. A Josh Allen touchdown pass to Gabriel Davis was negated on an illegal formation penalty. 

There were at least two dangerous hits in the NFL yesterday. Bills safety Micah Hyde was flagged for his vicious hit on receiver Breshad Perriman late in the game. Hyde's perfectly timed hit broke up a long passing play but was delivered too high as he hit Perriman's neck and head area. Cowboys quarterback Andy Dalton lay motionless on the field for several minutes after taking a helmet-to-helmet hit from Washington linebacker Jon Bostic who was ejected from the game (and will likely face further sanctions from the league). The Bostic play was indefensible. Hyde's hit was tough to watch but players will always say just how difficult it is to pull up when running at full speed and trying to time their hit just as the ball arrives. Hyde did lead with his shoulder rather than with his helmet but I wish (and I hope he wishes) that he had hit Perriman in the chest or hips. 

Watching the pre-game NFL Today on a Detroit CBS affiliate yesterday, nine days before the US election, exposed us to an avalanche of elections commercials. If I were an undecided voter who did not follow the Michigan Senate race closely, watching these ads yesterday would have caused me to lose all faith in the two main candidates whose messages only attack each other without making any case for why their own candidacies should be considered. Apparently, neither candidate will protect those with pre-existing medical conditions and both candidates intend to line their own pockets if they go Washington. These television ads are costly - both in real dollars for the candidates and, I suggest, in further eroding faith in the political process among potential voters.  

Up next for the Bills: home to New England Patriots next Sunday November 1st. With Tom Brady gone and Cam Newton doing a relatively poor job in his place, the Patriots have looked like shadows of their former selves the past two weeks.     

Chiefs 26, Bills 17

When the score in last night's game at drizzly Bills Stadium was 20-10, Troy Aikman remarked that the score looked relatively close but that the game itself did not seem close at all. Although the Buffalo Bills were able to avoid a blowout on the scoreboard and appeared to have forced a turnover deep in Chiefs territory in the fourth quarter while down by only six points, the Chiefs held control over the game throughout. The fumble was correctly overruled on replay review and the Chiefs tacked on a late field goal to seal their win. 

Bills head coach Sean McDermott explained after the game that his team's defensive approach was to take away big plays down the field - almost a "prevent" defence - and make the Chiefs earn their points by way of the short passing game and the run. So, that's exactly what they did. The Bills strategy could have worked if their run defence had showed up at all and if the offence had been able to generate any sustained drives not aided by penalties. McDermott, when asked if he had considered loading the "box" with nine defenders (thereby leaving two wide receivers in man-to-man coverage on the outside), he said that teams who have tried that approach against the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes under centre regretted the strategy which lead to the Chiefs hanging more than 40 points on the board every time. The explanation made sense and the strategy could well have worked if the offence had done its part.

The Bills gave up 245 yards on the ground and had problems, once again, making plays against the run at the line of scrimmage. Chiefs rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the last pick in the first round (32nd overall) of the 2020 draft, was able to get to the second level of the Bills run defence far too often and piled up 161 yards in the process. Mahomes, for his part, did what he was asked to do within Andy Reid's game plan, adding 221 passing yards. The Chiefs gained 466 yards overall, compared to the Bills paltry 206. In the fourth quarter, two of the leaders on the Bills defence, cornerback Tre'Davious White and safety Jordan Poyer lost their composure and each was flagged for personal fouls for late hits out of bounds two play apart. On WGR, Mike Schopp described Poyer's out of bounds tackle as being "about 3 weeks late".  Last season, the Bills fielded a top-ranked defence but, as happens in the NFL more often than in any other sport, the players who were good a year ago have fallen into mediocrity. Look no further than Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson who tore up the league last year. This year? Not so much. At least not yet.

At 4-2, the Bills remain on top of the AFC East, one game ahead of the Ryan Fitzpatrick led Dolphins. Next week, they face the league's worst team in the New York Jets for the second time. They are early 11 point favourites and had better not stumble for a third consecutive week. The Jets are a mess at 0-6 but, with their season lost, will be loose and willing to take risks which contending teams wouldn't. Time for Josh Allen to find his accuracy again and for the running game to get back on track.

I watch television in two places: in Muskoka on a satellite service where the main US network affiliates come from Detroit and in Toronto on an HD antenna where the US channels originate in Buffalo. In the past couple of weeks, I estimate that I have seen at least 10 Biden ads for every one Trump ad. In fact, I don't think I've seen any Trump ads coming from Buffalo stations in the last few days which makes sense given that New York is a solidly blue state (and Trump has no chance there with the "winner take all" electoral college system). But Michigan, which Trump won four years ago, is a swing state and, all things being equal, I would have expected an even split of ads on the airwaves. But over the past three weeks, I have seen multiple reports that Trump's fund-raising has fallen off dramatically and that his campaign has cancelled previously booked television ad buys in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. The messaging on social media from the Biden campaign is now warning against complacency. The last Presidential debate is scheduled for Thursday as long as either of the candidates doesn't find a way to back out of it. 

Titans 42, Bills 16

Now that the 1972 Miami Dolphins have scratched the Buffalo Bills off their list of potential challengers to their record of an undefeated season, let's look back to another time that the Bills eliminated themselves from contention for this record. On October 7, 1991, the high-flying 5-0 Bills mailed in their second-worst performance of that season (second only to the ugly loss to Washington in the Superbowl) in prime time, before a national television audience on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs won the game 33-6, thanks to five Buffalo turnovers which highlighted an entirely uninspired performance by the Bills. Coach Marv Levy said after the game that in most football blow-outs, the difference between the teams is rarely as great as the score would suggest. I remember the game well. The Bills proceeded to cruise to a 13-3 regular season record which secured them home field advantage for the AFC playoffs and their second consecutive trip to the Superbowl. They were a dominant team which stumbled badly in that week 6 game but fully recovered.

I am not predicting a Superbowl birth this season but I do hope that the Bills will recover from last night's debacle in Nashville - the site of their most infamous meltdown in a playoff game 20 years ago when a play called Homerun Throwback ended their season after a playoff game appeared to be won. The schedule does not get easier from here. If, in retrospect, last night's stinker proves to have been a wake-up call, then Bills fans probably will see it as an anomaly in an otherwise successful season. But if the team's success over the first four weeks of the season fades to mediocrity or worse, the Tuesday in Tennessee will be seen as the turning point.

Despite some success moving the ball in the first half, the Bills looked un-prepared and rusty - which, as the CBS crew pointed out repeatedly on the broadcast, was what most were expecting from their opponents, a Titans team which had not played in 16 days, has been ravaged by positive COVID tests and locked out of their practice facility for most of the time since their last game. After a 9-7 regular season, the Titans, had a strong playoff run last season which took them to the AFC Championship game. Coming into the game at 3-0, they looked sharp and dominant. Ryan Tannehill in particular, after languishing for seven seasons with the Dolphins, looked like a Pro Bowl quarterback and had a flawless game last night. Signed two years ago as almost an afterthought by the Titans, he has clearly found his stride in the Music City. 

Josh Allen, on the other had, looked more like he did in 2018 than he has over the past four weeks. His two interceptions were both due to inaccurate or ill-conceived throws. The team's discipline was questionable as they took a season-high 10 penalties, many of which, like false starts and illegal shifts on offence, were obviously the result of mental errors. After their win over the Raiders the previous week, the Bills probably suffered to some extent from having the identity of their next opponent in question as the Titans continued to teeter on the precipice of a second postponed game as they battled the virus. The Bills were scheduled to play the Chiefs at home tomorrow night and the coaching staff would have prepared the team for a short week before the schedule was adjusted. This of course isn't really an excuse as the Titans had similar or more difficult challenges.

Up next for the Bills: a re-match from 29 years ago - Monday Night Football against the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs. Only this time, the game will be played in Orchard Park. New York State still has not authorized any fan attendance for Bills games. Last night in Nashville, attendance was 8,403 which is a number more in line with the average-sized crowd at a top-tier Friday night Tennessee high school game in usual times. Look for Sean McDermott to have his team ready to resume the season's trajectory set over the first four weeks.   

Daylight Saving Time Year-Round? I'll Vote No

 

Three weeks from now, as we settle in to the first week of November, we will have set our clocks back one hour as most of us in North America have been doing since the early 20^th century. Our return to Standard Time means more daylight in the morning – as in, an earlier sunrise – but for the next four months, late afternoon darkness will descend on us around 5pm.

We now observe Standard Time for only a bit more than a third of the year and for the remainder – between the first week of March and early November – our clocks are set to what we call Daylight Saving Time (DST). A construct of the World War 1 period, DST was initially created to save energy. Proponents also point to certain safety benefits and to some economic advantages related to recreation. Before the advent of DST, we remained on Standard Time year-round.

Jeremy Roberts, Ontario MPP for the riding of Ottawa West-Nepean, introduced a Private Member’s Bill (Bill 214) in the Legislature on October 7^th. It proposes that Ontario abolish Standard Time and remain on DST year-round. We tend to hear much more griping when we “spring forward” by setting our clocks ahead one hour in March (thereby losing an hour’s sleep) than we do in November when we gain it back. It certainly seems like a pain-in-the-ass adjusting our clocks and our circadian rhythms twice annually and the idea of scrapping the current twice yearly practice of switching between DST and Standard Time seems to have both popular support and a measure of political support too as the Ontario government has indicated that it just might support the bill. As with many seemingly simple and logical ideas, the devil is in the details so before we all proclaim our agreement to scrap Standard Time altogether, let’s look at what it would mean.

After we switch to Standard Time at 2am on Sunday November 1^st, on the following day, Monday November 2^nd, in Toronto, the sun will rise just before 7am and will set just after 5pm. We will have 10 hours of daylight and 14 hours of darkness. Fast forward to the winter solstice on December 21^st and our daylight hours are reduced to less than nine hours with sunrise at 7.50am and sunset at 4.43pm. In the days leading up to Christmas, most of us, if we still go to work at all, will be doing so in morning daylight and then returning home in late afternoon darkness. Children making their way to and from school will enjoy daylight for each leg of their journey.

Were we to remain on DST through the dark winter months, as Bill 214 proposes, morning daylight would then come an hour later. In Toronto, between November and March, that would mean darkness until almost 9am with most commuters and students completing their morning journeys before daybreak. Yes, evening darkness would come an hour later as well with the December 21^st sunset coming at 5.43pm – before most commuters have arrived home anyway.

I, for one, am an early riser. I like morning daylight and would prefer not to wait until 9am before I see it. For me, that’s more than just another reason not to move to Edmonton (although I would enjoy having summer sunlight last until well after 10pm). It seems to me that Standard Time during the darkest months of the year offers the most judicious use of our nine or 10 hours of daylight. It allows for safe and well-lit travel to and from school for children even if the afternoon commute home for workers is done mostly in darkness. Changing the few battery or wind-up clocks I have somehow feels like a right-of-passage which marks the changing of the seasons. Besides, when else would we know to change the batteries in our smoke alarms?

The most reasonable part of Bill 214 is its provision that no abolition of Standard Time will take place in Ontario unless two of our important neighbouring jurisdictions – Quebec and New York State – also agree to scrap it. This may come one day. If it ever does, I plan to personally continue with Standard Time between November and March. If I’ve agreed to meet with you at any time over the winter, I’ll be an hour late so adjust your schedule accordingly.

I’ll post next on Wednesday after the Corona Bowl, also known as the World Premiere of NFL Tuesday Night Football. If the game goes ahead.   

   

Bills 30, Raiders 23

Last Monday September 28th, several members of the Las Vegas Raiders attended a charity event at the DragonRidge Country Club in Henderson, Nevada. It was a fund-raiser for a charitable foundation created by Raiders tight end Darren Waller. Photos emerged the following day of Raiders players mingling with guests - all of whom were unmasked. Seems like the State of Nevada either doesn't really take the pandemic seriously or doesn't need the money (or probably both) as DragonRidge was fined a whopping $2,000 for violating two of the state's new pandemic rules: the requirement to wear masks at indoor public gatherings and to not have more than 50 people congregated at an indoor event. Compare that fine to the ones handed out by the NFL to Raiders coach Jon Gruden for not wearing his mask properly during a week two game against the Saints. He was personally fined $100,000 and the Raiders were hit for $250,000. At times in yesterday's game against the Bills (particularly in the fourth quarter), Gruden committed the same offence which may generate larger fines this time around.

The talk on WGR radio in Buffalo on Wednesday and Thursday was about the possibility that one or more of the Raiders players who attended the event may have been exposed to the coronavirus and then may have infected some of those teammates who did not attend the event as all Raiders players were in attendance at team meetings and practices from Tuesday onward. But no positive tests emerged within the Raiders organization throughout the week and the game at the brand spanking new Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada went ahead. And the Bills won to go 4-0 for the first time since 2008.

Next week's scheduled game is another story as the Bills will likely not be able to dodge the virus again as they are scheduled to travel to Nashville to play the Titans. A total of 20 positive tests within the Tennessee organization - 10 players and 10 staff - were confirmed last week. The Titans were scheduled to play the Steelers yesterday but the league had to postpone the game to a yet unknown date. If the Titans v. Bills does not go ahead on Sunday, re-scheduling options become much more limited. The possibility of pushing the game to Monday night or Tuesday is off the table as the Bills are set to host the Chiefs on Thursday October 15th. One scenario floated last night is that the NFL could simply add another week to its season - a week 18 - to complete the schedule for games which have already been postponed and for future postponed games this season - which seems like a virtual certainty. As of this morning, those 10 Titans players and Cam Newton of the Patriots are the only NFL players to have tested positive. It almost seems delusional to think that there won't be more. A week 19 and 20 or more may be needed. The Superbowl could be played on a warm spring day somewhere. Since the game will likely have no fans in attendance, maybe they could find a suitable spot somewhere in Nevada's Area 51.

Josh Allen did not pass for 300 yards yesterday for the first time this season. But he did not turn the ball over either and showed continued passing accuracy and poise. He caused Bills fans a bit of a angst late in the first half with what turned out to be a left shoulder injury he suffered on a hard tackle just as he unloaded a left-handed shovel pass to Stefon Diggs. After a quick trip to the locker room, Allen was back and finished the game. He said that he knew right away that it wasn't a collar bone which would have sidelined him for several weeks. A quarter of the way through the season, Allen is very much in the league MVP conversation. 

In a season where defences around the league seem to have taken a couple of steps back, the Bills were able to close out the Raiders yesterday only when the defence finally stiffened in the second half. They were able to pressure Raiders quarterback Derek Carr and forced three fumbles, recovering two of them. A late score allowed the Raiders a chance at an onside kick which was bobbled but recovered by the Bills to seal the win. 

As Jerry Sullivan, ever the glass half-empty Buffalo-based sports writer pointed out last night, in 2008, the last time the Bills started 4-0, they finished the season 7-9 under Dick Jauron who, as Sullivan also said a decade ago, "strings up 7-9 seasons like Christmas lights on his house". I highly doubt that Sean McDermott will be stringing up any of Jauron's lights come December. Instead, he has started and I predict will continue to string up playoff appearances which will hopefully soon include a string of home playoff games in January (or, this year, maybe February or even March). 

     

Bills 35, Rams 32

I am convinced that Josh Allen awoke yesterday morning with an unwavering determination to be the deciding factor in the afternoon game against the Los Angeles Rams at Bills Stadium in Orchard Park. He must have decided that, either way, win or lose, however it all turns out by around 4pm, that the final score in the game was to be because of his play between the lines. Speaking of lines, Allen is able, like no other quarterback I have seen, to straddle the line between brilliant and reckless. This season, he has clearly stepped up the brilliance but, true to form, just when Bills fans sense that he may have moved away from his reckless tendencies, he plants a foot on the reckless side of the line. Then another foot. And another. It seems that its just who he is. 

NFL rewind on the NFL Network replays the most exciting games from the previous Sunday over the course of the following week. There were some good ones to choose from yesterday (Cowboys v Seahawks, Packers v. Saints) but I think that the tilt between the Rams and Bills will make its way on to the NFL Network prime time schedule this coming week. There was obviously no other game yesterday which featured (1) the winning quarterback taking a face-masking penalty and then an unsportmanlike conduct penalty on what was the winning drive, (2) the losing team piling up 28 first downs and 478 yards of offence, or (3) an "interception" (Allen's first and only one this season through three games) where the receiver (Bills tight end Tyler Kroft) clearly makes the catch, has possession as he goes to the ground, then ends up in a situation which would be ruled a "jump ball" in basketball. FOX NFL rules analyst Mike Pereira disagreed with the ruling which was then upheld on review. Later, he agreed with what looked to be a questionable defensive pass interference call against the Rams which set up the Bills winning touchdown.  

I had the pleasure of attending what is known in Buffalo as "The Comeback Game" in January of 1993 when the Bills erased a 35-3 deficit and came back to win a playoff game against the Houston Oilers. I was thinking about that game as the Bills built a lead almost as lop-sided as the Oilers had and then, like the Oilers did on that January day 27 years ago, blew it and found themselves trailing late in the fourth quarter. Unlike the 1993 Oilers, Josh Allen and the Bills were able to generate one more touchdown to eek out the win before an audience of trainers and coaches in an otherwise empty Bills stadium. We almost left the game early in the second half in 1993 but agreed to stick it out until the end of the third quarter. Thousands of others didn't. No one needed to worry about that yesterday.

For casual sports fans, the rules of football can be baffling. I consider myself to be much more than a casual fan but yesterday, I found myself baffled by the non-call on what was clearly a horse-collar tackle on Josh Allen. He was obviously baffled too as he took that unsportsmanlike conduct penalty in reaction to it. FOX commentator and former quarterback Brock Huard pointed out on the broadcast that the horse-collar tackle rule excludes this particular tackle against a quarterback in the pocket. At the time, I made a mental note to look that up because it made no sense. It still makes no sense to me but I did look it up and Huard is correct: the rule does not apply to a runner in the tackle box or to a quarterback in the pocket. I can not think of why.

Speaking of FOX, I was amused by the promotion of the first presidential debate which is scheduled for tomorrow (Tuesday). The debate was promoted like a heavy-weight boxing match and will be moderated by FOX's Chris Wallace who was referred to on the promotion as America's best journalist. As the son of the famous Mike Wallace, he clearly has solid pedigree and is the only FOX News personality I can think of with legitimate journalistic integrity. I read some analysis recently which suggested that the televised debates, while they generate large viewing audiences, do not move the needle very much in terms of swaying voters; rather, they are mostly watched by those who are already firmly planted in their red or blue corners. Sort of like when I watch a Bills game. I am rooting for my team to win. No matter how well the opposing team plays, or how poorly mine does, there is zero chance that I will switch allegiance to the other team because of what happens in the game. Move over Malcolm Gladwell. My mind is made up.  

Bills 31, Dolphins 28

I wrote about Ryan Fitzpatrick in this space last season and I'm going to do that again now because his NFL career continues to be equal parts remarkable and enduring. This is Fitzpatrick's 16th season in the league after being picked by the St. Louis Rams in the seventh round of the 2005 NFL draft. He was the 250th overall pick and the last of 14 quarterbacks to be drafted that year. He signed with his eighth NFL team - the Miami Dolphins - in March of 2019.

When partnered with Chan Gailey, the current offensive co-ordinator of the Dolphins, Fitz seems to be at his best. The partnership has three chapters: first in Buffalo from 2010 to 2012 where Fitzpatrick was the starting quarterback and Gailey the head coach, second with the Jets in 2015 and 2016 where Gailey was offensive co-ordinator and now in 2020, after Gailey had been out of the league for three entire seasons, they are re-united. Gailey has a long track record as an effective play-caller who designs offences according to the strengths of the personnel at hand, rather than according to a particular philosophy. CBS NFL colour commentator Adam Archuleta reported that Gailey was quite surprised to receive a call from Dolphins head coach Brian Flores early this year to canvass his interest in the job he now holds.  

The partnership between these two obviously works quite well. But not well enough to achieve real success. Together, they have never really come close to the playoffs, nor have they ever even enjoyed a winning record together in any particular season. Fitzpatrick seems to bounce around amongst the league's bottom feeders while Gailey has had two unsuccessful stints as an NFL head coach along with his long tenure as a co-ordinator. Fitzpatrick has always been able to lead teams to the threshold of important wins but usually falls just short. His trademark has unfortunately often been a critical and devastating late-game interception to seal defeat. While he doesn't produce wins, he comes agonizingly close. Like yesterday. Predictably, the Fitzmagic did not carry through to success with the on-side kick his team needed after a late touchdown which brought them to within a field goal of the Bills. But the Dolphins, with Gailey and Fitzpatrick, are now 0-2 and likely headed for another high draft pick in the spring. 

Through two games this season, Josh Allen has more than 700 passing yards, 6 touchdown passes and no interceptions. In year three, it seems like he has made the big step forward that Bills fans were hoping for. Move over JP Losman, Trent Edwards, EJ Manuel, Tyrod Taylor and Nathan Peterman. Allen has now established himself as the best quarterback to suit up for the Bills since Jim Kelly who retired after the 1996 season. Yes it helps that he has a receiving core which looks to be one of the better ones in the league and the team's opponents through two weeks will probably each finish the season with lopsided losing records and both may have top-five draft picks in 2021. But Allen looks confident, is making much better decisions and has improved his throwing accuracy - something which the pundits who panned his high pick in the 2018 draft said couldn't be coached.

A much tougher test comes this week when the Los Angeles Rams come to the empty confines of what is now called Bills Stadium (after New Era negotiated its way out of a long term naming agreement). The Rams are 2-0 after a close home win over the Cowboys and an decisive performance yesterday in Philadelphia. Quarterback Jared Goff looks to be playing at his 2018 level which was good enough for a trip to the Superbowl (Saints fans may disagree) that season. The two teams have met only 12 times with the Bills holding a 7-5 margin. The last time the Rams came to Orchard Park was in 2012 when they pulled out a 15-12 win. Buffalo won 30-19 in Los Angeles in 2016.

The "attendance" at yesterday's game in South Florida was listed as slightly more than 11,000 but it looked to me that there were really only about 4-5,000 people in the stadium. The weather, which caused a near 40 minute game delay, could have kept some away. The health risk of attending a live sporting event in Florida may have done so too. Whether games are played before no fans or only a few fans seems almost irrelevant through two weeks of NFL play. Television ratings are strong and the games I have seen have been entertaining. Pandemic or not, the NFL is unstoppable. But then we always knew that.