Reports of declining NFL television ratings were easy to dismiss or explain away during the first couple of weeks of the season but, now at the halfway mark, the lower numbers are both consistent and significant. Many theories abound as to why.
Here are the facts: Overall, NFL television viewership in 2016 is down 12% from a year ago. Prime time games are suffering much more than Sunday afternoon broadcasts with Thursday night viewership down 18%, Sunday night games down 19% and Monday Night Football off a quite remarkable 24%.
A poll was conducted recently for Seaton Hall University which asked respondents why they were watching less NFL on television. Here are some of the reasons respondents provided and some other theories which have been proposed to explain the sudden and relatively steep drop in the number of Americans watching NFL games on television:
1. The Presidential election: It is common for sports television viewership to decline modestly in election years. This year, (and the Trump campaign complained about this when the debate schedule was released) two of the three debates between the two main candidates took place at the same time as NFL prime time broadcasts and this year's debates attracted the highest viewership since 1980.
2. Head Injuries: Maybe the long list of stories about the shattered lives of some former NFL players who suffered repeated head trauma during their playing days has finally driven some viewers away from the sport.
3. Domestic Violence: The NFL's response over the past few years to incidents of domestic abuse on the part of players has generally been slow and muted and has added to the list of bad news stories about the league.
4. Over-saturation: With the move to a full schedule of Thursday night games a few years ago, the NFL decided that it had to own not one, not two but three prime time television nights each week. I can remember when Monday Night football was the only prime time football game every week and there was something special about it. Not to mention that this season's prime time game slate has featured neither compelling story lines nor particularly competitive games.
5. Cord cutters watching in sports bars: the cable industry can rhyme off the statistics (but they don't want to) of its declining traditional customer base but maybe some of us who have ditched cable in favour of a combination of OTA and Netflix are still watching football at our friends places, in sports bars or elsewhere. It's nearly impossible to measure this.
6. National anthem protests: This is perhaps the most interesting one and a bit of mystery too as the national anthem is generally not part of the broadcast of an NFL game (except for the Superbowl). If the fact that some players are not standing during the anthem (or making other gestures to support the protest idea started by 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick) has caused some viewers to tune out, then either those viewers were never very serious fans or they need to grow thicker skins.
The fact remains that, even with significantly lower ratings, nothing can touch the NFL in terms of delivering eyeballs to television advertisers. Take a massively large number and reduce it by 12% and you've still got a very big number. The real question is whether the current decline in viewership is the new normal or if it will rebound as the season progresses and in future years.
I actually watched very little of the Bills game yesterday. CTV decided that what I really wanted to watch at 1pm was the entire scoreless overtime period of the London game between Washington and the Bengals which caused me to miss most of the first quarter. Then, as the Patriots seemed to be toying with the Bills, I lost interest and spent more time cutting firewood than I did watching the debacle.
Brady threw for 315 yards and 4 touchdowns - a typical game in Buffalo for him. With the Bills depleted offensive line-up, the game was going to come down to whether the defence could stop Brady. They couldn't. They never have been able to and there was no reason to think that it would start yesterday. At 7-1, the Patriots are the clear favourites to win it all again this year. Brady and Belichick will move on some day but it seems clear that the Bills will not realize any meaningful success until they do.
Up next: Monday Night Football at Seattle the night before the election. As a cord-cutter, I will have to find a place to watch it as ESPN is not an OTA broadcaster where I live.
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