Chiefs 32, Bills 29

In the Superbowl era (post 1967), the Buffalo Bills have played in the AFC Championship Game seven times and, thanks to four consecutive wins from 1991 through 1994, they still maintain a winning record of four wins and three losses. The first of those three losses came in January, 1989 in Cincinnati after posting a 12-4 1988 break-out season which began their great run under Marv Levy and Jim Kelly. The Bills were clearly punching above their weight that year after beating the Houston Oilers at home in the Divisional round. The Bengals won the game 21-10 and went on to lose the Superbowl to the 49ers. After the four consecutive wins, the next AFC title game for Buffalo was four years ago – in the COVID season of 2020. After narrowly beating the Colts in the Wildcard round, then the Ravens in the Divisional round, the Bills, again probably punching well above their weight, took a 9-0 lead against the Chiefs in Kansas City before falling 38-24. That loss set their record in conference title games back to 4-2.

Entering last night’s contest at Arrowhead Stadium, the Bills were two-point underdogs but a plurality of pundits whose prognostications I came across thought that their time had finally come and that the Chiefs drive for an unprecedented third straight Superbowl title would fall short and the Bills would go to their first Superbowl in 31 years. It was not to be as we know on this sobering Monday morning. A 32-29 loss has broken the hearts of Bills Mafia and will cause me to perform my annual ritual of putting away my Bills hats, shirts, jackets and pins until late July when training camp begins. The difference this time, compared to the two other title game losses, is that I really did feel that they would win the game last night. I was feeling pretty good all day long – a magnificent cross-country ski in powdery fluffy snow under blue Muskoka skies followed by a relaxing and rejuvenating sauna, a few dunks in the lake, a couple of beers, lasagna, coleslaw and a cheery pie for dinner. But they lost.

Over the past week, after the Bills beat the Ravens, my thoughts naturally turned to the possibility of the Bills making it to the Superbowl in New Orleans. Had they been successful last night, as a season ticket holder, I presumably would have been offered the option to enter a lottery of sorts for a shot at a pair of the block of tickets which the NFL allocates to each participating team. How many tickets would Bills fans be allocated? How would the lottery work? Would it be based on subscription seniority or on the quality of currently held season tickets or would it just simply be a “luck-of-the-draw” lottery? What would our chances be? When would we learn any of these details? These questions swirled in my mind over the past week as I looked with mild amusement and some trepidation at the possibility of camping on Lake Pontchartrain. Thankfully, there’s no reason now to fret about accommodations in Louisiana or the answers to any of these other questions. I still know none of them except that my friend Steve whose seats are next to mine in section 111 managed to get to three of the four Superbowls 30 years ago by way of the lottery. He only missed the first one against the Giants. His dad has been a season ticket holder since the 1960s and he was pretty sure that their very high level of seniority helped them in the lotteries. As for finding accommodations in Minneapolis, Pasadena and Atlanta 30 years ago, they booked hotels in places which were a couple of hours drive from the Superbowl venues, rented vehicles and drove in the to host cities for the games. I do obviously hope to learn the answers to the lottery questions one day. Maybe I’ll know a year from now.

The countdown to the opening of the new Highmark Stadium is now well underway. Only one season remains to be played at what I will now call by its original name, Rich Stadium, the brutalist concrete slab built in 1973 about 20 miles south of Buffalo in the sleepy town of Orchard Park. Its staggering 80,000 seats almost doubled the capacity of the Bills previous home, War Memorial Stadium which opened in 1937. Its nickname was “the Rockpile” so perhaps we should use “the Slab” to describe Rich Stadium as it now enters its final year as an NFL venue. I didn’t attend my first game there until 1988 – a 9-6 Bills win over the Jets which featured a blocked field goal attempt by Fred Smerlas and fans running onto the field and tearing down the goalposts to celebrate a division win. I have many other fond memories of great games and great wins there and some not-so-fond memories of ridiculously boorish fan behaviour and epic traffic jams. The boorish fan behaviour has moderated considerably as the league’s efforts to make the stadium experience more family-friendly have paid off and the “Lord of the Flies” atmosphere thankfully is no more. As for the traffic exiting the parking lots, it’s as bad as ever and I really do hope that it is improved at the new stadium. I also really wish that Dalton Kincaid had caught that fourth down pass. If he had, I’d probably be packing up my tent for some Louisiana camping.         

Bills 27, Ravens 25

Event tickets now exist only electronically in our Apple Wallets, Google Wallets or any other phone-based wallet apps which may exist. It’s quite straightforward really – you just open the ticket on your phone and scan it on the reader at the gate. It’s much more secure than any form of paper tickets they tell us and I am sure they’re right about that. During the tailgate festivities outside Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park yesterday afternoon, I was catastrophizing about the chaos which would ensue should the wallet / scanner system go down for any length of time before the game. Tens of thousands of fans would either be late or might decide to crash the gates. What a nightmare something like that would be, I mused. Then shortly after 5.30pm, once through security, I scanned my phone several times and received not the reassuring beep of a successful scan but a series of incomprehensible error messages - not what you want to see on your phone with 70,000 well-lubricated Bills fans lined up behind you. This attracted the attention of a stadium staff member with a tablet in hand who pulled me aside and offered to help. There was a major issue today she explained with a Google Wallet update which had not reached many Samsung phones, obviously including mine. She could not have been more helpful and said several times that this was not my fault and that we would sort it all out. After verifying my identity (she had my season ticket account details on her tablet) she sent me a text message with a security code for me to re-type into an email and send somewhere. Helpless without reading glasses as I was, I handed her my phone and asked her to drive. She obliged and a couple of minutes later I was able to “scan in” on her tablet and I was finally on my way. I was worried enough about containing Derrick Henry and didn’t need that kind of stress as game-time approached. These electronic app-based systems work just fine – until they don’t.

I started on my journey as a fan of the Buffalo Bills in 1978 and 1979 and by 1980 I was fully committed. In January 1981, still on Christmas break from university, I was picking up some hours as a dishwasher at the Crock and Block restaurant in St. Catharines, Ont. In the bowels of the kitchen there, on Saturday January 3^rd I was able to catch the great Van Miller’s radio play-by-play call of the Bills first playoff game since 1974 as they fell in the Wildcard Round to the Chargers in San Diego. A year later they won a Wildcard game at Shea Stadium against the Jets then lost a heart-breaker at Cincinnati in the Divisional Round where on the potential game-tying touchdown drive, Joe Ferguson’s fourth down pass to Lou Piccone for a first down deep in Bengals territory was called back on a delay of game penalty. The Bengals then faced the Chargers a week later in the AFC Championship Game in what became known as the Freezer Bowl. The game-time temperature was minus 23C with sustained winds of 40kmh making for a windchill of minus 50C. I watched the game in London, Ont and I can clearly recall wondering why Americans choose to make football a winter sport. I’ve been wondering the same thing on-and-off ever since.

Weather forecasts in the days before last night’s NFL Divisional Round playoff game in Orchard Park portended the coldest weather to be experienced in this part of the world since the retreat of the glaciers some 10,000 years ago. No amount of insulated clothing or charcoal or electrified heated socks could keep us warm for six hours in conditions this harsh, we were warned. Turns out that the actual extreme cold weather is set to begin today and had not arrived by game-time yesterday or even by the time the game ended. Was it cold? Sure. Minus 8 or so which was fine with proper clothing which we certainly had. The game-changer was the battery-powered heated socks which performed and lasted as advertised. They seemed like a bit of a frivolous investment at $250 but the thought of them keeping my feet warm through many more January Bills home playoff games in the years to come actually makes my feet feel warmer even sitting here at my desk in north Toronto on this Buffalo Football Victory Monday.

What a game it was to be at: an electric crowd (maybe partly from the socks), a high stakes playoff game with light snow falling throughout and, in the end, a Bills win. The breaks certainly went their way as the Ravens turned the ball over three times to the Bills none and their long-tenured and reliable tight end Mark Andrews could not close the deal on a two-point conversion with a minute and thirty seconds remaining as the Bills hung on for a two-point win. Overtime seemed likely as I watched Lamar Jackson’s pass appear to land in his breadbasket but when the Bills fans in the section behind him erupted in joy, I knew he had dropped it. An easy recovery of an onside kick then one first down and it was time for victory formation. Now another January trip to Kansas City – this time for a berth in the Superbowl – is next week’s assignment for the Bills.

I got to bed just before 3am and I can say that I definitely haven’t been up that late since last year’s Divisional Round game against the Chiefs. Sitting in the parking lot for a solid hour after the game was much more enjoyable this time around as the Bills had won and the callers into WGR were happy. It took so long to finally get moving that as we inched along Southwestern Blvd toward to the 219, a convoy of sheriff’s vehicles escorted a group of buses around us and the traffic jam. We assumed that it was the Ravens players and staff enroute to the Buffalo airport for their miserable flight back to BWI. 30 minutes at the Peace Bridge then a series of lake-effect snow squalls were the last hurdles of the long but ultimately successful and enjoyable day and night.

“The right to play another week; another chance to go 1-0” is how Josh Allen described what his team accomplished last night. The Chiefs, with an extra day to prepare and playing at home will be ready. Can the Bills finally reverse the trend of playoff losses to the Chiefs? That’s why they play the games.  

Bills 31, Broncos 7

I found myself worrying more about the Ravens than the Broncos as the morning unfolded yesterday and I was hoping that wouldn’t jinx the Bills with the matter at hand – the matter of the Denver Broncos and their fearsome pass-rush, poised rookie quarterback and highly respected head coach. When the Broncos went up early with a long touchdown it seemed like my ill-advised foresight might cost us but it didn’t of course as the Bills cruised to a comfortable 31-7 win for the home fans in weather quite decent for mid-January in Orchard Park. But this morning I am more and more worried about these Ravens who come to town on Sunday night as the third seed in the AFC – the same as the Kansas City Chiefs were a year ago. Same time slot, same broadcast crew and the same seeding match-up with the third seed at the second seed. The main difference is that Taylor Swift will not be in the house.

Marv Levy, who turns 100 in August, famously said a few decades ago that to win in the NFL you must do two things: run the ball and stop the run. The game has evolved and that mantra doesn’t often apply in these times of high-flying passing offences and 41-38 games but sometimes it holds just as true as it did in the 1950s when Marv started coaching football. Yesterday was one of those times. The Bills dominated the Broncos in time of possession by more than a two-to-one margin mostly by running the ball very effectively. James Cook carried 23 times for 120 yards – an average of 5.2 yards per carry. In contrast, the Broncos featured back, Javonte Williams carried seven times for a paltry 29 yards. Marv would probably say that those two statistical measures – time of possession and rushing yards for and against – told the story of the game just like they would have in any decade in the history of the NFL.

I store my small Weber barbecue and my folding table - yes, the kind that I could jump off a van and land on, probably seriously injuring myself in the process – in an out-building at my cottage. I use it exclusively in Lot 7 at Highmark Stadium. On Friday, I went to get a snow shovel from that building and when I looked at the barbecue and table, I wondered if I would be loading them in my car before I left the cottage this time around. I figured that I would jinx things for sure were I to move them to the car before yesterday’s game was played but I did so within 30 minutes of the end of the game, along with a large bag of charcoal, lighter fluid and my heavy-duty Sorel boots. We are off to Orchard Park on Sunday for another winter evening playoff game and, while I really am worried about the Ravens, I am excited to be going once again to a football game which will be watched on television by tens of millions. Thankfully, I am past the point where I would or could jump on my folding table but I look forward to seeing other foolhardy Bills fans giving it a try. Not with my table of course.

With all but one of the Divisional round teams determined, pending tonight’s game between the Vikings and the Rams, the league announced the time slots for the four games after the Commanders win over the Bucs in Tampa. With then exception of the Bills v. Ravens, the match-ups are not as deliciously interesting as we might have hoped. The Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs kicks off the Divisional round at 4.30pm Saturday with the Chiefs listed now as 7.5-point favourites. That line opened at nine points and obviously some significant early money came in on the Texans who with an unlikely win over the Chiefs would give the Bills something more to play for the following evening – a chance to host the AFC Championship Game. It’s very difficult to imagine the Texans pulling off an upset of this magnitude but that’s why they play the games. Then on Saturday night, Washington plays the Lions in Detroit with the home team currently an 8.5-point favourite. Sunday at 3pm sees the winner of the Rams v. Vikings game play at Philadelphia.  

The Bills are favoured by one point against the Ravens. They say that home field is worth three points on the betting line so at a neutral site, the Ravens would be two-point favourites and if the game were to be played in Baltimore, they would be favoured by five. That line seems about right to me as Lamar Jackson, who has been spectacular recently, combined with the powerful running of Derek Henry, will present a huge challenge for the Bills “bend but don’t break” defence. Last time these teams met in the playoffs was four years ago in an empty Highmark Stadium when Taron Johnson intercepted Lamar Jackson in his own endzone and returned it more than 100 yards for a touchdown as the Bills went on to win 17-3. They will probably need a key turnover once again to win on Sunday night.

The game will feature the two top contenders for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award. The statistical edge does go Lamar Jackson but the intangible edge – maybe within the true meaning of “most valuable to his team” – edge probably goes to Josh Allen. There is no wrong choice here as in my view they are both fully deserving of the award. I would of course love to see Josh play his best game and lead the Bills to the AFC Championship Game and (easy for me to say), I would gladly trade that for Jackson winning the MVP.  

Patriots 23, Bills 16

I don’t think the lack of familiarity with the Buffalo Bills upcoming playoff opponent is any advantage to them but I really was not feeling good about the prospects of facing either the Dolphins or the Bengals in the upcoming Wildcard playoff game. Instead, the Denver Broncos, fresh off their 38-0 drubbing of the Chiefs back-ups yesterday at Mile High, come to Orchard Park on Sunday. I hope my slight sense of optimism doesn’t turn out to prove the “devil you know” proverb but I sense that there’s a certain satisfaction within Bills Mafia in these two particular devils being eliminated from contention for the seventh AFC playoff spot yesterday.

The Bills and Broncos have met only once in the playoffs in a game I remember very well: a tense, low-scoring AFC Championship Game played under sunny, calm and unseasonably mild conditions in Orchard Park 33 years ago. After a scoreless first half, Bills linebacker Carleton Bailey intercepted John Elway deep in Broncos territory and romped easily into the endzone for the Bills only touchdown of the day enroute to a 10-7 win. The Bills would then be crushed by Washington two weeks later in Minneapolis. The Broncos last visit to Buffalo is one that Bills fans would rather forget: a 24-22 loss in November, 2023. Wil Lutz made his second attempt at a game-winning field goal attempt count after he initially missed but was afforded a second chance on account of the Bills having 12 men on the field first time around.

This Broncos team comes to Buffalo with one of the best head coaches in the league in Sean Payton and an outstanding rookie quarterback in Bo Nix who is the first rookie quarterback to earn the Broncos starting job out of training camp since the team’s current General Manager John Elway did the same thing some 41 years earlier. The Broncos defence has been very good all season as it leads the NFL with 63 sacks but the offence under Nix is improving every week. This may be wishful thinking but I got the sense watching them shred the Chiefs back-ups yesterday and clinching the team’s first playoff berth since winning the Superbowl nine years ago that this was the peak of success for them – in the 2024 season anyway. They are clearly in an ascendency but my hunch is that their rookie quarterback might be overwhelmed by the hostile crowd, the weather, the situation and that their climb will end on Sunday with a loss to the Bills.

I won’t be attending the game on Sunday, although the 1pm start time is tempting. I’m using the same methodology as I did last year in terms of which playoff game(s) to attend. Winter football games in Buffalo are a big effort: Practically speaking in terms of potentially stressful and slow winter driving, clothing choices, the need for headlamps and hot food planning; psychologically speaking in terms of approach, attitude and mindset. Being outside for six or seven hours running only whatever heat your body can generate by standing is certainly a challenge and depending on exactly how cold it is, can be uncomfortable no matter how warmly you dress. Could be the year to finally invest in heated socks.

The plan, like last year, is to skip the Wildcard Round game and attend the Divisional Round game in two weeks time. The thinking is as follows: the Divisional Round - call it the conference semi-finals - is more important than the Wildcard Round in terms of being only two games away from the Superbowl. The plan is obviously conditional on the Bills winning this game against the Broncos. If they lose, then there will be no game to attend and the possibly flawed logic I’m using is that if they do lose the Wildcard game, then I wouldn’t have wanted to be there for a playoff loss anyway. I used the same logic last year by passing on the Pittsburgh Wildcard game and attending the Chiefs Divisional game which the Bills lost. It was an entertaining game, watched by some 50 million on television, and I don’t regret having gone. I regret the three-point loss to the eventual Superbowl champions but the pre-game excitement, having Taylor Swift in the house and the gripping one-score game were all well worth it. Being stuck in the parking lot for a solid hour afterward without moving and the late and dark drive home, not so much. If the stars align and the Bills win their Wildcard and Divisional games and the Chiefs somehow manage to lose their Divisional game, then the AFC Championship Game will be played in Orchard Park and I will end up at winter games in two consecutive weeks. Let’s hope that’s how it plays out.

Yesterday’s full slate of games featured more coverage of certain specific player contract incentives than I can remember in the past. James Cook tied the Bills record for rushing touchdowns at 16 which was held by none other than OJ Simpson. Von Miller recorded his sixth sack, Sam Martin and Mack Hollins both reached incentives and earned bonuses accordingly. Bucs receiver Mike Evans caught a pass near the end of their game – when the team would have been in victory formation - to go over 1,000 receiving yards for the 11^th consecutive season, tying a record held by Jerry Rice. At one point, I wondered if some cheap owners may be tempted to order that certain players either not play or be pulled from games before they earn their incentives but someone pointed out that this would severely limit a team’s ability to attract free agents in the future. I wonder if these incentives should be quite so publicly known as they are. Players running around celebrating bonuses earned just doesn’t seem like a good look for the league.

So, an unusual 1pm Sunday game – the third of six games on the slate next weekend, including a Monday night game where the poor Vikings, having lost their chance at the one-seed last night in Detroit, must travel to the west coast to face the Rams. After 272 regular season games, there are 13 NFL playoff games remaining, including the Superbowl.