Patriots 23, Bills 16

I don’t think the lack of familiarity with the Buffalo Bills upcoming playoff opponent is any advantage to them but I really was not feeling good about the prospects of facing either the Dolphins or the Bengals in the upcoming Wildcard playoff game. Instead, the Denver Broncos, fresh off their 38-0 drubbing of the Chiefs back-ups yesterday at Mile High, come to Orchard Park on Sunday. I hope my slight sense of optimism doesn’t turn out to prove the “devil you know” proverb but I sense that there’s a certain satisfaction within Bills Mafia in these two particular devils being eliminated from contention for the seventh AFC playoff spot yesterday.

The Bills and Broncos have met only once in the playoffs in a game I remember very well: a tense, low-scoring AFC Championship Game played under sunny, calm and unseasonably mild conditions in Orchard Park 33 years ago. After a scoreless first half, Bills linebacker Carleton Bailey intercepted John Elway deep in Broncos territory and romped easily into the endzone for the Bills only touchdown of the day enroute to a 10-7 win. The Bills would then be crushed by Washington two weeks later in Minneapolis. The Broncos last visit to Buffalo is one that Bills fans would rather forget: a 24-22 loss in November, 2023. Wil Lutz made his second attempt at a game-winning field goal attempt count after he initially missed but was afforded a second chance on account of the Bills having 12 men on the field first time around.

This Broncos team comes to Buffalo with one of the best head coaches in the league in Sean Payton and an outstanding rookie quarterback in Bo Nix who is the first rookie quarterback to earn the Broncos starting job out of training camp since the team’s current General Manager John Elway did the same thing some 41 years earlier. The Broncos defence has been very good all season as it leads the NFL with 63 sacks but the offence under Nix is improving every week. This may be wishful thinking but I got the sense watching them shred the Chiefs back-ups yesterday and clinching the team’s first playoff berth since winning the Superbowl nine years ago that this was the peak of success for them – in the 2024 season anyway. They are clearly in an ascendency but my hunch is that their rookie quarterback might be overwhelmed by the hostile crowd, the weather, the situation and that their climb will end on Sunday with a loss to the Bills.

I won’t be attending the game on Sunday, although the 1pm start time is tempting. I’m using the same methodology as I did last year in terms of which playoff game(s) to attend. Winter football games in Buffalo are a big effort: Practically speaking in terms of potentially stressful and slow winter driving, clothing choices, the need for headlamps and hot food planning; psychologically speaking in terms of approach, attitude and mindset. Being outside for six or seven hours running only whatever heat your body can generate by standing is certainly a challenge and depending on exactly how cold it is, can be uncomfortable no matter how warmly you dress. Could be the year to finally invest in heated socks.

The plan, like last year, is to skip the Wildcard Round game and attend the Divisional Round game in two weeks time. The thinking is as follows: the Divisional Round - call it the conference semi-finals - is more important than the Wildcard Round in terms of being only two games away from the Superbowl. The plan is obviously conditional on the Bills winning this game against the Broncos. If they lose, then there will be no game to attend and the possibly flawed logic I’m using is that if they do lose the Wildcard game, then I wouldn’t have wanted to be there for a playoff loss anyway. I used the same logic last year by passing on the Pittsburgh Wildcard game and attending the Chiefs Divisional game which the Bills lost. It was an entertaining game, watched by some 50 million on television, and I don’t regret having gone. I regret the three-point loss to the eventual Superbowl champions but the pre-game excitement, having Taylor Swift in the house and the gripping one-score game were all well worth it. Being stuck in the parking lot for a solid hour afterward without moving and the late and dark drive home, not so much. If the stars align and the Bills win their Wildcard and Divisional games and the Chiefs somehow manage to lose their Divisional game, then the AFC Championship Game will be played in Orchard Park and I will end up at winter games in two consecutive weeks. Let’s hope that’s how it plays out.

Yesterday’s full slate of games featured more coverage of certain specific player contract incentives than I can remember in the past. James Cook tied the Bills record for rushing touchdowns at 16 which was held by none other than OJ Simpson. Von Miller recorded his sixth sack, Sam Martin and Mack Hollins both reached incentives and earned bonuses accordingly. Bucs receiver Mike Evans caught a pass near the end of their game – when the team would have been in victory formation - to go over 1,000 receiving yards for the 11^th consecutive season, tying a record held by Jerry Rice. At one point, I wondered if some cheap owners may be tempted to order that certain players either not play or be pulled from games before they earn their incentives but someone pointed out that this would severely limit a team’s ability to attract free agents in the future. I wonder if these incentives should be quite so publicly known as they are. Players running around celebrating bonuses earned just doesn’t seem like a good look for the league.

So, an unusual 1pm Sunday game – the third of six games on the slate next weekend, including a Monday night game where the poor Vikings, having lost their chance at the one-seed last night in Detroit, must travel to the west coast to face the Rams. After 272 regular season games, there are 13 NFL playoff games remaining, including the Superbowl.