Looking this morning at tie-breaker scenarios, if the Bills win at New England on Saturday and finish the season tied with the Patriots with the same win/loss record, the Patriots hold the tie-breaker and that can not and will not change over the course of the next two games. According to the NFL's tie-breaker rules which determine division champions for teams in the same division with identical records, the winner is determined by the following, in this order: first is head-to-head play; if the Bills win on Saturday, the teams would be tied in head-to-head play at 1-1. Second is each team's record against their other division opponents; if the Bills win their next two games and the Patriots lose at home in week 17 against the Dolphins, the teams again would be tied. The third (and in this case the determining ) tie-breaker is the two teams record among common opponents during the season. This is where the Patriots hold the edge, with a two game advantage in this category. Both teams lost to Baltimore this season but the Patriots won against the Eagles and the Browns - and the Bills lost to both of those teams earlier in the season.
For the Bills, the securing of their first home playoff game since the 1996 season (Jim Kelly's last) remains possible but will require that they not only win at Foxborough on Saturday but then they must put their faith in Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Miami Dolphins to win on the road in week 17, also in Foxborough, in a very meaningful game for the Patriots and one on which nothing much rides for the Dolphins. It could happen: the Dolphins will obviously have nothing to lose and can dig into their bag of tricks and find fake punts and flea-flickers along with their New Year's hats and balloons. But I don't give them much of a chance really. And if the Bills don't win on Saturday, it's all moot anyway. Either way, the Bills, who, if they do not capture the division, can finish no worse than the 5th seed in the AFC and would play at Houston in the wildcard round if the current standings hold. Buffalo's week 17 opponent at home is the New York Jets.
Although they are likely locked into the 5th seed and will probably not play at home in January, last night the Bills secured their first 10-win season in 20 years and also clinched a playoff birth for the second time in Sean McDermott's three seasons as Bills head coach. For a team which has endured also-ran status and has seen a revolving door of general managers, coaches and quarterbacks over the past two decades, it must feel pretty good. And it must feel quite different from the miraculous way they made their way into the playoffs two years ago as the team watched from its dressing room as Andy Dalton completed an unlikely 4th down touchdown pass in Baltimore. That was lucky. This is different. The team has a top-three defence and a quarterback who seems able to seize the moment in big games before national TV audiences.
It may take me a few days for me to recover from staying up way past my usual bedtime and enduring the stress of last night's 4th quarter which saw the Bills score 10 points and over come a 10-7 deficit against a good Steeler defence. It ended up taking two late interceptions - of the four the Bills made - to seal the win and send Bills nation into celebration mode. Third-string Steeler quarterback Devlin "Duck" Hodges played competently last night at times but the difference in the game, which matched two of the best defences in the league, was Josh Allen's play at quarterback. Although his statistics from last night look unimpressive, he did what was needed to win when it counted most. The first-ever NFL quarterback from the University of Wyoming has found a home in Buffalo.
Up next for the Bills is the aforementioned game in Foxborough on Saturday. Amazingly, it will be their third nationally televised game in the last four - and last week's game against the Ravens was the lead game on CBS and was seen by all of the "neutral" markets in the US (markets which have no team or whose team wasn't playing in the 1pm timeslot). The first two have gone well as the team posted wins in Dallas and Pittsburgh. Maybe next year, there will be a prime time home game. I'm getting weary just thinking about what time I'll get to bed after that one.
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