Bills 31, Broncos 7

I found myself worrying more about the Ravens than the Broncos as the morning unfolded yesterday and I was hoping that wouldn’t jinx the Bills with the matter at hand – the matter of the Denver Broncos and their fearsome pass-rush, poised rookie quarterback and highly respected head coach. When the Broncos went up early with a long touchdown it seemed like my ill-advised foresight might cost us but it didn’t of course as the Bills cruised to a comfortable 31-7 win for the home fans in weather quite decent for mid-January in Orchard Park. But this morning I am more and more worried about these Ravens who come to town on Sunday night as the third seed in the AFC – the same as the Kansas City Chiefs were a year ago. Same time slot, same broadcast crew and the same seeding match-up with the third seed at the second seed. The main difference is that Taylor Swift will not be in the house.

Marv Levy, who turns 100 in August, famously said a few decades ago that to win in the NFL you must do two things: run the ball and stop the run. The game has evolved and that mantra doesn’t often apply in these times of high-flying passing offences and 41-38 games but sometimes it holds just as true as it did in the 1950s when Marv started coaching football. Yesterday was one of those times. The Bills dominated the Broncos in time of possession by more than a two-to-one margin mostly by running the ball very effectively. James Cook carried 23 times for 120 yards – an average of 5.2 yards per carry. In contrast, the Broncos featured back, Javonte Williams carried seven times for a paltry 29 yards. Marv would probably say that those two statistical measures – time of possession and rushing yards for and against – told the story of the game just like they would have in any decade in the history of the NFL.

I store my small Weber barbecue and my folding table - yes, the kind that I could jump off a van and land on, probably seriously injuring myself in the process – in an out-building at my cottage. I use it exclusively in Lot 7 at Highmark Stadium. On Friday, I went to get a snow shovel from that building and when I looked at the barbecue and table, I wondered if I would be loading them in my car before I left the cottage this time around. I figured that I would jinx things for sure were I to move them to the car before yesterday’s game was played but I did so within 30 minutes of the end of the game, along with a large bag of charcoal, lighter fluid and my heavy-duty Sorel boots. We are off to Orchard Park on Sunday for another winter evening playoff game and, while I really am worried about the Ravens, I am excited to be going once again to a football game which will be watched on television by tens of millions. Thankfully, I am past the point where I would or could jump on my folding table but I look forward to seeing other foolhardy Bills fans giving it a try. Not with my table of course.

With all but one of the Divisional round teams determined, pending tonight’s game between the Vikings and the Rams, the league announced the time slots for the four games after the Commanders win over the Bucs in Tampa. With then exception of the Bills v. Ravens, the match-ups are not as deliciously interesting as we might have hoped. The Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs kicks off the Divisional round at 4.30pm Saturday with the Chiefs listed now as 7.5-point favourites. That line opened at nine points and obviously some significant early money came in on the Texans who with an unlikely win over the Chiefs would give the Bills something more to play for the following evening – a chance to host the AFC Championship Game. It’s very difficult to imagine the Texans pulling off an upset of this magnitude but that’s why they play the games. Then on Saturday night, Washington plays the Lions in Detroit with the home team currently an 8.5-point favourite. Sunday at 3pm sees the winner of the Rams v. Vikings game play at Philadelphia.  

The Bills are favoured by one point against the Ravens. They say that home field is worth three points on the betting line so at a neutral site, the Ravens would be two-point favourites and if the game were to be played in Baltimore, they would be favoured by five. That line seems about right to me as Lamar Jackson, who has been spectacular recently, combined with the powerful running of Derek Henry, will present a huge challenge for the Bills “bend but don’t break” defence. Last time these teams met in the playoffs was four years ago in an empty Highmark Stadium when Taron Johnson intercepted Lamar Jackson in his own endzone and returned it more than 100 yards for a touchdown as the Bills went on to win 17-3. They will probably need a key turnover once again to win on Sunday night.

The game will feature the two top contenders for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award. The statistical edge does go Lamar Jackson but the intangible edge – maybe within the true meaning of “most valuable to his team” – edge probably goes to Josh Allen. There is no wrong choice here as in my view they are both fully deserving of the award. I would of course love to see Josh play his best game and lead the Bills to the AFC Championship Game and (easy for me to say), I would gladly trade that for Jackson winning the MVP.